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2/5 NL win rate? 2/5 NL win rate?

08-10-2011 , 12:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Ahab
this would be based on a quite conservative average of 50 hours of play each week for a year
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08-10-2011 , 04:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SNGplayer24
doubt anyone can maintain over 50/hr over a reasonable sample(1k+ hours)
Since I began using Poker Journal I've logged 1,013 hrs of 2/5 and my hourly rate has been right at $50. I grind at the Borgata and parx four to five nights per week, and I routinely play with guys who are better than me, so I know I'm not the only one who's doing it.

the first year after I decided to start playing for a living, I averaged closer to $32/hr. In the following year, I improved on that and made $38/hr. Same thing happened in my third year...hourly increased to $42. I've now been doing this for four years. Is it possible to earn more? Well I know I don't play perfectly, so it must be possible. And like I said, there are better players than myself at parx and the borgata.
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08-10-2011 , 04:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Ahab
all these hourly win rates appear to be based on small sample sizes, someone show me an 60-80$ hr winrate with 2500 plus hours over a typical year of poker play. this would be based on a quite conservative average of 50 hours of play each week for a year
lol @ 50 hours of play each week. the whole reason I play poker for a living is so I don't have to put in 50 hours a week. At $50/hr, I can play 20 hrs per week and make $50,000 for the year, and that suits me just fine.
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08-10-2011 , 09:39 AM
I like how JAChristman says he keeps track of his results, yet he always says "a few thousand," or "about 675," or whatever random estimations he comes up with. If I had to bet on anyone ITT lying, and I guess there's a chance I'm wrong, it would be him.
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08-10-2011 , 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pineappleAAA
I like how JAChristman says he keeps track of his results, yet he always says "a few thousand," or "about 675," or whatever random estimations he comes up with. If I had to bet on anyone ITT lying, and I guess there's a chance I'm wrong, it would be him.
That I use the word 'around' and 'about' doesn't suggest that I am a liar. In this case, I said 'about 675' because I have played more since I first wrote that it was 675. But this doesn't mean I'm not a liar either.

If you want to know if I am lying or not, you should pay attention to the details. Play the it back like a poker hand and see if I'm bluffing or not. First of all, I said I wouldnt respond anymore, and yet here I am responding. Didn't I say I retired from poker last year, yet I still claim to have logged in 1000's of hours in live play, but wait...I also said I only played 400 hours of live play last year.

So yes, I am a liar. Big woop. That's fine. The responses to all of this have been that either a winrate greater than X is not possible, the sample size isn't large enough, or it is possible if the table is bad enough, ect. This is all just meaningless banter. Why is no one asking: if it is possible, how can it be achieved? Stop bickering and go out there and find people who claim a high winrate that you do believe and rather than debate their claims, pick their brains. They know something that you don't and it benefits you to figure out what that is.

Last edited by JAChristman; 08-10-2011 at 11:42 AM.
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08-10-2011 , 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnight Cowboy
Since I began using Poker Journal I've logged 1,013 hrs of 2/5 and my hourly rate has been right at $50. I grind at the Borgata and parx four to five nights per week, and I routinely play with guys who are better than me, so I know I'm not the only one who's doing it.

the first year after I decided to start playing for a living, I averaged closer to $32/hr. In the following year, I improved on that and made $38/hr. Same thing happened in my third year...hourly increased to $42. I've now been doing this for four years. Is it possible to earn more? Well I know I don't play perfectly, so it must be possible. And like I said, there are better players than myself at parx and the borgata.
I played in Vegas last month and I could tell who the local pros were within about 5 minutes of sitting down. As you might guess, the playing style of most grinders start to evolve over time, like a precision tool, to exploit very weak players.
So you might be surprised to know that when I sit on a table that has many grinders on it, my mouth starts to salivate. The reason is that most Vegas pros have never had a reason to balance their play because, against competetition that is so weak, they never had a reason to. This leaves them wide open to exploitation. And I mean WIDE open!

So I offer this advice to you. Keep your style of play. It works. But most grinders become very very lazy in the brain. You need to be different. Better. While doing your grinder thing, you should put most of your focus on the other grinders and find the holes in their game.

I'll give the simplest of examples: One grinder in Aria always min raises with top pair on a dry flop. If the person who is min-raised looks like they are not happy about it, then you should reraise here with any hand. Not even a big re-raise. You want the raise to be callable by the grinder who, if he calls on this round will certainly fold on the next round if unimproved.

So long as you don't do this play too often or give it away that you are exploiting something specific, this play will work almost every time. There are thousands of situations like this. You need to find them and learn them. This not only allows you to rule the table, but it also teaches you to balance out your play (when necessary) and leave yourself bulletproof.

Last edited by JAChristman; 08-10-2011 at 11:54 AM.
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08-10-2011 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAChristman
That I use the word 'around' and 'about' doesn't suggest that I am a liar. In this case, I said 'about 675' because I have played more since I first wrote that it was 675. But this doesn't mean I'm not a liar either.

If you want to know if I am lying or not, you should pay attention to the details. Play the it back like a poker hand and see if I'm bluffing or not. First of all, I said I wouldnt respond anymore, and yet here I am responding. Didn't I say I retired from poker last year, yet I still claim to have logged in 1000's of hours in live play, but wait...I also said I only played 400 hours of live play last year.

So yes, I am a liar. Big woop. That's fine. The responses to all of this have been that either a winrate greater than X is not possible, the sample size isn't large enough, or it is possible if the table is bad enough, ect. This is all just meaningless banter. Why is no one asking: if it is possible, how can it be achieved? Stop bickering and go out there and find people who claim a high winrate that you do believe and rather than debate their claims, pick their brains. They know something that you don't and it benefits you to figure out what that is.
"Play the it back like a poker hand and see if I'm bluffing or not."

The fact that you wrote this sentence really makes me think you're lying.
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08-10-2011 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GootRuck
Thank you for the post.

I do plan to have at least 500BB or 30BI's before I go full time but thanks for reassuring these #'s are fairly standard.

I do think NL has more donks floating into games because of TV which is good, and better table selection in LV, like someone else mentioned.

I guess I should be asking: "Is anyone a 2/5NL or 15/30-20/40 LHE pro grinder who solely makes money off poker?"

Thanks in advance, I'm not trying to rush into things but I want to get a firm grasp of what I am getting myself into and what to expect, for now I am just building a roll.
With a bankroll of 15000 it comes down to which game you feel you know and play better. The winrate for both of these games will be similar. But the low variance and overall edge NL provides does make it more attactive to pros.

For instance if you earn 1.2BB at 15/30 - time and tips it comes to about $21 and hour. (1.2*30)-(6+6+3) = $21

If you earn 7BB per hour at 2/5 - rake/time, tips, and BBJ it averages out to also about $21 an hour (7*5)-(5+5+4) = $21

Bottom line is play the game where you know your edge is bigger and you have logged the max hours. Obviously if you play more NL your edge will be much bigger in that game. I.E. you are able to punish your opponent mistakes for a larger profit and the variance is much lower.

But for someone like myself that knows the players and their tendencies, practices good game and seat selection, and has much more experience and knowledge of LHE. LHE would be the choice.
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08-10-2011 , 05:37 PM
What 2/5 game is run on time rake?
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08-10-2011 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork Fri Rize
What 2/5 game is run on time rake?
Borgata, Caesars AC. Sure there are more across the country but I am not likely to visit any room outside of PA/NJ except Bellagio, Commerce.
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08-10-2011 , 07:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pineappleAAA
"Play the it back like a poker hand and see if I'm bluffing or not."

The fact that you wrote this sentence really makes me think you're lying.
The part where I admitted that I was lying isn't what cinched it for you? What I was implying is that if you were a a clever person, you would have been able to figure out whether I was lying or not by reading through my posts like it was a poker hand, to find the inconsistencies. But since no one did, I fessed up. And now you proudly notify all that you have cracked the case! You caught me red-handed. Great job, Sherlock.

Fail! Now can we move on to more relevant and interesting topics.

Last edited by JAChristman; 08-10-2011 at 07:14 PM.
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08-10-2011 , 08:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork Fri Rize
What 2/5 game is run on time rake?
Hollywood @ Charles Town, WV
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08-12-2011 , 01:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAChristman
The part where I admitted that I was lying isn't what cinched it for you? What I was implying is that if you were a a clever person, you would have been able to figure out whether I was lying or not by reading through my posts like it was a poker hand, to find the inconsistencies. But since no one did, I fessed up. And now you proudly notify all that you have cracked the case! You caught me red-handed. Great job, Sherlock.

Fail! Now can we move on to more relevant and interesting topics.
To summarize, there is a very small chance that you win at poker, and an even lower one that you win at any sizable rate.
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08-13-2011 , 03:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pineappleAAA
To summarize, there is a very small chance that you win at poker, and an even lower one that you win at any sizable rate.
Truth is I have been playing poker for a living for 5 years, starting with online tournaments and then moving on the cash games. In late 2009 and early 2010, I started playing live poker but was not very comfortable doing all the moves that I do online. I played 400 hours and had a win rate of $60/hr. While playing, I never felt like I was performing to my ability and I didn't think my win rate was very good.

In March of 2010 my brother died. I played the Battle of the Bay, got 1st place, then retired from poker to pursue making games and puzzles. 18 weeks ago, I started playing again to train for the Battle of the Bay, because I thought it would be cool to get 1st again. And that's how I got back into it. This year, I got 4th in the 100k Battle of the Bay, which was reassuring since it told me that I still had the skills. After the tournament was over, my interest in poker was reinvigorated and I continued to play. Since I started playing poker again, I logged 200 hours in Vegas with a winrate of $110/hr and 500 hours in my hometown with a win rate of $80/hr. And despite what you guys say, I am still unsatisfied and feel I can and will do better. In fact, I thought all the local pros were achieving similar results and only because I had a converssation with one of them and realized that they were soon to be looking for work that I got curious and decided to see what the normal winrate with $2/5 was.

I think what makes me successful is that I am obsessed with experimenting and learning as much as possible. Luck might have something to do with it as well. Some of you guys have read my other posts and have messaged me asking for poker advice. Thank you for that. I enjoy being challenged by intersting situations.

Last edited by JAChristman; 08-13-2011 at 03:58 AM.
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08-13-2011 , 07:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAChristman
I played 400 hours and had a win rate of $60/hr.

Since I started playing poker again, I logged 200 hours in Vegas with a winrate of $110/hr and 500 hours in my hometown with a win rate of $80/hr.
Mmm hmm.
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08-13-2011 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAChristman
Some of you guys have read my other posts and have messaged me asking for poker advice. Thank you for that. I enjoy being challenged by intersting situations.
Thank you for taking the time to respond and generously helping us with our questions. I wish I could crawl into your head for a day and see what you see at the table. The example of the Las Vegas grinder and his betting patterns helped me realize I am missing a lot of spots in my game. Your posts are inspiring. Hope you keep them coming.
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08-13-2011 , 08:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rinchon
Thank you for taking the time to respond and generously helping us with our questions. I wish I could crawl into your head for a day and see what you see at the table. The example of the Las Vegas grinder and his betting patterns helped me realize I am missing a lot of spots in my game. Your posts are inspiring. Hope you keep them coming.
No problem. Glad to help.
Along those lines, I have one more suggestion. A high percentage of the time, if you have a gut feeling that a person is weak (and you have no one else to worry about), try making some kind of aggressive action, such as raising, or calling with the intention of betting ro raising the next round (try different variations). You're doing this for a few reasons...one is you need to come out of your shell, you need to find other ways to eek profit, and you need feedback, whether positive or negative. Only by getting feedback can you improve your insticts.
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08-14-2011 , 05:33 AM
I am a winning, but not great no limit player and def think $75 at 2/5 is attainable. I play with guys who lose 2x and there are not many thinking players in my area. These #s are prolly easier in local homegames where whales last longer and have fewer sharks hunting them where a popular card room might have 4 2/5s going and when a whale sits every thinking player in the room gets on the list.
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08-14-2011 , 05:40 AM
I do not know which $75 per hour winners in this thread are telling the truth or lying, but i doubt they are all lying. Some players are luckier than other to have access to certain games.
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08-14-2011 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAChristman
No problem. Glad to help.
Along those lines, I have one more suggestion. A high percentage of the time, if you have a gut feeling that a person is weak (and you have no one else to worry about), try making some kind of aggressive action, such as raising, or calling with the intention of betting ro raising the next round (try different variations). You're doing this for a few reasons...one is you need to come out of your shell, you need to find other ways to eek profit, and you need feedback, whether positive or negative. Only by getting feedback can you improve your insticts.
Thank you for the excellent suggestion. My standard ABC game is not giving me anywhere near your winrate. This is a good first step to open up my game. Thank you!!
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08-14-2011 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokahBlows
Threads like this make me lol. All the regs say 70 to a 100/hour winrate is not possible,bs. It depends on your drive and how long you can play on a daily.
What difference does it make how long you can play? We're talking about an hourly rate, which is an average. And it goes without saying that the more hours you play, the worse your average will be. This is due to several factors, but mostly because we're not playing our A game beyond a certain number of hours, and also because the games aren't always good. This is why I try to concentrate my play on nights and weekends.
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08-14-2011 , 03:42 PM
These are my results for the year. One of these days is not like the others:



Go on and say "blah blah sample size" but Friday is an unquestionably soft day to play. If you play every Friday from 4PM-4AM you could rack up a ton of hours and have a very high (yes ~$70/hr) win rate by playing the majority of your hours on Friday and Saturday. I don't know of anyone with that high of a rate but I know many players who are much much better than me. Problem is, they all play 5/10 and 10/25.

I think $70/hr is really pushing it at 2/5 though. Like you would have to be a non-stop table changer and almost always be on the best table in the room. I table change around 3 times per night because I scan the tables constantly looking for marks and exploitable regs. You have to do that and do it very well. Also no tilting which I am very guilty of.

Again, not many people are walking around with 2,000 hr 2/5 game logs at $50+/hr because everyone who is capable of it moves up.
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08-14-2011 , 08:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ashinynickel
These are my results for the year. One of these days is not like the others:



Go on and say "blah blah sample size" but Friday is an unquestionably soft day to play. If you play every Friday from 4PM-4AM you could rack up a ton of hours and have a very high (yes ~$70/hr) win rate by playing the majority of your hours on Friday and Saturday. I don't know of anyone with that high of a rate but I know many players who are much much better than me. Problem is, they all play 5/10 and 10/25.

I think $70/hr is really pushing it at 2/5 though. Like you would have to be a non-stop table changer and almost always be on the best table in the room. I table change around 3 times per night because I scan the tables constantly looking for marks and exploitable regs. You have to do that and do it very well. Also no tilting which I am very guilty of.

Again, not many people are walking around with 2,000 hr 2/5 game logs at $50+/hr because everyone who is capable of it moves up.
What is the app your using for tracking? will it work on either iphone or droid? thanks...nice winrate...

Why have you not moved up? Is it because you can beat the games for a good winrate with little risk to your roll?
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08-14-2011 , 09:49 PM
Poker Income Pro. Only for iPhone, iPod and iPad.

I haven't moved up because I've lost about $10,000 in staking (ugh I know) and I had to spend a ton of money because of a personal emergency earlier this year.
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08-14-2011 , 10:34 PM
Not true!
Android ver here:
http://www.pokerchang.com/android.htm


Quote:
Originally Posted by ashinynickel
Poker Income Pro. Only for iPhone, iPod and iPad.

I haven't moved up because I've lost about $10,000 in staking (ugh I know) and I had to spend a ton of money because of a personal emergency earlier this year.
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