Sorry if this is in the wrong place. Thought there was a bankroll section but don't see it. Anyway, I know there are posts about this from others here but there are so many variables to account for that each situation is different imo.

Right now I'm playing live 1/2 and 2/5 evenly split with about 15 hrs/wk of play time. Earning right at 20 bbs/hr at both levels (weird I know). I have a full time job currently paying the bills and poker earnings are being saved with the exception of a couple withdrawals.

Just looking for input on how much BR needed to quit and play 2/5 full time. I could survive and pay bills on earning 7 bbs/hr @ 40 hours/wk so I feel confident that even if I couldn't sustain my current win rate I could sustain 7 bb/hr. Even at 6 bb/hr I could play above 40 hrs/wk and survive. So what BR would minimize the busto probability in your opinions?

50k plus 6 months living expenses

my biggest negative swings were around 1400bb's so if you double that and add 200 bigs it come out to be 15K. Add another 10K for bad variance = $25,000.00. If you lose 50 buy in's you might want to move back down to 1/2 (and get a job).

You need to have minimum of 10k for living expense. But prob should be more. Then at least 15k for a roll?

So I'd say 30k if you want to go full out pro.

Through how many hours are you making 100/hour at 2/5?

So if I did the math correct in the last year you earned $15,600 at 1/2 and $39,000 at 2/5 for a total of $54,600. Have you been maintaing this for a year? If not how long?

It's very difficult to sustain 40 hours of poker per week. I generally schedule myself 30-35 and almost like clockwork will put in about 70% of scheduled volume. I wouldn't say I'm lazy and there are a few regs who put in more hours than myself but 1200 hours per year seems to be about my norm.

Games aren't good always. Harder to play when losing/running bad, etc.

If you have to play 40 hours per week of poker to survive then I'd be totally against the pursuit. Remember to make conservative estimates before attempting this. If you've sustained 10 bbs/hour, maybe do the math on 6 or 7. You will have better years then others, but you don't wanna lose your mind when having a bad year either.

I personally advocate a nittier approach to bankroll rules because I think avoiding tilt and stress at all costs is beneficial to your livelihood. My game is uncapped essentially so I'd use 5000 big blinds as a bankroll and 6-12 months worth of living expenses.

I'd ask yourself if it's possible to make 20-50% more than your yearly nut on 1500 hours per year. This allows you to save money as well because who wants to play poker their entire life?? Also if you're an adult you want to pay taxes and have insurance etc. These are things to consider.

If your yearly nut is 48k, then do the math on say 60k-70k. At 1500 hours per year, you'd need to earn $40-45/hour, which is doable for good players. If you think it's easy to play 1500 hours per year, guess again.

I've only met two people that legitimately logged 2k hours in a year. One is now a decent 2-5 reg who did it one year playing 1-2 and the other is a 1-3 middle aged nit. Look at those kinds of guys and ask yourself if that's what you want to become. Don't assume you can play 40 hours a week week in week out. That's not an easy task.

Goodluck on whatever road you take. Hopefully you're young and life expenses are minimal. Those two things will make the journey more doable and perhaps more enjoyable.

I would recommend 35k that is only poker money, and the ability not to touch it for other expenses for 3-6 months. If you can maintain $100/hr can cut that to 25k.

Thanks guys for the input. I was thinking like 20-25k would be sufficient with an additional cushion for emergency/living expense during downswings. $50k seems a little overkill, would think it's time to reassess before losing 100 buy ins.

Sample size on win rate is small so I'm not saying I can maintain 20 bigs/hr perpetually. But pretty sure I could maintain 10-12 and def 7. Regarding hours, I really don't think I'd have a problem logging 40 hours/week. Logged 24 in 2 days this weekend (went out of town to play so that's not my regular sched.).

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...nances-771192/

What odds do you want and how much do you want to bet on yourself logging 2k hours in the next 12 months?

Based on his reply, I'd assume his success rate is under 1%. Goodluck OP.

Hopefully you have 6 months living expenses in addition to a 15-25k bankroll. Losing and break even months suck when you have adult monthly expenses. You'll learn quick that logging 40 hours per week for a year is nearly impossible for most people.

how many hours have you logged?

I've made 40bb/hr before......I've also made minus 40bb/hr

50k and 6 months living expenses sounds to be in the ball park.

Now.. the 6 month living expenses should be invested and used only as last measure. (== can be fairly long term investment but still cashable)

I would split the 50k to two parts.. cash and investment (fairly easily cashable) .. perhaps 20k cash and 30 to investments

if you keep 70k as cash just in case .. you will lose ~2% each year to inflation

Like I said, small sample (254 hours) so I'm not at all saying I can maintain 20 bb/hr, that would be naïve. However, I know my longer term results are positive so I'm not looking to under what roll is needed based on that win rate. Also not looking to do anything right now I'm planning for a year or two down the road.

@Monsieur, I agree. Have a MS in Finance so we're on the same page with time value of money etc.

Again, maybe 40hr/wk seems difficult, but I think I could do it.

What is wrong with your current job/markett that you are considering quitting. it is smart that you are at least planning ahead but most of the pros I know do not make 7 bb/hr at 2/5+ and things are only getting tougher.

This. Why is it not a good idea to just keep your current job and play 15 hours a week at 2-5?

254 hours is very lol sample size. I have a normal job and play 15-20 hours a week when I can. I was on a heater for two months earlier this year and ran at ~30 bb/hr for around 150 hours over that stretch. However, prior to that I had a 2 month stretch where I broke even and have had a 2 month stretch since where I have basically broken even. I would definitely log some more hours if I were you prior to jumping in head first to get a better understanding of variance.

Also, if $35/hr is your surviving point (~$72k per year) you need to definitely cut back on some of your expenses if you want to give this a run.

You have to consider what the state of the games will be like in 2 years as well.

I will still be open to taking action on an hours prop bet then, too.

40 hours a week isn't that big a deal it's 40 hours a week and keeping a crusher's hourly that is tricky.

How do you propose they consider that? Crystal ball gazing?

This too. At this point he undoubtedly playing on the weekends and in the evenings when he feels like playing. Rolling into the poker room on a Wednesday afternoon when the game is filled with regs and when you may not be pumped about playing, but you have to get your hours in and still crushing is a lot harder.

IMHO I crush 2/5 but I've had 150hr soul destroying downswings. I've also had extended heaters (150hrs+) at $110/hr where I thought I was bulletproof. Actually in the middle of one now. Enjoy them while they last and remind yourself of them when you're experiencing the other side of variance.

I think a win rate like yours over 250hrs says you can beat the game, afterall a fish is never going to go close to a heater like that but if you think about what 250hrs means you get an idea of its significance (or lack of).

I won't use your win rate but if you're making say $40/hr over 250hrs you've made $10k. It's not out of the realms of possibility for a good player to have back to back minus $2.5k sessions. There goes half your roll and now you're ~$20hr.

I sat at a table only 2 nights ago with 8 terrible fish and only one other good player (and he definitely knew what he was doing and wasn't tilting). In 5 hours he was stuck $3.5k and the horrendous donk on my left was up over $4k.

I would contest that if your a good winning playing a 500bb loss is uncommon let alone two consecutive ones.

Playing 40hr/week ****** SUCKS!!!!! Probably seems easy now compared to having a job, but trust me... when no one is telling you to get to work on time it's way harder.

ehh, depends on how the game is playing. If you're playing in a really good game with people bluffing a lot and shoving on draws, losing 500bb is running bad, but not uncommon at all. All my huge downswings (and upswings) have been at crazy games, but I'll take a higher variance, super EV+ game any day of the week over a nitfest.

you're probably playing all of the good hours, not stressed out bc you don't have to win, running hot and not burnt out bc you only play 15 hours a week.playing full time is way different.

depending how easy you could get another job if you had to i would say 30-50k.