Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? arrogance, reality check, or is it time?

02-19-2017 , 07:40 AM
lol, yeah I'm sure casino managers are scouring 2p2 in search of posts like yours. -_-
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 08:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrAdvantage
While I appreciate your comments, I am confused . Are you the dealer or the houseman? I was fortunate enough to deal a private game for a year making 1200-2000$ a game , but the book / credit , food , bev , location etc were all on the houseman who would make 2-3 what I did. I don't believe dealer and houseman are always synonymous.

I'm a dealer. A lot of games require you to bring a player if you're dealing. Otherwise, they'll get another dealer who will bring a player.

What stakes were you dealing when you made that much?

In NYC, those games where you can make a grand per night exist, but not so much on the Island (which is where I live). And all the good NYC shifts are locked up anyway. Nobody wants to give those up.

Since the poker boom has died, there's a giant need for players. It's not just on the houseman anymore. If you can't bring players or play in the game once in a while to help shape it, then your shift is at risk.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 08:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrAdvantage
The best thing about mid to high end private dealing gigs is a hot waitress or 2 that no one wants to look cheap in front of and red chips being the lowest denomination. It's a great parlay .

Never thought of it like that. That's brilliant.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 08:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alternate Identity
You shouldn't be thinking of what you need to make to meet expenses. You should be thinking about what you need to make to replace your current income.
OP is a prime example of a situation where that assessment is clearly flawed. If he'd make $14/hour instead of $16/hour by playing poker instead of working the night shift in a freezer, that might be a vast improvement for his life.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagoTroy
You're very likely to fail but the risk is low. You aren't dropping out of an anesthesiology program. Give it a shot if you feel like you need to know if you could make it.
I agree with that. OP is working in a freezer right now. It's not like he would mess up his resume by quitting that job to play poker. It's also not likely that he wouldn't get rehired in said freezer (or a different one) if poker didn't work out for him.

Most "should I quit my job to play poker" threads are by people who have a college degree and/or an at least decent paying day job. The answer to that in most cases is clearly "no friggin way in hell". The situation for OP is totally different and the only reason I wouldn't recommend going pro is the sad fact that most people don't make it and that a ****ty job is usually better than no job.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 08:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheChamp11
lol, yeah I'm sure casino managers are scouring 2p2 in search of posts like yours. -_-
Why do you troll so early in the morning ?
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 08:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
Not sure why blackjack is getting hammered on. It is common knowledge that blackjack is a beatable game.

Skill-wise, blackjack is a much easier game to beat than poker. A good poker player should have a better win-rate taking on the same amount of risk as a straight counter playing blackjack in good game conditions, but it takes more work to become a skilled poker player than to learn how to count proficiently.

There are more advanced techniques for beating blackjack than straight counting which can be difficult but can yield high edges.

There are ways to exploit almost every game in the casino without cheating. Many of them rely on procedural/mechanical weaknesses which allow exploits. I will not give details on it because if I do it will probably cease to exist, but I am aware of a game which exists in a real casino right now (or at least the last time I was there) that offers a theoretical player edge over 10%. There are people who make a living searching for and exploiting opportunities like these.
Only 1 poster implied it was unbeatable by making some illogical " there's a reason why casinos are so big " comment. I think everyone else was just being cautious to the tune it might be very difficult and pressure filled to turn pro at BJ and pokerz at the same time. Um not sure even Bo Jackson could pull that off.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 08:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IanTheDealer
I'm a dealer. A lot of games require you to bring a player if you're dealing. Otherwise, they'll get another dealer who will bring a player.

What stakes were you dealing when you made that much?

In NYC, those games where you can make a grand per night exist, but not so much on the Island (which is where I live). And all the good NYC shifts are locked up anyway. Nobody wants to give those up.

Since the poker boom has died, there's a giant need for players. It's not just on the houseman anymore. If you can't bring players or play in the game once in a while to help shape it, then your shift is at risk.
It was a 5-10 PLO , PLO 8 , NL mix with unlimited straddle . Guys would straddle 100$ and players would "re-re" meaning double or triple straddle. The action was sick. I never ate or pissed for fear of missing a big hand. There would be 20-60k on the table , but the stakes ended up breaking the players.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 08:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrAdvantage
It was a 5-10 PLO , PLO 8 , NL mix with unlimited straddle . Guys would straddle 100$ and players would "re-re" meaning double or triple straddle. The action was sick. I never ate or pissed for fear of missing a big hand. There would be 20-60k on the table , but the stakes ended up breaking the players.

Damn! That's a crazy big game.
And yeah, see that's kind of my points. Games like that aren't sustainable.

That's why I deal a lot of Tournaments now. Tournaments are reliable, steady, and sustainable. People can lose $120 per week, every week. I'm totally fine with dealing a tournament for a couple hundred and not having to worry about players, trading action, etc.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
There are ways to exploit almost every game in the casino without cheating. Many of them rely on procedural/mechanical weaknesses which allow exploits.
I don't think anyone is saying that's not possible. But people who make a living of exploiting those weaknesses usually travel from casino to casino and don't spend more than a couple days at the same place before moving on and maybe coming back a couple of weeks or months later.

If part of your livelihood depends on being able to play poker at one or two set places that you have to frequent daily, you can't take the risk of getting banned from said places for being an advantage player.

Kudos to everyone who is able to go to the same casino every day to make a living from advantage play. Not getting kicked out within weeks/months is a bigger achievement than being able to beat the games in the first place.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 10:17 AM
Op:

While you still have a job try tracking your poker and other gambling results for three months.

My impression is you are a good guy with immature and unrealistic expectations. (Such as you can be a profitable blackjack player, and that your girlfriend will marry you months after being a gambler with aspirations of playing 2/5.)
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 11:09 AM
Stay single. Work a job partime. Play poker to supplement your income, and improve your game. Give it 6 months to a year. If it has worked out well enough , then quit and go full time and see how it goes. Do not get married and have children and still try this. It likely will not be a success , but you are young enough and free enough to take a shot in the life situation you have described in the OP.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
If he'd make $14/hour instead of $16/hour by playing poker instead of working the night shift in a freezer, that might be a vast improvement for his life.
Mathematically, this is not true. Certainty Equivalent is the amount of variance-free money you'd accept in lieu of gambling for a higher EV. CE in poker is approximately 1/2 to 3/4 of EV, and for most posters who give or take bankroll advice from 2p2, it's closer to the bottom.

You really want to be making $28/hr at poker before you consider quitting a $14/hr job.

Blackjack CEs are even lower because there is much higher variance per unit winrate. For NL, SD/WR ratios are 5-15 for solid winners. For LHE, 10-25. For BJ, 15-50. This leads to breakeven stretches of low hundreds of hours for NL, high hundreds of hours for LHE, and thousands of hours for BJ. There's a real possibility of having a breakeven year playing full time BJ as a legitimate and solid winner.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 01:05 PM
He said a vast improvement to "his life", not to his wallet.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 01:06 PM
Fair enough.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 01:18 PM
Appreciate the responses so far guys. To help give a little more information to the thread on concerns ive seen posted. I book a win in roughly 80% of sessions I play for wins anywhere between $200-900 and never book a loss for more than $400. To be more specific when I touched on playing blackjack and betting sports profitably I meant as I have the blackjack mathamatical chart memorized so I know what to do on every scenerio and might play it once a week. As far as sports go im talking about $20 a bet and maybe looking to make a few hundred a month from it.

As far as my job goes its a bonus that I just have a regular run of the mill job and not a career im leaving and if I take a slight pay cut or possibly make a little more to make my life more enjoyable im all for it. I grossed 32k at my job this year so I brought home maybe 23k so if I could make around 25k playing cards that would cover all my expenses and leave me some left over. I think the timing of this plays a big role also since I more or less just have me to look out for right now and in maybe two years ill have a wife/kid/etc to consider. My short term maybe long term goal would be to move up to playing 5/10 regularly and not live at the 1/2 forever.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 01:30 PM
1) If it fails, how certain are you that you can go back to a job with at least the same wage?

2) Do you have a track record with at least 1000 hours that show you are a clear winner?

3) Why would you ever go into blackjack or sports betting when the nearest casino is 50 miles away and can just restrict your betting if you make a steady profit. Online casino's are even worse.

4) Do you have the intellectual capabilities to escape the warehouse and pursue a career with a much higher ceiling that you won't get tired of? I'm 27 and half way through school for a new career and I don't regret it.

5) You do realize that starting any new career, whether it is poker, another job or education is kind of out of the window when you get married and take kids? So if you feel this is kind of the last opportunity that might skew your view of the options a bit.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
Mathematically, this is not true.
The problem is that you can't use math to calculate quality of life.

A friend of mine is a captain in the national guard. He's making $80k and pays taxes and life expenses from that. Recently he was told he's getting deployed to Jordan/Kuwait for a year this spring. Based on the numbers, he should be the happiest guy in the world. That $80k is going to be tax free money and his life expenses are close to zero for a year. The only problem: He really does not want to go back to the Middle East. So while math might say he should be very happy, he is in fact very sad about the situation.

If you work nights in a freezer, you might be willing to take a solid pay cut to work in a friendlier climate during the day.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IanTheDealer
Honestly, playing poker full time for a living is such a difficult thing to do. Especially now in 2017, it's much harder than it was say 10-15 years ago.

That's why I became a professional poker dealer. I was on the Pokercast a few months ago, and talked a little bit about why I got into dealing.

Now, I play part-time for a living. I get to pay a couple bills with the money I make, sometimes I buy some nice things, but ultimately I don't need to rely on my poker winnings.

If you love poker as much as I do, I strongly suggest considering becoming a professional dealer. It allows you to be around the game for a living, you can never lose as there is no risk, and you get to play, given that you have a sufficient roll. And, Vegas casinos allow you to pay while you're on the clock as long as there are no players at your table. As soon as a player gets a seat though, you have to get up regardless of if you're up or down money. But, you get to play while collecting your hourly wage. Pretty sweet!

I'll be dealing the 2017 WSOP this year. I live in New York, and I deal at about 14 different games all throughout New York. Underground & private games are quite lucrative. I make about $1,000 per week on average. Sometimes more, sometimes less. I'll be staying with a friend of mine who is a dealer at the Bellagio. He doesn't make as much as me, but he has more stability. And I might wind up moving out there with him and working at either The Orleans or The Wynn.

If you have any questions or need any help on how to become a dealer, I would be more than happy to help.

Like I said, take it into consideration. I love poker. I love the game. I consider myself so lucky and blessed that I get to be around it. Work is fun for me!

Think about it!
Would probably love to be dealer but when I watch them it looks quite difficult and im not sure I could learn it without being a **** up and messing things up!
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChameleoOoN
I book a win in roughly 80% of sessions I play for wins anywhere between $200-900 and never book a loss for more than $400.
Do you know this because you keep good records? Or is it just your feeling? I find it dubious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChameleoOoN
I meant as I have the blackjack mathamatical chart memorized so I know what to do on every scenerio and might play it once a week.
This tells me you have little understanding on how to make money at blackjack.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
Do you know this because you keep good records? Or is it just your feeling? I find it dubious.
This tells me you have little understanding on how to make money at blackjack.
The number may be off some, but not alot. Just curious why you think that about blackjack? dont want to derail thread on BJ too much though.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 02:44 PM
Because even if you play blackjack perfectly you still lose to the house. That's why they offer the game. You need to systematically count cards or rely on ******ed dealers to beat them otherwise.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 05:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChameleoOoN
Appreciate the responses so far guys. To help give a little more information to the thread on concerns ive seen posted. I book a win in roughly 80% of sessions I play for wins anywhere between $200-900 and never book a loss for more than $400.
Is this based upon your recollection of events or actual hard records? Do you know what your hourly rate is? What is your sample size in hours?
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 05:55 PM
There is a reason that they say gambling is a hard way to make an easy living. I made a serious try at it when I was young and unencumbered back in the eighties. I was playing the horses as my main focus with some sports betting and a little poker mixed in. Here are some things I learned.

You have to treat it like a career, not like a job. There is a difference. With a job, you walk away and don't give it a thought until the next shift starts. With a career you have to remain focused on improving your craft. With playing the horses that meant hours of homework every day, going over the form in minutia to find the message behind the numbers and identify solid betting opportunities. This all in addition to the 25-35 hours every week spent at the track itself. Poker is another game where you have to put in the work both on and off the tables. It looks like it's all flips and giggles when it's not your lifeline, even when you are doing it with all of your free time. But when the reality is win or get broke, you have to do the study and the work.

You have to be prepared for those times you get broke. Yes, it will happen to you. There are very few serious gamblers who don't at times get broke. I would venture that there is almost nobody playing poker for a living that has not had a few downswings to the point of being busted. I was fortunate to have a freelance occupation to fall back on (I was a carpenter) where I could always find a few days or weeks of well paid employment when I got broke, and my unmarried no kids no mortgage status meant that when I lost I was the only one who it affected. That didn't stop my friends and family from disrespecting my lifestyle, but it did mean that I was the only one who went to bed hungry.

Resume gaps and lost opportunity are a factor. You need to figure out right now what to do about the resume gap. I was fortunate that I spent decades in freelance occupations. I was able to travel freely for weeks or months at a time, or spend three years gambling for a living, without a blip. In regular jobs, explaining a gap can be problematic, and the lost opportunities can be a big deal. Being 25 and working a crappy job is one thing. Being 35 and competing for those crappy jobs with 25-year-olds is something else altogether.

Dealing with hidden costs can sneak up on you. If you make gambling your living then you can expect several hidden costs to have an impact on your lifestyle. The most obvious one is healthcare. Prescriptions, eyeglasses, dental care etc all become much more expensive without a health plan from your job. Transportation, meals and tips will also eat into your bottom line. As a rec, how often do you tip the floor? I'm thinking never. As a reg trying to make a living in his room you better start tipping him now. And also tip the dealers more too. If you're a rec they all need you. If you're a reg, now you need them more than they need you, and they can **** you up if they don't like you.

Of course the biggest factor is the rake, and how it seems to always go up. I started making a living gambling in my early twenties. I was out of it before I was thirty. Sort of like poker today, the house took away the edge by raising the rake, and 30 years later nobody is playing the ponies for a living anymore, it's too hard to win. So what happens if they raise the rake at your room, say they raise the cap from $5 to $6. There are dozens of threads on this forum talking about such things. Now you are playing full time, 30+ hours a week, maybe 25 hands an hour. So maybe you will lose an extra $100 to rake every week. Can your win rate absorb it? My success with the ponies was based on betting large sums on complicated exacta boxes and trifecta boxes, Daily Doubles, parlays etc, placing $2000 to $3000 a day in bets and clearing a 5% - 10% profit on my bets consistantly with the occasional big windfall. Frankly, it may have been unsustainable long term anyway, because it took a lot of study and was based largely on "feel." I did very well for a few years. And yes, went broke a few times too. But an increase of about 3% in the takeout was all it took to end it for me. That was all it took to drop my edge to where it was unsustainable.

I'm not here to tell you it can't be done, because people actually do it, lots of them. And I wouldn't say you can't do it, I don't even know you. But I will say that you sound under prepared. Frankly, until you can say you have been winning $30 an hour consistently for months or even a couple of years, have a 3 month life-roll in addition to your bankroll and a bankroll of about 50x your average buy-in (not because you need that much to play but because you need that much to not care about downswings,) you are not ready, even if your job does suck.

Last edited by 2pairsof2s; 02-19-2017 at 06:18 PM.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 06:19 PM
OP, I found this post in the PG&C thread of a poster by the name of ButterflySymmetry. I think you should talk to him as he has been down the road you are thinking of traveling.

"Re: STARTED WITH A $1/$2nl CHALLENGE, NOW WE'RE HERE.
5k hunting AGAIN.
If I get through this year, I may retire. After 15 years of poker agony, I think I may want a simpler life. When u count on poker for income, it can be emotional warfare on the soul. [emphasis added] Some days I ask, "Why me" over and over in my best Nancy Kerrigan voice. Why do I do this? Maybe it beats the alternative of working for the man, or working a 9 to 5, or whatever. Some days, I'm just not so sure. All I can do is grind on and hope it gets better. It usually does, but how many more times can I go through these cycles before it take its toll?
Sometimes my competitive drive gets the best of me. I just want to win so badly it hurts.
-$600 today. 2 big losses today: $200 from set over set otf, and $400 on a light 3 bet pre and then barreled every street w Q hi.

Stocks not good either from $50k back down to $42k. Sold UA and tried some other things that didn't work out.

Overall lost about 9k in last 2 weeks. 42k stock rt. 4,653 poker rt.

We still keep showing up because WE BELIEVE."

Just got done reading 2pair's post. You should take everything he said to heart.
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote
02-19-2017 , 06:56 PM
How can someone never book a loss of more than $400 if they are winning between $200-$900 so often?
arrogance, reality check, or is it time? Quote

      
m