Your sample size is basically meaningless, especially in the volatile world of PLO. Also, the fact that you don't seem to know this or the BR you'd require tells me that you are very unprepared to be a poker pro. Don't quit your day job. Grind on the side.

Consider that the game might be significantly easier at night and on weekends than during the weekdays.

When I was playing 20/40 LHE at FW it was the best game in the country. But that was Friday night through Sunday night. Friday during the day was extremely tough.

I can't really give either of you advice. I don't know your skills well enough or your love of the game. And it can impact your closest relationships. But part of it depends on how close you are to the games. And I would also consider what you would do if it doesn't work out. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

If I could do it over, I would have gone pro in my early twenties and taken part time jobs to carry me through dry spells. I would probably live in Vegas or LA. And I would likely have taken a dealer job. But I love the game. And I like the people who play.

Best of luck to both of you. Hope it works out.

You're thinking too narrowly: that's for federal income. There's other kinds of taxes.

+1 billion.

You're not ready. If you want to seriously consider it, try putting in a thousand hours in a year and see where you're at. You might find that your true winrate is negative or lower than your day job. You also might realize that putting in that many hours takes away any fun and excitement and it becomes a total grind.

Yea I think another huge factor that is unknown for me is... if I play full time, will I think of the game differently? How will it affect my mentality while playin if any at all?

Thanks for your opinion sesntivienewwageguy and Bene! Not a bad idea Reducto. Garrick, I'm aware the sample size is meaningless but it's not that I'm getting cooler hands against these pros. There are some spots where I like to think I am outplaying them as well. I tend to stay away from sticky situations to reduce variance and I'd also like to think we would play our hands differently. Unfortunately, the sample size is all I can go off of for now and how I analyze the other players' skill level at the table.

Thanks rick for your response. Still in my twenties so I guess I can pull it out for a few years if I give this a shot. Still undecided as of now. I guess maybe I can see what happens in the next one-two months to see if I can continue this run-good.

Yea I'm afraid the more I play, the more it'll suck the 'fun' out of the game. If I make it a job as opposed to a hobby I may look at it differently and not as exciting.

Dunno how I'll manage to pull 1000 hours in a year since that's roughly 83 hours per month. That's pretty much half a full-time job! 2000 hours a year is a regular job or what most poker players play per year (I'm guessing). So to pull half of that volume is quite significant.

Ive played only a small amount of live PLO, but Ive played more than enough to know that you probably need 5000+ hrs to have a true win rate. Way more than that at high stakes. The PLO variance makes Hold em variance looks like childs play.

Quoting $300/hr or whatever number it was at 100 hours of PLO is laughable. Like I literally laughed out loud when I read that. I have mo idea what top PLO players make and I have no idea if you are a top PLO player, but I do know that your current win rate is meaningless.

That's just Federal income tax. Everyone basically pays 7.5% or so social security + Medicare on the first 100k and a lot of people pay significant state and local tax too. Of course poker income is taxable too.

Is there really any question in your mind about this? If you take what is currently a fun and profitable hobby and turn it into a full time grind it will inevitably be much much less fun and you'll have to play at times when it's not fun at all. That's what makes it work.

Correct.

And to be clear, this is from the formula CE = WR - 0.5*V/k/B, where V is variance (SD^2), k is the Kelly fraction you're willing to accept, and B is bankroll. The formula and its derivation are from Schlesinger's book, Blackjack Attack.

In full transparency, the Kelly fraction is kind of a sticking point. In poker the bet values you can make are quantized (that is, if you lose 25% of your bankroll you usually can't move down 25% in stakes), so not entirely sure how to handle that mathematically. Most blackjack pros use quarter Kelly (k = 0.25), I suspect k is variable for poker and it probably varies with WR, bankroll, and game - very good NL players with large bankrolls are putting in very small Kelly fractions (by bet sizing well and sitting with small fractions of their bankrolls) but mediocre LHE players playing small bankrolls are putting in very large Kelly fractions because their edges are so small and they can't bet size. At any rate, I've typically used a conservative measure of 0.10-0.25 for NL and 0.25-0.50 for LHE. People are free to adjust as they see fit.

My numbers come from:

For a small stakes NL crusher, WR = 10, SD = 60, B = 2000, k = 0.2, CE = 5.5.

For a midstakes LHE crusher, WR = 1, SD = 10, B = 300, k = 0.4, CE = 0.58.

---

I would recommend doing CE calculations on the bottom and top ends of your WR range. Your WR is best expressed with an uncertainty of WR +/- 2*SD/sqrt(N), where N is the number of hours you've played.

I probably wouldn't consider going pro until the lower bound, WR-2*SD/sqrt(N), was a number larger than my living expenses and CE > my current salary.

Exactly, so why even bring up take home pay or mention taxes at all?

the way youre responding you sound like same poster as OP. supposedly you made $32k from poker last year and another $37k already this year and work a close to $100k job, why are you underrolled? somethings not adding up. are you sure you are accurately recording all of your hours?

Have you even thought to do the rudimentary math behind all of this?

Let's take the $175/hour you put as your "reasonable" floor. If you quit your job, play poker for 12 hours a week, 50 weeks of the year (let's give you two weeks vacation time), you'll earn $105,000 for the year. So you could literally just play poker every Friday and Saturday night for 6 hours each night, take the rest of the week off, and make six figures. Or play poker full time and earn $350,000 for the year.

With all due respect, you're coming off pretty oblivious here. You're on a heater and the cards are falling your way. At some point you're going to hit upon a stretch - quite possibly a long one - where you're card dead, where you don't hit every flop, and when the runouts aren't very favorable. I don't think you have any real concept of true variance in poker. Running good isn't just when you bink the river. When you get the money in very good and it holds, that's running good. When that happens a bunch of times over a 100 hour jaunt, that's running super hot.

If you really think you can make 175/200 an hour, at the least start playing 15-20 hours a week. As you suggest, you'll be absolutely printing money doing so, and you'll start to build up your hours. Maybe you won't hit 1,000 this year but over time you'll have far more than what you have now, which is essentially nothing.

I'm pedantic and wanted to correct this

I think a key point is do you like your job? Poker will become more of a grind eventually if you do it full time. Also is the game you're making money in sustainable eg. it's been running for years with no issue and isn't revolving around a single whale who may stop playing etc? I personally turned pro too soon in 2008 but I was also 23 and single with no responsibilities so it didn't matter if I failed, I was lucky to run above ev (I probably should have turned pro in about 2009 in hindsight when I was properly rolled) and then I stopped playing professionally in 2015 when my sports betting hourly became much better than poker and I wasn't enjoying poker as much anymore.

Good luck if you decide to do it.

Yes I accurately record my hours otherwise what's the point? I did have some personal things come up which made me use some of my poker bankroll. I know that's a big no-no but what can you do.

You're right. I probably have no clue what true variance is. Maybe I've just been fortunate to not experience a horrible run. My worst series of sessions last year were 6-7 losses in a row but not sure if that counts as a big enough downswing as you mentioned.

However, I do honestly believe that $175+/h is attainable playing 5/5 and 10/25 PLO combined. I guess it's a good idea in the meantime to be putting as many hours as possible. I guess I'll have a better update for you guys nearing the end of April if I haven't made to the jump by then.

Most of the 5-5 games have a $10 straddle. So obtaining 15BB per hour in 5-5 is really attainable. If good holdem players are making 10+BB/hour, with the strategy involved in PLO, I think a great player can obtain 15BB+/hour. Mix that with 10/25 PLO, and $175 is actually not that bad. Only 7/BB's per hour in that game. I mean everybody is subject to their own opinion but those are just my thoughts.

I'm indifferent about my job. Don't hate it or love it. I used to love it, but that feeling has gone away.

But that's a very good question about if the game is sustainable. I actually don't know the answer to that question. If I knew, I think it would be an easier decision to make, but honestly, I don't know.

You got a cool story though, props and respect to you!

You should see a doctor about that

I remember not too long ago you were bragging in the winrate thread about your huge hourly wins for something like 200 hours? This is the pot calling the kettle black!

Winrates can only tell us what we made in the past. It will always fluctuate in the future. For every block of 100 hours, 2K hours or whatever I look at from my results, the hourly winrate is never the same.

Yes.

No, you should not quit your job, at least not yet.

You are correct. You have NO idea what true variance is, especially in PLO.
Up- and down-swings are properly measured in $ or BB or buyins, not in sessions. If you keep playing PLO, no matter how good you are, you will eventually have a downswing of >30 buyins. Believe it, I've seen it with a number of excellent players. And when it does happen, you need to be prepared to handle it both financially AND psychologically.
IMO, $175/hour is flatout unsustainable at 5/5 or 5/10 PLO. It is perhaps sustainable at 10/25, IF you are a GREAT (not "good") player, and if you have an inexhaustible supply of whales. But you aren't sustainably going to make anything like this playing against pro's, or even decent amateurs, no matter how good you are.
You have a miniscule sample size, probably generated during the "best" hours available, probably at a fairly new casino in which the PLO games are wildly better than they will be in a couple of years (guaranteed). If you think you can win $175/hour x 2000 hrs = $350000/year, who do you think is going to keep donating to the games at that rate? These games are going to tighten up or actually dry up over a few years, almost certainly.
Now, am I saying that you should give up on your dream? No, I'm not. What I would recommend is that you keep your job for at least 1-2 years, and play as much poker as you can around that job. You should be able to put in at least 500-700 hours/year that way (and you will be mostly playing on weekends = "best" times). Generate a bigger sample size, and build up a bankroll. If you're still averaging $175-200/hour after you've put in 1000 hours, you will have a marginally meaningful sample size, and also will have built up a sufficient bankroll to consider quitting your job.
Incidently, IRT bankroll management: You don't really need a large poker br if you keep your day job. The whole point of bankroll management is to reduce "risk of ruin" (busting) to an acceptable level. But if you're still working at a $100k/yr. salary, blowing your poker bankroll and having to start over is much less of a disaster than if poker is your sole income.
Finally, you are still <30 years old. It is totally normal for people that age to become somewhat bored and disenchanted with their jobs. You're out of school, you have a "good" job, you're making good $, but something is missing. Is this all there is? I would suggest that in addition to testing out your skills and potential in poker, you also look around for some other non-poker job(s) which you might actually enjoy more or even feel passionate about.
Poker is a great game, and a great hobby, but it's a damned tough way to make a living, especially if your definition of "a living" is >$100,000/year. GL!

All the advice in this thread is good.

No, you shouldn't quit your job. Playing poker for a living sucks. I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. Everything you find enjoyable about playing now will disappear inside of a year.

It will ruin your social life (sorry friends/gf/family, I can never hang out during evenings or weekends, that's when the best games are), and you can kiss that gf goodbye now, she will never put up with your new schedule. It will ruin your enjoyment of the game (anything you're forced to do 2000 hours a year will become less enjoyable over time). It will hurt your future job prospects (explain this 3 year gap?). And it will probably ruin your finances (going busto, not paying all your taxes right and having lots of cash you can't spend on things like a house, pit/bar/stripper degenning).

I don't know how I can be any more forceful about it. Don't do it.

There are just a bare handful of people I know who play professionally, have for more than 3 years, still enjoy it, and couldn't make more at a normal job which they would enjoy better. Most are either forced out by going busto (repeatedly in some cases), or choose to go out once they realize how much they hate it. They are almost all in long term relationships with other gamblers or casino employees - no one else will put up with the lifestyle, your schedule, and your new group of degenerate friends.

And all the above assumes you actually are good at it and a long term winning player. By far most people are not, and that includes people whose short term stats make it seem like they are. That is selection bias at work.

Having said all the above, if you're going to ignore all the advice telling you not to do it and take a shot, doing it while you're young and unattached with no wife or kids is the only way. Have at it now, while you don't have all that much at stake or to lose.

But really. Don't do it.

OP - If you have a job, but no wife/kids, it should be relatively easy to get in 500 hours a year playing poker, if not more. I got in about 400 hours last year, and have a relatively busy/time consuming job and two kids. You could basically play just 12 hours every weekend (either one long grind on Saturday or shorter sessions Friday and Saturday night) and use one or two weeks' worth of vacation to play all week and get in 600-700 hours. Why not do that for a year or two and see where you're at? As others have noted, it's almost certain that you're running extremely good, and if you play that much poker and win at the rate you think you can, you'll have (I) given yourself some more evidence that you're a winner in your game for a significant margin, (ii) taken a couple years to see how your game evolves and (iii) added a ton of cushion to your bankroll.

I play PLO, and the swings are massive. Granted, it's 1/2/5, but I can be up thousands over a few sessions and then down thousands.

Lots of good advice in here. This is dead on:

Originally Posted by Garick
Your sample size is basically meaningless, especially in the volatile world of PLO. Also, the fact that you don't seem to know this or the BR you'd require tells me that you are very unprepared to be a poker pro. Don't quit your day job. Grind on the side.

+1 billion.

You're not ready. If you want to seriously consider it, try putting in a thousand hours in a year and see where you're at. You might find that your true winrate is negative or lower than your day job. You also might realize that putting in that many hours takes away any fun and excitement and it becomes a total grind.