Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
If he'd make $14/hour instead of $16/hour by playing poker instead of working the night shift in a freezer, that might be a vast improvement for his life.
Mathematically, this is not true. Certainty Equivalent is the amount of variance-free money you'd accept in lieu of gambling for a higher EV. CE in poker is approximately 1/2 to 3/4 of EV, and for most posters who give or take bankroll advice from 2p2, it's closer to the bottom.
You really want to be making $28/hr at poker before you consider quitting a $14/hr job.
Blackjack CEs are even lower because there is much higher variance per unit winrate. For NL, SD/WR ratios are 5-15 for solid winners. For LHE, 10-25. For BJ, 15-50. This leads to breakeven stretches of low hundreds of hours for NL, high hundreds of hours for LHE, and thousands of hours for BJ. There's a real possibility of having a breakeven year playing full time BJ as a legitimate and solid winner.