Quote:
Originally Posted by s0crates
I, in my fr1st pr0st, contest your interpretation of the odds. The chance of having all six of a set of six pocket aces be cracked by a lower pocket pair is 15,625:1. The probability of being dealt a pocket pair is approximately 5.9% or 16:1 against. Therefore in a 9-handed ring game, when you are dealt AA, the chance that exactly one of your opponents has a pocket pair is approximately 3.8% or 24:1. The chance that two opponents have a pocket pair is, ~0.2% or ~500:1, which can be safely neglected. So, for one in every 221 hands, you'll be dealt AA. For every 25 of those, your opponent will be dealt a smaller pocket pair. Thus, one will have AA against a smaller pocket pair about once in every 5500 hands.
That should happen six times after around 33,000 hands. Now, the fun part. Statistically, in order for you to take AA against any inferior pair six times and have it cracked every time... you'd have to play over half-a-billion hands.
For perspective, let's say I'm 12-tabling at 100 hands/hour. To play half a billion hands... to have AA cracked six consecutive times by another pair... I'd have to sit here playing constantly until the year 2055. If I wanted to take the more conservative route, 12 hour days, it'd take me into
the 22nd century.
(I sure hope I got all that math right.)
So, in conclusion, if the OP can provide some sort of solid evidence that he had AA cracked six-consecutive times, I would be forced to conclude that FTP is rigged, barring some ancillary computation.
So I challenge thee, Mr. Selection-Bias the Conspiracy Theorist, to provide some hand history. Hell, I'd take six times you had AA cracked by another pocket pair, period.
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ok well just let me point out some blaring miscalculations you performed although the chances are approximately 1 in 214 to get any pocketpair you are doing your calculatons in that before the cards are even dealt the chances of you having those 6 instances happen in a row (without winning any by not getting called with a worse hand becuase your oppents seem to have figured out how to throw away a losing hand) you also made the calculations based upon having it litteraly happen six hands in a row i dobut you had absolutely no other hands (win or lose) in between these losing hands but as soon as you look down at those pocket aces you have a far better chance to lose with them than just doing the numbers of the probiblity of you getting them and losing before the cards are even dealt
SO AS SOON AS YOU SEE THE PAIR OF ACES YOUR ODDS OF LOSING ARE STILL THERE
(i might add that any ace always seems to have the amazing ability to make bad players play worse which must be magic)
The chance of losing to a another pocket pair with aces is 1/5
so 6 times in row = 5 to the 6th = 1 in 15625
now does that seem impossible? you also forget that much like roulette the past outcomes have no effect on the future out comes because if the past outcomes DID effect the future outcomes it WOULD be rigged
i know it must seem complicated to you but as soon as you see your pocket pair the odds of anyone else at the table getting a pocket pair go up to about 5.8% per player because that just the way the numbers work
so if you feel those cards are rigged and that a 50%+ preflop win rateing even against 2 or more other players is just not enough feel free to muck em you won't see me complaining
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