bacats yes 4-1 pot odds versus 43-57 dog sounds great. But if on money bubble? No. ICM says on money bubble HU you only call chip leaders shove with AA or KK if a short-stack is around.

or

You are 10 handed at main event, on button AA. You have 6th chip-stack at 4.5M. UTG shoves 3.5M, MP shoves 5M, CO shoves 6M. 10th pays $650,000. 9th pays $1,000,000 with 4 months to get sponsors for you shirt and hat worth $50k-$500k depending on how long you last.

Do you insta-call?

This one would be a person's risk preference. I would throw up a little into my throat and fold.

That would make me sick just to watch.

Speaking of allowing the table to spout nonsense. Do you think it's okay to add to the nonsense to make yourself look less good? I was at a party with a bunch of friends, and some people I don't know. The party was to play Spades, winning team takes all. With every team out but last 2 all the rest decide to play poker. A couple guys I don't know start acting like they are
superstars, so I ask one if he'll teach me what beats what; ask what are blinds and a few other things. A friend of mine smiles, pulls me aside and says that's not right since I was one of the top 2 players there. Is it wrong?

I just figure it salemanship same as acting weak with quad aces to get a call.

@KingLeonidas,

I might do this at a casino but I wouldn't do it amongst friends.

Can't stop cracking up at this part. Awesome.

What 2 outs would those be? Pretty sure that is the 6 outer you were searching for..

Maybe you should first look what first to eight pays. If you quadruple up and almost elimnate these guys in the same hand you are almost guaranteed six place and should have a good chip stack compared to others. If the payout structure in your tournament isn't totally weird this is an instacall.

edit: I just saw that you wrote that you are in sixth place before the hands. As two of your opponents have you covered, they are obviously ahead of you. That will make you close to chip leader after the hand.

If the payout structure isn't superflat and the chip leader doesn't have like 80% of chips or something you can't fold this.

November 9, there are 10 players left. That's about the only time it would make sense, barring very unusual circumstances. That's what he was saying when he said 10 players at main event. Being a member of the N9 does have a lot of side benefits that throw ICM calculations for a loop.

Not to be grammar nit, but I think your placement of "if a short-stack is around" is incorrect, and actually makes the statement incorrect.

You're saying ICM says on-money bubble, with a short-stack around, you only call chip leaders shove with AA/KK (at least I think that's what you are saying).

The way you wrote it means - "On money bubble, HU, only call chip leaders shove with AA/KK IF a short stack is around", as in, if there's no short-stack around you should fold to chip leaders shove with less than AA/KK.

If anything, the lack of a short-stack should make it more reasonable to call the chip leaders shove with less than AA/KK.

Edit - I don't think it's too off-topic for this thread, but if it is, mods feel free to edit/remove, I won't get offended.

enough to fold AK there, but Aces are +EV by 2 million$ or something. plus the attention you get for busting out at that spot with Aces.
If you fold that on TV you might actually get killed before november by a tilted 2+2er. So put that into your calculations and you have a snapcall.

8/16 game had a guy fold QQ face up on an AA2 board bc other guy bet and he said "guy doesn't know how to play jackpot"... jackpot was 40k.

to clarify:

9 man SNG pays 3 20-30-50.

4 left. blinds 200/400 5800c, 4900c, 2000c, 800c. chip leader first to act shoves, you on button look down at QQ. what do you do? ICM says fold.

All I am saying.

if 10 left in main event and faced with 1 all-in with AA always call, 2 all-ins ( now 62-38) probably have to call. in the unlikely event of 3 all-ins ahead of you, I think you can't be faulted for the fold.

The guy on the PS Big game got to $240k and folded AA and KK. If he had played AA, Phil Laak's flopped quad 6's would've hurt him badly.

Then the last show where the dude got AA in vs KK...awesime, loved seeing the pro get crushed. And how does that pro make the call of a shove there. Guy ONLY has AA there EVER.

You would still massively increase your chance to win the event. If you take into account final-table-exposure money, you clearly should take into account WSOPME-champion-exposure money. And the payjumps escalate at the final table too.

Of course I understand if people want to reduce variance, but you seemed to present folding like a +EV decision. It clearly isn't.

I'm not famliar with the PS Big Game, but I think the guy gets to keep everything above 100k. Correct?

Now assuming Laak had 100k, the EV of going all-in against an underpari is roughly .8*(140k+240k)-.2*(-240k)=304k-48k.

So you make around 250k Sklansky bucks by doing that play. Of course it's different if there was post-flop play, but you can still move all-in instead of folding. Obviously that reduces your EV as you will only pick up the blinds a lot of the time, but still it's better than folding.

Again if your goal is do reduce variance that's perfectly understandable and if you include your psychological well-being it might be +EV that way, but that's not the way you present it.