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Expected win rate Expected win rate

05-25-2017 , 03:33 PM
Hey guys, i know this topic has been discussed previously, but this case is a bit different.
So in my country games are played with 5-10 blinds, buy in varies between 500-1000 (when the game starts usually most people buy in for 500, later when they lose a bit 1000 and if they are stuck a lot they go up to 2000-3000).
The big 2 differences are:
1- raises are 100-150, which means the game is being played like 20-40, which means everyone begins play with 12.5-25bb, which is a f***ing joke and makes luck so much more important
2- rake is 5% with max rake of 100.
(Just to compare to the US game is 1.5-3$, played like 6-12$, with max rake 27$).
I know winning 10bb in a US casino is pretty good, but here numbers are a bit different.
Having said all that, how much is a professional player supposed to make
BB/hour in those games?
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05-25-2017 , 04:19 PM
No professional player would play in that game unless he was insane
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05-25-2017 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
No professional player would play in that game unless he was insane
The thing is out of 10 players, usually 1 is good, 1-2 are ok, 1-2 are pretty bad and 5-7 are super terrible
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05-25-2017 , 05:39 PM
Game is unbeatable unless you can play a VPIP of 5%, maybe less, and still get plenty of action when you do come in. Your win rate cannot be even estimated by somebody who isn't a regular there, as we have no clue just how much action you might be getting while playing that tight preflop. You'll have to find out for yourself, or quit the game. Good luck!
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05-25-2017 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
1- raises are 100-150, which means the game is being played like 20-40, which means everyone begins play with 12.5-25bb, which is a f***ing joke and makes luck so much more important
There's a pretty big important difference between 5/10 with 150 opens and 20/40 with 150 opens... If you figure that out you should find your game profitable.
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05-25-2017 , 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leha
:
1- raises are 100-150, which means the game is being played like 20-40, which means everyone begins play with 12.5-25bb, which is a f***ing joke and makes luck so much more important
If you have to pay 10-15bb to see a flop, that just means you have to tighten up. If you get at least 5 people seeing the flop every hand, then some of them calling bets with weak hands, I think this game is very beatable. I would guess more than 5bb/hour but less than 10bb/hour, probably towards the lower end since I expect your dealers to be slow.
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05-25-2017 , 08:05 PM
That game is absolutely beatable and with a very simple strategy. Nit up. If the average raise size is that large a lot ofpeople call preflop, having a super tight range of AK and JJ-AA, maybe AQ and 10s as well, should be a very easy way to profit if the table is loose and cally.
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05-25-2017 , 08:30 PM
$100 rake per hand? Is your country name Houston, Texas?
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05-26-2017 , 07:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Robot9999
$100 rake per hand? Is your country name Houston, Texas?
I didn't see him use a $ sign when discussing amounts in his game.

100 currency units, but not $100.
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05-26-2017 , 08:25 AM
Lol "game unbeatable". Seriously? Come on this is laughable.

Seriously laughing at anyone who thinks it's impossible to beat players opening 10-15x even at 5% rake 100 cap. Not only is it beatable, it is a ****ing goldmine. Thread is done.

So even if they don't give you action when you have TT+/AQ+ you wait 70 hands to get either of them and then you just go all in. When they open to 10-15x I assume they do get some calls because else no hand would see a flop. That range is close to 5% and assuming they are all profitable shoves (especially when you buy in for 500) we will call them breakeven and win $100-$150 once every 20 hands while losing like $35 in blinds. That's friggin 15bb/hour assuming 30h/h and that there is on average raise this size before it gets to you. Of course sometimes there is more in the pot and sometimes you're first to open. Also this assumes that these jams are breakeven, which they are not.

But yeah, unbeatable.

Last edited by Kelvis; 05-26-2017 at 08:32 AM.
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05-26-2017 , 10:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
No professional player would play in that game unless he was insane
I wish people who never played poker outside of North America would stay out of discussions about games they know nothing about.

5% rake up to 10BB is high but not uncommon (especially in 1/2 games) in Europe.

That game is certainly beatable as soon as players start to rebuy for 200-300BB each time, if said players are as bad as you describe them. 10BB rake isn't too bad if you have a couple 1000BB pots every hour.

In a perfect world, you would only join the game when the stacks are already that deep. That way you save yourself from folding 95% of hands and other players disliking you for that. If you can't do that, just sit around and wait for JJ+/AK and get that all in preflop.

Nobody can tell you what a good winrate is without knowing how much the bad players lose. If 1000BB get raked over the course of a night, and 7 terrible players lose an average of 300BB, there's over 1000BB to be distributed among all other players.
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05-26-2017 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
I wish people who never played poker outside of North America would stay out of discussions about games they know nothing about.

5% rake up to 10BB is high but not uncommon (especially in 1/2 games) in Europe.

That game is certainly beatable as soon as players start to rebuy for 200-300BB each time, if said players are as bad as you describe them. 10BB rake isn't too bad if you have a couple 1000BB pots every hour.

In a perfect world, you would only join the game when the stacks are already that deep. That way you save yourself from folding 95% of hands and other players disliking you for that. If you can't do that, just sit around and wait for JJ+/AK and get that all in preflop.

Nobody can tell you what a good winrate is without knowing how much the bad players lose. If 1000BB get raked over the course of a night, and 7 terrible players lose an average of 300BB, there's over 1000BB to be distributed among all other players.
Thank you for your response.
We very rarely have 1000bb pots, the big pots that happen few times per hour are around 300-400bb i guess.
Besides that numbers are pretty much correct, rake is around 1000bb per 8 hours of play, and the bad players loose around 300bb average.
Players are bad, calling 10-15x pre with K-7 off and J4 suit etc
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