So dig up some of the posts from the stats guys and tell us where you disagree with their methodology.

How many poker players want all of their hands just out there for anyone to analyse?

but none of this really matters, since we do have enough info to draw reliable conclusions. You can say its suspicious all you want, and may say that its reason enough not to trust them in general, but you can't draw a specific conclusion on rigging based on them not providing what you asked for. Even with Pitbull, while it seems very likely that SOMETHING shady was going on, we can't conclude exactly what shady thing was going on because they opted to close shop rather than give players their hand histories.

to repeat: they decided to close up shop rather than give players their handhistories. Do you think that maybe they were afraid of what would be found out if they did give out the histories? Why do you think they might have been afraid of that?

We are 'towing' our own line.

We are as anxious as anyone to expose real shenanigans.

It's just that we need some Evidence before we can start to do anything.

It's rather like someone going to the police and saying they think someone is a serial killer with absolutely no evidence, just a vague feeling that there aren't as many people around as they think there should be.

Nice - lol!

haha! wp!

I know that seemed like a joke, but it has a serious aspect.

That's exactly equivalent to what the committed riggies are doing.

They are claiming that something is happening that would leave a lot of easily discoverable evidence without any sign of that evidence.

They keep coming back with meta-argument: e.g. "you support the sites as if your life depended on it" or "you don't play poker" both of which are utterly irrelevant, in an attempt to deflect from their lack of anything.

1. No I couldn't be bothered, it's too time consuming and I have always said people should play online and make up their own mind, preferably helped by opinions and stats of players they trust, rather than listen to arguments of people who seem to argue one way or another as if their life or livelihood depends upon it. Personally I'd rather spend time on things that mean a lot to me. Partner, relations, health, money, poker, having an enjoyable life. I look at this thread as an entertainment and occasionally contribute, but that's as far as it goes. Others can do the work.

2. Not many, although some could benefit from others seeing what they are doing, because good players change and adapt their game continually. My suggestion would be for all hands including hole cards with flops being avaialble for an independent watchdog to evaluate. It would be similar to medical records, which are available only to those in the profession. So a professional government adjudicator would be able to analyse them.

What I would like to see available to all is every hand that is played and can be observed, to be recorded and open for everyone. So for instance when a hand is played to a showdown, each hand that is at the showdown is able to be observed, however those that are folded are not. All the viewable cards at showdown should be available across the board. Once the hands are played, those cards that are able to be seen at showdown should be available for everyone to see. As it is nothing can be proved one way or another, despite claims to the contrary.

Wiki said

"We are 'towing' our own line.

We are as anxious as anyone to expose real shenanigans.

It's just that we need some Evidence before we can start to do anything.

It's rather like someone going to the police and saying they think someone is a serial killer with absolutely no evidence, just a vague feeling that there aren't as many people around as they think there should be."

This is why you have circumstantial evidence. I am sure some can see why sites refuse to allow players to access across the board data as suspicious, along with the way regular contributors here tow the line. It is circumstantial evidence, and innocent people have been found guilty using this, and guilty people have been found guilty using this, (or innocent found innocent and guilty innocent). That does not make it true or false, it just looks suspicious.

This has been an enjoyable discussion, and in closing I hope online poker becomes safer and more transparent. The Full Tilt situation looks much better now. I was one of those who said I believed it would be bought by someone because there is so much money to be made, and that some or all of the money would be eventually paid back. Online poker has been like the Wild West for too long. Yes it looks fun on tv, but the reality is it was dirty, lawless, and dangerous.

It's worse, actually. Most of them are saying that there is evidence people are being murdered, and they have it, but they won't share it because they don't want to be made fun of.

Their pride is more important than stopping crime.

I'm not 100% sure that I give much credence to their claim that they have evidence. To be perfectly honest.

We have explained time and time again why you do not need 'across the board' data.

The problem is that ther riggies do not have the statistical nous to understand the explanation.

It's rather like someone who doesn't understand Pauli's Exclusion Principle insisting the quantum mechanics is rigged because the cannot see how Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle is derived.

Well, they may have what they perceive to be evidence. Whether that would satisfy anyone who understood statistics, variance, and sample size is another matter.

That's fine, but then you shouldn't say things like "you need all of the hole cards". We remain with the contentions of the stats guys being uncontested.

Watch out for Bovada....extremely fishy action on that site. I'm normally a live player, and I just deposited $50 to get some extra practice. Half my deposit is gone in a few hours with two card 2nd nut straight to 2 card nut straight, then an A6 calls my AJ down till I catch my gutshot wheel on the river, he has 6 high straight. Last few hands I had the same player call my preflop all in w 4-7 and catch a straight, next hand my AT runs into his queens. It seem I'm getting unusually high percentages of playable hands, and almost every showdown involves serious coolers. It just doesn't fit with my experience of normal hand strengths. Is anyone else seeing this?

That's why you cannot be taken seriously other than having a silly, pointless debate with at times.

Cool, the upper part of your range here is getting into a silly debate, so nothing wrong with that, but then you do not expect anyone to take you seriously I assume?

I also think it is nice that you would like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony.


You can see all hands that went to showdown (even that were mucked) in your hand history. Pokerstars even has a nice replay button you can push and see the hand played again with all the hands that went to showdown exposed!

There are even these new fangled programs like Holdem Manager that will also remember every hand you ever played as well!

Basically all the information you would like to see exists. However, you still have that lingering issue...

All the best.

Basically why people complain about pokerstars being rigged is because incredible things happen way too often per session.

I played 1½ year on a certain site, I never ever, not even once, felt the cards were not genuinely random and fair. Odds always stayed in tact.

I then played on pokerstars for just a short period of time, in which I discovered that it was not real, and got the feeling of unfairness, before I even bothered to check up if other people were complaining.

I've played around 400 000 hands now and it feels unfair, not random. You never see innocent cards on turn and river.. always happen to hit a hand improvent to someone, instead of a random "crap card" not helping anyone.

I would like to kill the people at pokerstars for scamming people (yes sorry, I've already decided it's not random), and I hope the day comes when they get revealed.

How often should they happen?

Cool. Specify the specific situations on your site where the odds were correct and I will do a similar analysis on my million hand database from Stars and we can finally expose the truth.

You will of course have to show your database analysis for a baseline, but that should not be a problem I assume.

Let's get to the bottom of this!


Hmm, not sure how to filter my Holdem Manager database for that. Perhaps you can show me how you filtered for feelings in your databsse for the other site.


If you give a specific example of what innocent cards means and show your database from the other site for a base sample, I will happily do the same test on my Pokerstars database.

How about we put murder plans on hold until we do our studies. Nop doubt we will see your results later today?

All the best.

I'm a US player, so I can't even play on PS, but I just put $50 on Bovada, and half of it was wiped out in a few hours, playing .05/.10. I'm so glad I didn't put a serious amount in, because the hands I've seen have been unbelievable. I can't remember the last time, playing live poker, I lost w/ 2 card 2nd nut straight to 2-card higher straight, but this same thing happened to me twice in an hour - and only playing one table. I also was against one player who was very loose calls all-in w 4-7 and of course he catches a straight. The two following hands, I had strong aces - once he beat me with queens, once he caught an 8 to beat me j8o. I have taken bad beats in live poker, but this consistency is unbelievable. Also, it seems like there I'm being dealt very few unplayable hands - sounds good at first, but they're always good enough to get my money in the pot so someone w trash can hit the board hard. I guess there is no way to prove this, but when you play enough poker, you just have a sense of what is normal and this doesn't feel right.

I take it you also tilt regularly at the poker tables, right? WP Sir.

P.S. Cool Story brah.

OK, so are you prepared to make you HH's available so that we can work on them and provide evidence that the deal is unfair?

Once that is done they will suffer a massive loss of custom and lose far more money than they ever made by rigging the deal.

It's all down to you. Just arrange to send you HH's to someone who can do the analysis, explain how the deal is rigged (i.e. what the effects are) and we can be on our way. You will end up becoming famous and something of a poker hero for your part in exposing these shenanigans. I envy you.

How often should they happen, and how often are they happening? You should get into contact with this guy, he has the exact opposite opinion you do.

It all depends on whether you have faith in the stats guys being genuinely independent. Would a crooked poker site only produce stats which favour them and leave out those that prove they are crooked, or manipulate data? Would they hire experts, stats people, and shills to say it was legit? That is why we need an independent government monitor.

I have never seen an analysis of all in winning players with a short stack against all in losing players with a big stack, for instance, or all in short stacks of a losing player against all in big stacks of a winning player.

Do I believe stats people who I don't know and may be suspect, or do I believe my own experience and that of winning players I play with? That's easy. Online supporters continue to say that HH's are all that is needed. This is clearly not the case, or it wouldn't still be argued. Just saying it is proved doesn't make it so. What we need is an independent government adjudicator.

With high blinds of 100,000/200,000 I could be all in with AA v KK and lose against a big stack held by a losing player on the bubble or close to the money and be left with 10 chips. I could then win four in a row with best hands and worst hands, then knocked out, and still have pretty good stats.

We need all the information, even if those who disagree say it's already proven. For the sake of the online game the information needs to be out there and transparent, and those who analyse need to be experts paid for by the government, then online poker needs to be both taxed and run fairly and transparently.

Personally I don't think it will happen, and dont care that much because I play poker, and only play the online version for fun. It is just I was recently ill, and so was my partner, so I understood why those who cannot get to a casino have the urge to play the online game. With proper government regulations, monitors, and transparent data availability, I would probably play online a bit more myself.

This is precisely why the whole audit/provide hand histories thing will never go anywhere. As soon as one thing that the riggies ask for is done they will start to nit-pick another.

How do we know the hands provided are the real ones?

How do we know that the haven't changed the algorithm immediately after the hands are provided?

How can we trust the company doing the audit?

How can we trust the stats people involved?

Did they test for this? OK, what about that?

It would just go on and on and is basically why we say you can never prove a negative.

On the other hand, all it would take is for one riggie - that's right, just one, to provide a clear explanation of the rig and the associated hand history set to blow the whole thing clean out of the water.

And yet with all the riggies with all their certainty, not one has stepped up to the crease.

No, you wouldn't. You'd just find something else to be suspicious about.

Sorry about this but I do actually agree with this one, pretty much all of it.

Really? Do people complain like this about live poker being rigged? Is it really hard to believe that someone would set up a website to scam people out of money? It would be unbelievably easy for them to do so. Sure, you can never completely eliminate all possibility of corruption in any enterprise, but there is a difference between reasonable, healthy suspicion and all-out paranoia. I know I would feel a lot more comfortable with a poker site being managed by a large, reputable organization with tight government oversight. Even PokerStars has a big name and a lot to lose, but these smaller operations (the only ones we can access in the US) really have nothing to lose and everything to gain by scamming. Does anyone know why Bodog suddenly split off to Bovada, some company in Lithuania? I'm a pretty trusting person, but my brief experience here has made me very suspicious, and I never had such suspicions against live cardrooms or even PS and FT when they were in the US.

What are you talking about? People like Laughing Assassin have done studies and published their work along with the source data. It's open to anyone to replicate the results. Other posters on this forum have described based on mathematics how to do the stats - it is open for anyone to critique what they have said. This isn't complex stuff for those with basic stats backgrounds. All you need to do is find someone who also understands basic stats and who disagrees with them. Then we can see if there's an issue. But no-one has contradicted them.

Laughing Assassin has offered to do whatever analysis riggies want. Why don't you pick one and ask him to run a test. Or, since you only trust your own hands, why not do the study on your own hands.

What? This is math! Why would we need an independant government adjudicator to explain stats 101?

You don't even know what the stats guys are saying, since you can't be bothered to look it up. Why don't you quote them and describe what you disagree with?