The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

[Bingo_Boy]

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

I don't think you understand my point. Unless you see everyone's hole all the cards you have no idea what's going on. You are only hoping they aren't scamming you. For instance:

You are dealt 7-2 offsuit. Someone puts in a big raise. You fold. How would you know that the raiser had AA? How would "tracking your hands" tell you that this raiser had raised the last 5 times he had AA and every time he was folded to and only collected blinds and/or antes. How would you know the same raiser is being set up to take a big hit on his next AA, some 220 hands from now. He loses a big chunk on a bad beat.

When raiser looks at his hand history, he wins with AA 5 out of 6 times. He gets AA every 220 hands. He complains about rigging but has no proof. Everyone tells him the problem is he doesn't play poker very well.

Note the "policies" of the site prevent showing you other people's hole cards. the same policies used to hurt you are also used to hide the evidence. It is a near-perfect scam.

"If you don't know who the sucker is at the table, it's probably you"

If I am one of the clowns in this thread who thinks he is getting screwed over with AA I am going to analyse my results. I am going to see that I am only winning small pots preflop and losing big ones. I am going to work out how many times I would expect to run into hands like KK and making some conservative adjustments, analyse exactly how unlikely it is how rarely I have seen them. I am going to analyse flop distributions. I am going to analyse winning hand distributions.

Or am just going to bitch and moan about my paranoia.

[otatop]

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

Unless you see everyone's hole all the cards you have no idea what's going on.

This is only true if the site is only targeting you personally. If anyone else is targeted, and you play with them, your hands will have been manipulated and easy to spot.

You are dealt 7-2 offsuit. Someone puts in a big raise. You fold. How would you know that the raiser had AA? How would "tracking your hands" tell you that this raiser had raised the last 5 times he had AA and every time he was folded to and only collected blinds and/or antes. How would you know the same raiser is being set up to take a big hit on his next AA, some 220 hands from now. He loses a big chunk on a bad beat.

This goes against the theory you already proposed. According to your theory, your 72o here wasn't an actually dealt hand, it was an alternate hand given to you after the site saw Player X got randomly dealt AA.

Note the "policies" of the site prevent showing you other people's hole cards. the same policies used to hurt you are also used to hide the evidence. It is a near-perfect scam.

Aside from the fact that you haven't put forward what the point of the scam is. How would the site increase profits in a way that makes all this effort worth it?

[Arouet]

Some of the others have made good points on this. I think you guys are being too cavalier in what you are assuming is undetectable and how much rigging would need to go on before it becomes detectable to a reasonably sophisticated HH analyser.

Remember any time you rig PF it affects each and every street after that.

If you want to make a case, you're going to have to do some simulations or something. Demonstrate that it could be done undetectably like you suggest. From my understanding, if the rigging is done on a regular bssis, to a degree that would affect profits, its going to turn up somewhere if it is following a pattern.

Sure having all the hole cards would be definitive. But that's why there are statstics: they deal with uncertainty. And they allow one to calaculate confidence intervals and standard deviations.

If there's a pattern, from what I understand, it will be detectable. The onus is on the person suggesting an undetectable pattern to demonstrate that. This is not a gut instinct type of issue.

[EdwardBear]

Originally Posted by otatop

This is only true if the site is only targeting you personally. If anyone else is targeted, and you play with them, your hands will have been manipulated and easy to spot.This goes against the theory you already proposed. According to your theory, your 72o here wasn't an actually dealt hand, it was an alternate hand given to you after the site saw Player X got randomly dealt AA.
Aside from the fact that you haven't put forward what the point of the scam is. How would the site increase profits in a way that makes all this effort worth it?

The point is to control players expected returns without being caught. It reduces expected returns for the player while keeping the more general distributional aspects of the hand history intact.

Why would a web site want to control their player's returns?

For one thing, if a poker site was siphoning off player funds for personal use and didn't have enough money to fund all cashouts they would not want players to be able to build cashout-able bankrolls.

Another reason is that people who don't make money playing poker tend to leave what little money they have left unclaimed. So, anything you can do to limit bankroll growth without being caught is helpful to a fraudulent poker site. Those unclaimed, "dead" accounts are profit.

Poker is extremely vulnerable to rigging because most of a player's money is made on a very small fraction of the hands dealt. So manipulating the probability only by a tiny bit has a devastating effect. Another way poker is open to scammers is that it is a hidden information game. How do you cheat at chess? In poker, because you do not always see your opponents hole cards, even after a pot is won or lost, you can't tell for sure if, for instance, your opponents are being dealt hole cards randomly. Nor do they know if they are being dealt hole cards targeted against you. There is enough wiggle room in the probability of a card deal to hide most of this. If you over deal 7-2 offsuit by 5% to someone is he going to notice or complain? It would sound silly.

The whole thing could be set up like Whack-A-Mole. Whenever someone gets to a point where they need to be cooled off, you cool them off. When the next guy pops up, he gets it. When the guy you whacked is down, you let him up again. And so on and so forth. The money goes around and around and never comes out. If the site wants to suck some money out they just sit an insider account at the table to collect the money. the rake, of course, is always out there taking little bits and pieces all the time.

To do this, you would need a deep understanding of poker math and probability, serious computer programming skills, actual poker playing experience and the audacity to pull off a multi-million dollar scam knowing that if caught you could go to jail and would probably be responsible for closing down online poker.

I'm saying it could be done. I don't know if it is.

[Bingo_Boy]

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

The point is to control players expected returns without being caught.

Even though you have no idea how or if it is happening.

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

It reduces expected returns for the player while keeping the more general distributional aspects of the hand history intact.

Does it?

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

Why would a web site want to control their player's returns?

For one thing, if a poker site was siphoning off player funds for personal use and didn't have enough money to fund all cashouts they would not want players to be able to build cashout-able bankrolls.

Cashout-able bankrolls? What does that mean?

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

Another reason is that people who don't make money playing poker tend to leave what little money they have left unclaimed.

Do they? If they don't care about the money wouldnt they just gamble it away? Wouldnt this just help somebody get a 'cashout-able' bankroll?

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

Poker is extremely vulnerable to rigging because most of a player's money is made on a very small fraction of the hands dealt. So manipulating the probability only by a tiny bit has a devastating effect.

So devastating that nobody has been able to notice it?

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

In poker, because you do not always see your opponents hole cards, even after a pot is won or lost, you can't tell for sure if, for instance, your opponents are being dealt hole cards randomly. Nor do they know if they are being dealt hole cards targeted against you. There is enough wiggle room in the probability of a card deal to hide most of this. If you over deal 7-2 offsuit by 5% to someone is he going to notice or complain? It would sound silly.

You can tell in the ways I described and many other ways neither of us is capable of understanding.

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

The whole thing could be set up like Whack-A-Mole. Whenever someone gets to a point where they need to be cooled off, you cool them off. When the next guy pops up, he gets it. When the guy you whacked is down, you let him up again. And so on and so forth. The money goes around and around and never comes out. If the site wants to suck some money out they just sit an insider account at the table to collect the money.

So we've got insider accounts in the mix too have we? IS there nothing those monstors won't do?

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

To do this, you would need a deep understanding of poker math and probability, serious computer programming skills, actual poker playing experience and the audacity to pull off a multi-million dollar scam knowing that if caught you could go to jail and would probably be responsible for closing down online poker.

Multi-million dollar scam? Where'd you get that from? Are you sure its not Billions? Or tens of thousands?

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

.

I'm saying it could be done. I don't know if it is.

Won't stop you implying it is by the tone of your post

[thegoat916]

these sites have to be ****ing rigged. especially merge network. they have these cutesy ****ing setups going on when you play. its especially noticeable when you play heads up, which is a ****ing rake gathering fest. and its really comical how they have bots playing for them that just never seem to leave the ****ing tables LOL>

and they always hide behind the ****ing algorithm software which is i guess supposed to sound scientific and romantic. yes, over 30 million hands the algorithm software might function in accordance to how live hands would play out and be dealt, but in the short term, they f.uck you over with unrealistic and cutesy ****ing scenarios. its ****ing blatant when you play heads up.

[Bingo_Boy]

Originally Posted by thegoat916

these sites have to be ****ing rigged. especially merge network. they have these cutesy ****ing setups going on when you play. its especially noticeable when you play heads up, which is a ****ing rake gathering fest. and its really comical how they have bots playing for them that just never seem to leave the ****ing tables LOL>

and they always hide behind the ****ing algorithm software which is i guess supposed to sound scientific and romantic. yes, over 30 million hands the algorithm software might function in accordance to how live hands would play out and be dealt, but in the short term, they f.uck you over with unrealistic and cutesy ****ing scenarios. its ****ing blatant when you play heads up.

Cliffs: You get ****ing pwned

[thegoat916]

Originally Posted by Bingo_Boy

Cliffs: You get ****ing pwned

no but really, you should sign up at PlayersOnly and make a fresh deposit and play heads up. youll run like a god for the first 2 days and then youll get f.ucked hard. fresh deposits usually get straights and flushes every other hand for a short period of time and then after that youll just get blatantly f.ucked

you ought to try it. its comical how indiscreetly the rigged hands play themselves out. do it for the lulz at least.

[shutEMdown]

Originally Posted by JPFisher55

I completely agree. This is why I have stated that only an audit of all the hand histories for a given time period can ever detect rigging or prove that no rigging occurred at any poker site. No poker site has ever commissioned or released such an audit because no current government regulatory agency licensing any of the current poker sites requires such an audit.

This will change when and if US states get to license online poker sites.

correct....and why EVERY online site is questionable to play on.

[Bingo_Boy]

Originally Posted by thegoat916

no but really, you should sign up at PlayersOnly and make a fresh deposit and play heads up. youll run like a god for the first 2 days and then youll get f.ucked hard. fresh deposits usually get straights and flushes every other hand for a short period of time and then after that youll just get blatantly f.ucked

you ought to try it. its comical how indiscreetly the rigged hands play themselves out. do it for the lulz at least.

I'm not going to do it because I think you are talking nonsense.

If you believe it why aren't you scraping together as bigger deposit as possible, perhaps with additional staking from other boomswitch believers in this thread. You sound pretty certain so you might as well max out a few credit cards and pay them off in full in a month. Maybe even remortgage if that's an option for you.

You've got around 20 Merge skins to shift your money between as you move up in stakes. You'll make a fortune. You could even write a book on how to exploit the system, complete with all hand histories showing all those straight flushes and screenshots of your rocketing balance.

I look forward to hearing your progress.

[otatop]

Originally Posted by thegoat916

these sites have to be ****ing rigged. especially merge network. they have these cutesy ****ing setups going on when you play. its especially noticeable when you play heads up, which is a ****ing rake gathering fest.

HU is terrible for rake, you silly, silly little monkey.

[thegoat916]

"But you will receive power when the Holy Spirit comes on you; and you will be my witnesses in Jerusalem, and in all Judea and Samaria, and to the ends of the earth."

Acts 1:8

[blatantlyrigged]

Originally Posted by EdwardBear

Why would a web site want to control their player's returns?

The whole thing could be set up like Whack-A-Mole. Whenever someone gets to a point where they need to be cooled off, you cool them off. When the next guy pops up, he gets it. When the guy you whacked is down, you let him up again. And so on and so forth. The money goes around and around and never comes out. If the site wants to suck some money out they just sit an insider account at the table to collect the money. the rake, of course, is always out there taking little bits and pieces all the time.

I'm saying it could be done.

This is exactly how the manipulation has been performed since these sites started. I have explained this many times, but as you might have noticed by now, you are arguing with at least 3 non-playing site promoters at this time, and will not get an honest answer.
This is done to eliminate cash outs and move money around and around from old players to new players to create rebuys.

Originally Posted by thegoat916

no but really, you should sign up at PlayersOnly and make a fresh deposit and play heads up. youll run like a god for the first 2 days and then youll get f.ucked hard. fresh deposits usually get straights and flushes every other hand for a short period of time and then after that youll just get blatantly f.ucked

you ought to try it. its comical how indiscreetly the rigged hands play themselves out. do it for the lulz at least.

Yep, all you have to do is play, and open your eyes and mind. The manipulation is extremely obvious.

Originally Posted by shutEMdown

correct....and why EVERY online site is questionable to play on.

+1000

[shutEMdown]

put it this way...whenever there is MILLIONS of dollars floating around without oversight and/or regulation, people get greedy. call me a socialist, but thats why its is 100% correct to have government protect its people, the consumers. you think this type of chit happens at borgota or foxwoods?!?! no...because the man is watching, as he should be. whatever, the govt gets their cut on taxes but id much rather pay them knowing it is safe or legit.

Ferguson build a bankroll from zero to $10k MY ARSE!!!

[thegoat916]

basically online poker is one big circle jerk that keeps you coming back

if you catch my drift.