So I made a prop bet that my friend couldn't beat 1/2 live for 30bb/100 over 500 hours. Only catch really is the game plays fairly deep... semi-soft.

Good or bad bet?

How are you going to track how many hands played (I assume "30bb/100" means 30 big blinds ($60) per 100 hands)? Are you just going to ASSume 25 hands/hr? Why not just figure an hourly rate?

Also, how are you going to monitor it? Are you going to come with him EVERY TIME he goes to the play cards for the next year to make sure he doesn't inflate his numbers?

He wouldnt lie.

Its an assumtion of hourly hands.

Even at the weakest 1/2 games, $60/hour is a lot. I like your side unless it's filled with super-mega fish.

Hes currently 42bb/100 over about 64 hours.

I still like my chances.

why are you measuring this in bb/100? Why not just $$/hr or $X profit at the end of Y hours?

I guess it doesn't really matter, 10.4k at the end of the 500 hours would be the same

30bb/hr = $60/hr (ain't happening)
30bb/100 = $15/hr (assuming 25 hands/hr - easily doable)

Yeah I guess it would work out at $21/hour. Doable. We will see

Agree with above. About $20/hr is totally doable at that game.

It's an honor bet you're asking to get cheated so hopefully for you it isn't for that much.

It would have been easier to say $/hr as others have said as that's the way you're going to measure it. Where is he going to be playing and does he have options regarding this? Does he tip and does that get subtracted or accounted for separately? What about other expenses and benefits? How's the rake? Is there a jackpot drop? If so does a jackpot win count on his hourly? Does short handed play count? How long does he have to finish? When/where/how quickly is he in fact going to do it?

He'll probably win or come close and fudge the numbers to win (he might even do this in a way where he believes it...i.e. he'll bust two buy-ins one night and go win it back at blackjack and call it a break-even session). If the bet is dead on the level you should usually at least have a shot and sometimes have the nuts. If it's a good locale and he puts the 500 hours in all during peak times and a lot of the other questions are in his favor it makes a big difference. It's a much better bet if he has to do it in two months (this is the thing people who play only on weekends when they feel good and it's good action really don't get a grasp of when they quote their hourly and talk about going pro) and you have some at least semi-reliable vouching/tracking system.

100% correct and this is the main difference. There is no way he's doing $60/hr without a crazy run over 500 hours and even with the run, it will be difficult to do over 500 hours. I believe this is possible over 200 max but after that it is difficult to sustain such a long positive run.

If it's $15/hr, then that is a super easy bet. I and many other players I know average $20-$30 at $1/2nl so $15/hr over 500 is pretty guaranteed unless you run SUPER bad (Superbad is a great movie!)

If your friend is anywhere near being good $21 should be super easy to beat. Hoping you didn't bet a lot or that your friend is no good haha

Before I moved up to 2/5nl, I CRUSHED 1/2nl for $25/hr+ over 300 hrs sample size

If your friend is competent, you're screwed.

only way you win this bet is if the tables are routinely short or capped buy-in of 50bb.

Yeah, you are well and truly screwed. HOpe you didn't bet a lot.

500 hrs is a LOT for a prop bet like this. At 20 hrs a week (part time, i'm assuming he's never grinding this 40hrs a week) this is going to take him 6 months!!!!

that's a retarded prop bet for anything less than the difference in his hourly from 2/5nl (assuming he plays 2/5nl).

Truth be told, unless you bet $10k, this prop bet wouldn't be worth doing. In fact, I wouldn't do it for anything less than $25k.

If it doesn't start being worth your while until $25K you rarely can't find a game worth more than $75/hr. That or some of the other assumptions are wrong or exaggerated (or you have some non-monetary reasons for not taking it before 25K).

Either way that's not what op's opponent is described as. For a regular 1/2 grinder this bet is probably worth negative dollars (they should pay somebody to convince them they are on this) if your guys other assumptions are good.