The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

[DonkoTheClown]

I am on Super Donko Rigtard Tilt...

3 super satellites for the Sunday Million in a row last night I bust right around the bubble and get $12 instead of the $215 seat. Get through fields of around a couple of hundred each just to run into a cooler or a bad beat...

If the site isnt rigged, my Karma must be...I am going to church...LOL!

[qpw]

Originally Posted by dugpe

we can tell you dont play poker.

Fascinating.

How?

Explanation or you are full of BS.

we just cant understand what you are doing here other than hear yourself talk.

Who is this 'we' of whom you speak?

Would it be you and all your other gimmick accounts?

Just crawl back into your hole and let those who have something intellegent to say post here.

So, you won't be posting any more.

[Rounding4Rent]

I third that notion.. Regardless of whether or not op is rigged or man landed on the moon qpw is deff. A weird dude.. I said it from the beginning he uses this forum as a vent for his miserable life.. Pretty obvious the guy has some real-life insecurity/ego probs so just let him keep talking to himself so he doesn't go off the deep end

[qpw]

Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer

I second that QPW is freakin creepy. Dude posts here like 10 times a day and maybe gets one response but that doesnt stop him from posting to his imaginary friend in here lol. People freak me sometimes. Hope he doesnt live in my city.

[Gordias]

Greg Raymer said that he was on the worst losing streak of his career before he won the Main Event at the 2004 World Series of Poker. He also said that during the entire lengthy, grueling tournament he never gave anyone a bad beat (although I do recall seeing one during the televised coverage), and he never took a bad beat. This is a good real world example of the immutable properties of mathematical probabilities: the odds pendulum MUST eventually swing back in your favor if it is dipping the “wrong way” for an extended period of time. And a profitable way for that to occur is by having the pendulum swing back within a compressed, critical period of time – like during a high payout tournament – as it did with Mr. Raymer.

Over time, a similar thing eventually happens to all tournament players at any level of play, and most come to realize that this can actually work in their favor, when you consider the big picture. I remember the first time it happened to me. As I went through the tournament winning most of my flips and having most of my favored hands hold up, it hit me like a ton of bricks: all the bad beats and lost flips over the past weeks are now balancing out in one large chunk! It was one of those low-entry-fee “donkaments” with thousands of players, yet I still finished second and had a very nice payday.

Even with this knowledge, most of us justifiably get frustrated when a prolonged losing streak is happening to us and we keep getting knocked out of a seemingly endless number of tournaments. We soon begin to wonder: Jesus Christ, are any of my hands ever going to hold up? When this happened to me, I would always hear one of Mike Sexton’s favorite phrases ringing in my head, which he often used during his commentary of World Poker Tour events: “You gotta win coin flips if you’re going to win tournaments!” (or place high in them). Then I would think: how am I ever going to win a tournament if I keep losing nearly every coin flip and my highly favorer hands rarely hold up? (Even if you follow Alan Cunningham’s advice and play very carefully during the early and middle stages of tournaments - flip rarely and only against much shorter stacks, or only shove when you’re a heavy favorite - your stack will get eaten away rather quickly when you’re consistently losing them.)


The Extended Losing Streak: When the Pendulum Never Swings Back


But what if the massive numbers of bad beats continue on for an indeterminate length of time, and you continue to only win something on the order of 10% of your coin flips? (If and when this begins happening to you, you will start to keep records. So you will know the exact percentages). How long do you go before you decide that the pendulum may never swing back in your favor and that maybe you should quit and save the rest of your money? Both times it happened to me in my relatively short online poker “career,” my loss limit was about 300% of my initial deposit. Fortunately, I had run both rolls up to between 700-800% each time, so I still came away a decent winner.

I’d like to talk to Greg Raymer about the details of his worst losing streak. Or Ylon Schwartz, fourth place finisher at the 2008 World Series of Poker, Main Event, who mentioned that he had been running bad for two years (again, things must have turned around for him during the Main Event, or he would have never made it to 4th place, no matter how well he played.) I’m curious if their losing streaks were comprised of basically one circumstance or feature of poker play that continued happening over and over again, as was the case with me. I have a feeling they were not, since that’s not ordinarily how losing poker hands unfold during losing streaks. There is more variety in the ways you lose pots, rather than basically “one way” happening over and over and over again. (I’m sure they were also making some ill-advised bluffs, or too many bad calls, as we all do from time to time.)

The one way I kept getting beat during my first gonzo-extended losing streak (get your moans and insults ready) was being all in after the flop as a heavy favorite, then getting sucked out on again and again. It was mostly the turn or river cards (and often both) matching the hole cards of my opponents made hands, and not them hitting their straight or flush draws, although that occasionally happened, as well. It didn’t matter if it was my pocket A’s against their split Q’s, J kicker after the flop (Nice call, buddy. You can’t even beat KQ, yet alone AQ), or my pocket A’s against pocket K’s (or smaller underpair), whatever card they needed would inevitably bang out on the turn or river and I would lose the pot. (After you see it happen 25 times in a row, and you know it’s coming, you start to hope it just hits on the flop, so you don’t get your hopes up yet again, only to have them crushed.)

I recently read a poker forum post from a computer programmer who was defending the veracity of online poker against the “too many straights, flushes, full houses and quads” crowd (which I’ve never seen and don’t agree with). At one point, he railed: “You don’t even know how computer programs work! They couldn’t do that even if they wanted to! About the most they can do is alter the percentage of times certain cards hit the board.” I’ll tell you what; reading that was one helluva frickin eureka moment for me. So this computer programmer reveals that they CAN alter the percentage of times certain cards will come out. Well, from my experience, that sure explains a lot. Now I’d like to know if they can enter usernames into the system and have this phenomenon happen more frequently to certain players. (Obviously it wasn’t happening to this programmer, or the other online poker defenders. If it ever does, your impassioned defense will quickly turn into a reasoned indictment, as it did with me)

I’d like to wrap up my rant with the “final straw experience” as to why I quit playing at the first of the two online poker sites I’ve tried so far. Awhile after my first unending losing streak began, there was about a three day stretch of play that firmly planted me in the “online poker is shady” camp. As I was playing tournaments over these three days, virtually every time two players were all in after the flop, the turn or river cards ALWAYS matched at least one of the all-in player’s hole cards, and often both (like one guy would draw out on the turn, then the other guy would redraw out on the river. Or the turn and river cards would both match the same guy’s hole cards). And this happened over and over again for three days straight, even after I was moved to different tables. So I’m not the only one this is happening to, I thought. Did the software accidently keep putting too many of us “**** list” players at the same tables, and that’s what is causing this “over-expression of their programming directive”? Of course, many players were making comments about the suspicious fall of the cards in the chat boxes during play. I wonder how many others at these freaky tables came to firmly believe, along with me, that this poker site was not on the up and up?

This was basically the end of my poker play at that site (although I did continue to play short sessions to see if the madness would continue). I mean, if you saw a royal flush come out on the board ten times in a row at a poker site, there are very few morons who would continue to play there. And though this episode is not as cut and dried as that, it feels pretty close to me. One side note about this site: I thought it was weird how much they updated their software, routinely offering a “newer version” at a surprising rate when you logged in to play. It makes me wonder what all the “tweaking” was about. Were they trying to fix this BS, trying to “tweak it down” and make it less obvious?

After I moved to a new site, my creepy losing streak abruptly ended. But every time I went back to the first site, it was the same old story: horrendous beat after horrendous beat. C’mon, now. If you move to another casino or online poker site, shouldn’t your run of cards remain pretty much the same, at least for awhile? And not be so dramatically different? You online poker defenders are asking me to believe that this experience was an expression of the unadulterated, random flow of mathematical probabilities. It reminds me of the old story of the wife who walks in on her husband while he’s in the middle of screwing another woman. After many futile explanations, in his frustration the husband finally asks: Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?

I distinctly remember the euphoric feeling of being able to play “openly” again at the new site, and not having to hunker down, worrying that no matter what I did, no matter how big of a favorite I was in any given hand, the turn or the river would inevitably burn me. Wow, I can actually play poker again, I thought, and not feel like I’m being cheated. Needless to say, playing at this new site renewed my enthusiasm for poker, and I pulled my money out of the shady site and never went back again. (I’ll save what eventually happened at this new site for another day. Let the pissin’ and moanin’ begin!)

[quarantined]

I don't post very often, but i really enjoy 2+2, and this particular thread seems to have a strange magnetic pull for me. Love the back and forth, but I have to agree with some of the rig theorists. qpw is one person who doesn't bring a lot to the table, seems like the kind of guy who is very unhappy with his mirror.

[qpw]

Originally Posted by quarantined

I don't post very often, but i really enjoy 2+2, and this particular thread seems to have a strange magnetic pull for me. Love the back and forth, but I have to agree with some of the rig theorists. qpw is one person who doesn't bring a lot to the table, seems like the kind of guy who is very unhappy with his mirror.

Keep those gimmicks coming.

[qpw]

Originally Posted by Rounding4Rent

I third that notion.. Regardless of whether or not op is rigged or man landed on the moon qpw is deff. A weird dude.. I said it from the beginning he uses this forum as a vent for his miserable life.. Pretty obvious the guy has some real-life insecurity/ego probs so just let him keep talking to himself so he doesn't go off the deep end

Are you going through your gimmick accounts one by one this evening?

Are you bored?

[quarantined]

Originally Posted by qpw

Keep those gimmicks coming.

Honestly, do I even sound like one of those guys? just an observation, I read this thread virtually daily, and tbh , you come off odder than any of these guys you argue with. And those occasional skirmishes with monteroy, sorry, you end up sounding like a petulant 12 year old.

[FutureInsights]

Belongs in the RIGGED THREAD. Of course, you couldn't possibly be making bad PREFLOP calls, could you?

You think you are on a magical database of named players to lose? ROFLMAO

Streaks happen. The BEST way to stop a losing streak is WALLA, not to play. I play on 2 sites, and there is always the other one to hop on to, or when I start feeling like you - just quit playing, and work on improving my game.

Statistical databases work well (an examination of preflop hole cards is on my blog, see my profile). Instead of losing a wad, why not invest $50 into gettin something that will help analyze your game?

Also, the Full Tilt Academy is great training, and going through the course, you learn all aspects - SNGs, cash games, MTTs, AND, you don't need software on the table to read your opponent.

Exactly, what could you have done to get on a magical Database to lose list? And here's something for you to worry about - if you do it again, I'll bet you get on the magical lose list on the new site too!!

[KingOfFelt]

Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer

And all my gimmicks are banned lol..Everyone just thinks you're creepy dude

You must be a solid poster. And who were you saying has no life again?

[Mitch Evans]

Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer

Dude posts here like 10 times a day and maybe gets one response but that doesnt stop him from posting to his imaginary friend in here lol.

Total Posts

* Total Posts: 219
* Posts Per Day: 14.87
* Find all posts by Sn8keChaRmer
* Find all threads started by Sn8keChaRmer

[KingOfFelt]

Originally Posted by Mitch Evans

Total Posts

* Total Posts: 219
* Posts Per Day: 14.87
* Find all posts by Sn8keChaRmer
* Find all threads started by Sn8keChaRmer

Yeah and QPW has only averaged 3.64 posts per day. Wonder how Sn8ke is gonna back track on this one.

[Arouet]

Originally Posted by quarantined

I don't post very often, but i really enjoy 2+2, and this particular thread seems to have a strange magnetic pull for me. Love the back and forth, but I have to agree with some of the rig theorists. qpw is one person who doesn't bring a lot to the table, seems like the kind of guy who is very unhappy with his mirror.

While these types of responses are a natural offshoot of QPW's sometimes caustic writing style ITT, anyone who believes the bolded part hasn't read enough of QPW's posts.

[qpw]

Originally Posted by Arouet

While these types of responses are a natural offshoot of QPW's sometimes caustic writing style ITT, anyone who believes the bolded part hasn't read enough of QPW's posts.

Thank you.

I have to say 'mea culpa' to criticisms of terse and caustic comments occasionally but if I couldn't, from time to time, post something that might be helpful to someone of a more open minded disposition I really wouldn't be here.