Longest consecutive winning sessions: 24

Longest consecutive losing sessions: 4

Worst live play stretch: 160 hours breakeven (this is what immediately preceded the 24 session win streak). In order to breakeven this long I know I both ran bad and played terrible.

I'll go even further. Most poker players, winners or losers, overestimate their true win rates because they initially ran good (whether they played well or not). People who initially ran poorly disproportionately quit, so the remainder suffers from survivorship bias. It's why so many players think they're running bad (because they have an inflated expectation), and the main reason why the higher stakes games are still beatable (because so many people play worse than they think they do).

The amount of time it takes to reach confidence that your true win rate is f fraction away from your observed win rate is N = (z*SD/WR/f)^2, where z is the z-score (usually 2-3), SD is standard deviation, WR is your observed win rate.

For a typical 1/2 NL solid winner, SD ~ 80, WR ~ 10, so for a +/- 10% estimate of your win rate (f = 0.1), you're looking at 25,000 hours of play.

For a typical 20/40 LHE solid winner, SD ~ 12, WR ~ 1, N = 57,000 hours of play.

It's really really really really hard to reach the long run for live play, so all this talk about the worst downswing is just BBV.

So you're saying that someone who has played 4 hours a night, 5 nights a week, 50 weeks a year, and has been a solid winner for 20 years or so, doesn't really know if his win rate is an accurate representation of his skill level because he wasn't played enough to know?

Nice I recently switched to a new location and have gone 8-1-1 in my first 10 nights playing there. Currently averaging $60/hr in 1/3 so in theory that's supposed to be unsustainable, but it's also been consistently the softest room I've ever played in. In fact lots of bizarre pots have happened that have caused me to lay down the best hand. This is a 1/3 game where it isn't at all uncommon for a $25 open to get called by 5 or 6 players. I choose now to drive an hour to play there when I have a decent poker room 10 minutes away, and 2 other decent poker rooms within 30 minutes drive.

Here are 2 examples of ridiculous hands where I laid down winners.

Board is AJQ J A

The river just completed a heart flush. I raised preflop with KJ. The flop checked through and when I bet the turn I was called by 2 players. On the river, the first player checks, I make a half pot value bet, which gets called by one player but then check-raised all in by the first player. I fold, and the last player to act calls. The check-raiser shows KT for a straight, and the caller wins the pot with a flush.

Another example. A player is playing something like 100/80 PFR VPIP. His PFR sizing is 35. He is a regular donator. This day he is running hot and would eventually cash out 6900!!! He opens to 35 (stack 2000) which is his usual open. 4 players call including another player with a 3k stack who has been playing aggresively. I call in the SB with A9hh and a 1K stack. The flop comes AK8 with 2 hearts. He leads out for 75. 2 players call and I am licking my chops. Then the 3k stack aggresive player makes it 250. Painfully I fold. The crazy whale calls and we go to the turn and it's a jack. Whale checks and calls another 300. River is the 5 of hearts, whale checks, aggresive player bets 400, whale calls. Aggresive player says "just an ace" and the whale tables KJ for the win. I ask aggresive player if he had AQ and he says no.

Literally every night I've been there I could choose a handful of comical hands like this. Poker is alive and well out there somewhere.

If I understand correctly, he is saying that your winrate could be off by more than 10%

So if you've had a win rate of $20, your true winrate could be higher than $22 or lower than $18.

^ That type of game listed above will also increase your variance. Be prepared for big losses. If you are scared money, or on a limited bankroll then you may actually have less edge in a game like that then against a typical nit/fest or loose passive game.

From September 2013 to August 2014 I was on a -$20k downswing. I turned it around after the wsop that year.

Maybe I'm looking at this wrong (live player):

- It's one long session, the time I leave the poker room is simply a break from the action.

- I don't care about sessions and neither does the math. If I'm down $400, it's $400 against my dedicated bankroll. No problem leaving 'down for a session'.(

- I enter stats in my Poker Bankroll App and just follow it in real time

- Hard to wrap my head around 'getting even'. Just 1 long session, play when conditions are ideal.

- I have friends that have a stop loss. I can see that if heavy tilting is a problem. If the game is good, I'm going to play as long as I'm able to make good decisions and the table is profitable.

- Downswings for me are just indicators I need to look at my play at a deeper level. If the losses are variance,oh well. If Im making poor decisions, thats a whole different issue. The cards have no memory of previous hands or any impact on future hands.

- I certainly tilt, but working on it.

- At home games guys ask to wash or get a new deck. Another thing I cant wrap my head around, I just smile and grab a beer. I guess that's another topic.

- Over the last few years I've fluctated about 10 bi. Good! If people aren't sucking out, I'm in the wrong game.

- I appreciate reading everyone's stories.

LOL this is running bad? Charmed life....

I'm losing almost 35BI at 2/5 since Sept 2015 over about 500hrs (I don't play very often). Pretty brutal. Mostly seems like 70/30s in big pots haven't gone my way for about a year. I'm sure there's some bad play involved, too.

He does. He just doesn't know his "true win rate" to within 10%. I can't imagine any live pro caring about that level of accuracy. If I were 95% certain my true win rate were somewhere between 5 and 12 BB per hour, I would consider myself a proven solid winner.

Lol, I've had that happen on 3 separate occasions over the last 6 wks + a bunch of other mad coolers.

in nlhe probably 20 bis or 2,000bbs. in plo close to 50bis or 20,000bbs (really 10,000ish bbs cause it was mostly mandatory straddle games). I feel like I've had bigger losses in 1 session then most of you are posting for your largest lifetime downswing...

Using could consecutive sessions won or lost is pretty useless in evaluating the severity of a downswing. It shows a fundamental lack of understanding wrt variance and very commercial amongst live players. Hourly rate and buy ins won/loss are much more useful metrics in determining downswing severity.

-25 BI below EV in the 3 weeks following the day that Trump became POTUS. I felt broken. By the first week of Dec I had to deposit with credit just to keep playing.

"Remember our motto: "When the going gets tough, the tough get going"

I recognize this post is several months old, but on the chance you're reading this, how does a pro of this nature (solid winner = 5-12 bb/hr) plan out the future?

Like let's say you're deciding how big of a house to buy. Aside from a bank telling you they literally will not loan you that much, how do you decide what kind of mortgage burden you're willing t9 shoulder?

I had the same thing once, losing twice in one session to quads over FH. It was at the tail end of a Vegas trip where I was on the wrong side of set vs set five times in a row (in about 7 days).

I just started playing live and am on a 7.5BI downswing, so that's fun.

This. So much this.
Why do most pros or training sites recommend a minimum of 20 buy-ins, and preferably 30-40?
Because 20 buy-in downswings will happen.

I've personally had many sessions where I've lost 5 buy-ins, and some of them turned around to become winning sessions.