So, given this is just a final table run, posted for that reason, not posted to highlight the scam that is FTP- let us watch it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjPmBAnuI1Y

First all in, JJ vs 99, 99 flos set, JJ makes runner runner straight.

Next all in, AJ top pair holds up to take two shorter stacks out the game.

Next one- A2 vs AQ, flop blanks, turn is 2, AQ has been beat- but no, the river is the queen! Nice one AQ.

AK vs AJ, AJ flops double gut shot, AK sweats it out but holds up. Close one on the flop though.

The chip leader in this 3 way pot has KK, the two shorter stacks happen to both flop TP with solid kickers. He knocks both of them out of the game.

Now down to 4 handed, and the VERY next hand, turns gives flopped bottom pair two pair, but also gives the other player nut flush draw and gut shot. How convenient

Next all in, deep stack wins the flop when he turns the 9.

etc etc

There's a difference between seeing an obvious rig and the shills who will say it is variance whenever an incredible run of cards occurs.

It's all about trust.

Also, I never mentioned regulation as a method of stopping rigging.

No because even some intelligent people think their bad run of results is variance. Forums are full of misinformation on how bad 'variance' can be, and many regs lap it up, grinding through incredible swings thinking that they are truly playing real poker.

Everybody can run bad, but there comes a time when you just have to say enough is enough.

FTP was never random, end of story.

Does this mean we can or can't detect rigging?

But can you not see, and 'incredible' run of cards is exactly what variance does explain.


If you get 1 million people to toss a coin 20 times in a row and film themselves doing it, chances are you will get someone who gets all heads. You'll almost certainly get several people getting runs of 15 heads.

Getting one of those films and posting it on YT proves nothing.

I'm afraid to say, TPTK27, that you are just demonstrating over and over that you haven't a clue about variance.

So very true.

Even if they all show hands at showdown that seem way too strong % wise?

Just deal two players face up and deal flop turn and river. The hands blank so often.

This isn't evidenced at FTP.

You can blame variance all you like.

The irony being you prob never even played FTP so had no experience of the BS there anyway!

To hear a response from someone thats actually played the OLP scam for years, sure cant disagree with one thing you said here. All of it is right on the money.

No, I understand it quite well.

I know it can be sick, but there's a difference between the FTP deal and 'variance'.

I've played 1 million plus online hands, I know all about downswings and variance, believe me!

Experience and instincts tell me FTP is/was not random.

Also, flat out evidence- my FTP thread challenged people to post examples of weak flopped hands getting to showdown vs the PFR in non all before the river hands- not one person posted a HH.

The videos of final tables show the rig in action over and over-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVL_2...eature=related

First two all ins, coin flips, the deep stack wins both.

Then deep stack wins again, then again with J9 vs KT.

JJ vs A9, deep stack again

garfield wins another all in flip to take out the short stack

SHORT STACKS WINS A COIN FLIP -it does happen sometimes!!!!!!!!!

We then get heads up, and see both players flop trips, then one turns a full house. Nice hand to finish the game FTP

Please explain it, including both the precise mathematical meaning and the specific implications of that for poker. In your own words.

I can see nothing there that would not be expected to happen many times over all the sequences of hands played. You still do not seem to understand that you cannot show anything about the fairness of the deal with a few hands. The ONLY way to do it is with proper statistical analysis over hundreds of thousands of hands, at a minimum.

Be sure to demonstrate that you understand the relevance of sample size as that seems to be eluding you at the moment.

ETA: LOL, Darkus got in ahead of me there.

All of you guys wasting time debating TPTK should read this thread first

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...ssion-1132764/

and you will see what a standard debate with him is like (in this case with a bunch of much more polite stats guys and the less polite me), so if you play with him under his terms (which is happening so far) you will get pretty much nowhere.

The guy creates a new rigged theory every month or so for different rooms and just argues for the sake of arguing because he is a conspiracy addict, so this is how he does his hobby with online poker, and he has had variations of this debate thousands of times over all sorts of topics (9/11, economic recession, moon landing etc), so he is hardly a newbie with this type of back and forth.

He is a time sink, and frankly he will not "lose" the debate based on how it is going so far so proceed at your own risk.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ--ukuUsbg

Look at this donk, the kind of player FTP was designed for, keeps them coming back and back.

Gets all in with complete junk, didn't even realise he'd sucked out. notice the elaborate excitement hands- sets up boards that leave the hand with pure drama going into the river.

Then dominated middle pair deep stacks out on top pair to take him out the game.

It happens too much in these games for it be even be considered anything like random.

And you've never seen that live?

To prove it 100% yes I agree.

But common sense tells us these runs, over and over is not random.

Is it possible every video I've looked at shows these runs, I guess so.

But combined with MY experiene of FTP- a good 300,000+ hands, then I can be 99.99% sure their games were rigged.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ--ukuUsbg

Of the tiny amount of hands, we see two sick beats- top pair turns trips only to get rivered by a flush- then the deep stak with middle pair turns trips.

These scenarios are RARE in poker heads up, by looking at final table videos where players put the money in light, I think it complettely exposes how rigged FTP was.

Not in TPTK's world.

It's a magic world where one animal produced pork chops, sausages, and bacon.

In that world AA always wins and you'll never make a cent with J9o.

Yes, but nowhere near the % I see it on FTP.

And if somebody says but you play more hands online....

So you think all the videos' I've posted are just standard random deal?

LOL

And yet with all those tens of thousands of players and hundreds of millions of hands not one person ever did an analysis and nailed them? Strange.

Any riggie who had the skill to do an analysis would have pretty quickly discovered that there is no evidence of rigging and would probably stopped being a riggie.

It's the hardcore rigtards who haven't the first clue about proper analysis nor how to go about it that cling to their paranoid theories.

Let's step back and approach this from another angle.

- It is certainly possible that each video I've picked shows one extreme of variance. So, statisitcally, it is possible I've randomly picked videos that highlight a run of cards that go against expectation. And within variance.

- Given this is the less likely way cards run over the long term, one can logically assume that searching for FTP final tables should show a higher % of videos with seemingly normal runs of cards. % wise, these videos should be higher.

- Somebody find a FTP final table video showing a normal looking run of cards.

It shouldn't be hard to find, although I can't find any

No, they are unusual runs of the type you would expect to see from time to time if observing a large number of poker games.

Nothing to see there.

Move along.

Have you ever heard of the weak anthropic principle?

Can you see how something similar might be relevant, here?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ytbj...eature=related

Wonder if TPTK will do an analysis of this FT video and find all the rigs.

This guy is not particularly good (his bet sizing is pretty funny at times), but this would be interesting one for him to analyze, especially the hand at 5:15 (Ac7c) in since that hand pretty much invalidates TPTK's magical rigged theory at Tilt.

His opponent is quite bad (ie: a donk)

Others are free to ask TPTK to look at this video, since TPTK kind of avoids me after receiving a smack down in the thread in the probability forum.

Have fun all!