Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
Well they're actually right about that. Just take AQ. With 0 Q's on the board there are 16 combos of AQ one could have. With one Q on the board there are 10 combos of AQ one could have. With 2 Q's on the board there are 8 combos of AQ one could have. Etc.
This brings to mind the game show "Lets Make a deal".
At the end of the show the two contestants with the most winnings that show got to trade their winnings to choose Door # 1, Door #2, or Door #3. Behind one of the Doors was a grand prize worth significantly more than anything given away so far. Typically behind one door was absolute junk.
After some haggling (to see if they would give up their Door) Monte Hall would open up one Door. Assume that Monte always opened up a Door that one of them chose, and that it was not the "winning" Door with the giant prize. Did the odds of the other contestant just go up to 50% from 33%?
This is the apparent dilemma here. Devoid of any other info, it looks like it is less likely the guy has a Q. However, the other guy may be the "Monte Hall" of this scenario. He knows whether or not he has it and you don't. So if he bets strongly, he may very well have it. And with Monte Hall, even though he always followed up with a good offer for the unopened door, the quality of the offer for those who watched the show religiously, may very well have been the tell (i.e., better offer for the real grand prize door).
I would also think that there is a non-zero chance I have added absolutely nothing to this thread. However, in that case, this can be considered what I bring to the table.