Probably lol sample size is my guess


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Seriously? They quit when they're $400 down

They have a small br, small sample size and don't keep accurate records. I've never seen someone who doesn't actually track on 2p2 ever claim they win less than 80% of their sessions fwiw.

Well yeah. My point is that would be bad lol.

Based on what the OP has said, he would tell us that it's very rare for him to quit when he is down $400 because he wins around $200-$900 80% of the time.

1.) It doesn't sound like you have good enough records to know how good you are at poker. Have you been playing consistently for 5 years and really have no idea what your hourly win rate is?

2.) Virtually no one can make a living playing 1/2. Especially in MD the rake is quite high.

3.) It doesn't sound like you actually know what you need to do to win money at blackjack. Memorizing basic strategy does not get you to +EV. I also suspect the BJ rules in Maryland are not favorable to counting anyway.

4.) It also doesn't sound like you are actually going to make money betting sports. There's no way you are going to consistently make a couple hundred a month betting $20/game regardless of how good you are. And I know a few people who do make a significant portion of their income betting sports, but they all have proprietary computer models they have put years of work into. What exactly are you basing your claimed edge on?

Sorry to sound so negative, but this just sounds like a bad idea all around.

I was once contemplating becoming a pro player during times when I was discontented at my job. But I went back to school for a PhD instead, and am now very happy with the much more flexible schedule of a professor, and able to play during breaks.

Really? That seems awfully low/unrealistic.

Let's start with some basic budgeting advice. How much do you actually spend on each of the following:
Rent
Utilities
Phone/internet/cable
Car payment
Car insurance
Car maintenance & repairs
Gas
Health insurance
Groceries and household items
Restaurant meals
Clothing
Dating and other entertainment expenses
Miscellaneous (haircuts, gifts)

Maybe the cost of living is much lower in your part of the country than what I'm used to, but can you really cover all of the above for $1,200/month?

Assuming you own a car, what condition is it in, and what kind of gas mileage does it get? If your main casino is 50 miles away, you'll be commuting 500 miles/week. That's 25,000 miles/year just to go to your new workplace, which means you'll probably put at least 30,000 miles/year on your car. That's a lot of gas, a lot of maintenance, and a lot of depreciation.

Do you currently have any debts? Car loans, student loans, personal loans, or credit card debt? If so, add the required monthly payments to your budget.

What's your poker bankroll, and do you keep it separate from your life savings? Do you have 3-6 months of living expenses set aside in addition to your poker bankroll?

What do you currently do to study poker? Do you have a coach, do you belong to a training site, do you have a core group of serious poker-playing friends you discuss strategy with, do you watch poker videos online or participate in strategy discussions on this forum, or do you read books regularly? For every 8 hours that you spend playing poker, you should plan on spending 2 hours studying the game.

And what about your mental game: how strong is that, and what are you doing to strengthen it? One of the most important skills you'll need to succeed in poker is emotional control.

How much money did you make playing poker last year, and what was your hourly win rate? People are skeptical of your claim that you win 80% of your sessions because that doesn't match our experience. Even the very best poker players, including those who play for a living, lose around a third of the time. So your claim suggests that you're not keeping accurate records and don't have a realistic view of your results.

How much money did you win or lose playing blackjack last year? If you're not keeping records, you don't know how big a leak this might be.

How much money did you win or lose betting sports last year? If you're not keeping records, you don't know how big a leak this might be.

Just because other poker players bet sports regularly, bet on the ponies, and play pit games doesn't mean that you should do these things. These are notorious leaks for some very famous winning poker players.

What will your poker-playing schedule be like? There are a lot more recreational players in casinos on the weekend. During weekdays the games could be much tougher, and your hourly rate could suffer.

My advice would be to keep your job and try to play poker on the side 12-20 hours/week. Keep meticulous records on poker-related expenses (gas, food) and income. Try to ascertain what a realistic win rate might be, and whether or not that will cover a realistic budget. Then ask yourself if you really want to play (and study) poker 40-50 hours/week. Right now it's fun, but it could turn into something you dislike as much as your current job.

I don't expect you to answer any of these questions in this forum, but these are the kinds of questions you should be asking yourself (and maybe discussing with your girlfriend/future wife). And the answers should help you to determine whether quitting your job and playing full-time is the right decision for you.

Good luck! Let us know what happens.

OP, you can support a wife on $1200 a month? She doesn't mind living in a little dump? Do you know how much health insurance for 2 people costs?

You don't know your winrate? Does it include 40 hours of play per week? Or only weekend or some other prime hours of play?

I don't think it's a good idea. You can play profitably but I don't really think you can survive off your winnings without an external income to take care of your necessities. The people who do supposedly make money either have an external income or sponsorships.

If you do intend to live off your poker winnings, you have to play 2/5. You're going to want a bankroll of $150,000 or more. You can go higher but your rate of return will drop drastically as everyone at the table will be at your same skill level or higher. 1/3 won't make you enough money.

It depends on how much you need to pay your life expenses. Doing that with mainly 1/2 doesn't seem likely unless you're murdering the game and playing significantly more than 40 hours a week. I personally wouldn't even consider making poker my full time job unless I'm 100% certain I'm a solid winner at 2/5--- $25/hr.
After 5 years (assuming your play amount is consistent) I would hope you have a good idea of your win rate across both games. If that amount is one you want to live on, and this is what you want to do, then go for it. Good luck.

I'm very very skeptical of OP's plan but this advice is absurd. Unless you just inadvertantly added an extra zero.

Yeah you can't live in this area on $1,200 a month unless that involves living in your parent's house.

A room anywhere nearby is going to cost $500 a month. That's a room in a shared house/apartment not an apartment. Even if you eat nothing but ramen food is going to cost you $400 a month. $300 won't cover gas or public transportation to/from the casino let alone pay a car payment, car insurance, health insurance, etc.

It doesn't work that way. You still have to pay taxes on that money and you get to pay even higher for social security as a self employed person.

you can buy a 5 pack of instant ramen for $1. If you account for water and electricity, you'd probably still have to eat 50 packages a day to spend $400/month on that.

I agree that life is expensive and $1200/month sounds little, but one person should have no trouble to eat for less than $400/month if money is tight. For that money you could eat at McDonalds every day and won't have trouble getting in 1800 calories while staying way below budget.

Living on $1,200/month can be done. Whether you really want to do it is a different question.

Basically as soon as something unexpected comes up, you're ****ed. Someone runs a red light and hits your car, you're ****ed. You catch a really severe flu and you're ****ed. Your kid is born with a disability, you're ****ed and your kid is ****ed. One of your parent falls and breaks a hip, you're ****ed. A tornado hits your home and you're ****ed.

Being rich is about more than dining on caviar every night and having gold plated bannisters. It's about riding out life's up and downs. If you're stretched to your limit just to make monthly expenses, you're not going to make it through -1 and -2 sigma events.

Ten years ago I made the choice to be a professional poker player with a wife and two kids. But my wife had a terrific job that could support our family even if I earned nothing. I was giving up a job that earned a lot of money but cost me all the hours of my day sometimes 6 days per week.

This is the advice I got at the time from a semi-pro poker player: Move up quickly from the low limit games to the higher limit games. If you can't beat the higher limit games don't do it. In your case try to win at 2/5 NL before you turn pro. If you can't do it, then don't turn pro. Continue 1/2 NL as a hobby. Get a job that you like better.

For me he suggested Limit Hold'em at the time (I had never played Hold'em only Stud and some Draw). I worked up to 20/40 LHE in about a year. I won about 60% of my sessions, made approximately $27/hr for a number of years playing weekends (friday AM through Sunday), and had a stop/loss of $2,300 a session.

During the week I was a stay at home Dad.

There was a lot of stress on my wife to take care of the kids on the weekend and work full time. She did take it out on me when I got back. Every weekend. But at the same time said she supported my playing and chasing my dream.

After 5 years of a 2 hr commute 35 to 40 weekends a year it wore on me. It wasn't worth the "pay". So I tried 40/80 LHE but got my ass handed to me.

Now I play only tournaments. The variance is huge. The upside is huge. My bankroll needs to be huger.

So I am now working at home part time earning great money. I don't love the work but I was doing it anyway for my wife. And it means that I can continue playing in poker tournaments without feeling like I might be draining funds from my family. I am a winning tournament player but playing in bigger tournaments like the WSOP Main Event will probably make me a losing player...

The things that can make this possible for you:
1) Have a bankroll before you start.
2) Live close to the casino...
3) Move up to 2/5 NL and establish yourself as a winner before you start this experiment
4) Do not play BJ or bet sports unless it is for enjoyment only (and you can afford it). If you continue to play BJ and bet sports as part of "earning a living", then admit you have a gambling problem and do not drag your wife down with you. Your knowledge of BJ is incomplete and unless you are counting cards you will always be a longtime loser at the rate of about 2%. Even if you play at the most optimal level. This is not an opinion. Sports betting for me is a red flag. I do know a 20/40 LHE recreational player who is a sports betting professional. But what makes him successful at sports betting is that he is devoted to that specifically...
5) Get a part time job that can carry you through tough times. I love the idea of being a poker dealer. This can help you learn about tells and a bunch of different games without having to risk anything. When I first started out playing poker I looked into dealing but my wife wouldn't move to LA so that was out (due to the commute)... I bet you could earn better than $16/hr dealing.

Good luck! I hope this works out for you.

This is true and it is possible to eat super cheap and moderately healthy as well. Problem for OP is that he has a wife to consider as well. If he was just going to neckbeard it up in his mom's basement for a year, well, $1200 a month covers all the ramen, internet and anime cuddle pillows he needs.

Huh? OP got married in the last few days?

Fiancee then, FFS nits ITT

I don't think she's even a fiancee, and OP has no financial obligation to her. However, the last thing he should be thinking about doing anytime soon is having children. That wouldn't be a good idea while playing poker for a living or on current job. One young person can live very cheaply. Two can live together even more cheaply. Kids is where the expense and obligations come in.

Rearranging your life plans to be a 1/2 NL pro is lol.

I think some of you guys are missing what he is rearranging. Sure, his plan and win history don't seem to be solid, but I know I'd rather play 1/2 NL for a living than work night shift in a freezer, and I'm bored silly by no-limit poker.

I'd rather chop off my leg than chop off my hand, but I'd much prefer the third option there too.

You do realize that even if you play Blackjack 'by the book' perfectly it's still -ev right? Unless you're counting and good luck living in Vegas and expecting to count regularly.

And unless you're some sports/math wizard (unlikely), you're more likely to lose a few hundred a month from sports betting than win a few hundred a month.

That said, you don't have much to lose. I'd say move to Vegas, work as a dealer and play on the side. And if you start winning more, quit your day job.

Great post, Mr Rick. Thanks for sharing your experience and wisdom.

This is insane. You realize that, right? He says it's a "bonus" that he doesn't have a career because it means he isn't leaving a career. Chew on those sour grapes while you think about how insane it is to look at one's situation that way.

As callipygian said, the rational response to having nothing at risk by making a dumb move is not to feel blessed to be able to make the dumb move but rather to evaluate how it is that you have nothing at risk.

Damn, what do you drive that costs more than $300/month in gas?

It is 15 miles to the casino and my car gets about 30 mpg. I spend less than $100/month on gas. I probably average $300/month for everything auto (insurance/gas/maintenance)

Also $400/month on food? I probably spend that, but I also eat out a lot. It shouldn't be hard to spend much less. One meal per day can be comped. Cereal for breakfast is very cheap. Ramen/Grilled cheese/whatever for a cheap dinner.