Originally Posted by Gesangsverein
anyone else gonna tell us about his heater?
The real question whenever these threads come up is "How do you know you are beating the game for a decent amount"
So rather than post my rates, let me post my opinions based on grinding from the past 2 years of grinding 1/2nl, 1/3nl, and 2/5nl for a living. Even though I play 5/10nl as well, I don't have the hours at 5/10nl required to feel comfortable giving an opinion
Winrates fall into 4 winning categories for me: Breakeven, Okay, Good, Crushing
In terms of hours, you shouldn't start to believe your winrate until you get to a MINIMUM of 300hrs. And that should also include a self analysis of your wins and loses beyond "I got sucked out on". You should break down "how" you are winning and losing. The more of your wins that come from flopping/turning miracle gin hands like full houses and straight flushes, the more likely you are just running hot. The more your wins come from well thought out play and value betting and good folds, the more likely you are playing good. (Notice my use of the word "likely")
In terms of the winning categories, the following is my opinion.
1/2nl and 1/3nl
(assuming 100bb buy-in tables)
Losing 50% of players 0bb/hr or less
Breakeven 20% of players: 2bb-3bb/hr
Okay 15% of players: 4bb-7bb/hr
Good 10% of players: 8bbbb - 12bb/hr
Crush 5% of players: 12bb+/hr
[B]2/5nl (assuming 100bb buy-in tables)
Losing 40% of players 0bb/hr or less
Breakeven 25% of players: 1bb-2bb/hr
Okay 20% of players: 3bb-5bb/hr
Good 10% of players: 5bbbb - 9bb/hr
Crush 5% of players: 10bb+/hr
I want to call attention to the CRUSH aspect. When you are on a heater, you can easily average 20bb/hr over a 100hrs leg. What often happens is someone gets on a heater, crushes the game for 15bb+ for a few weeks and then thinks "Man, i'm the next Ivey or Durr".
But then, the math catches up to them and they hit a "downswing" when in reality, its not a downswing, its actually just a normal swing.
The sickest example of this is there was this 2/5nl drooler who was one of the biggest donators to the game, easily would lose 3-5 $500 buy-ins per session.
Then I was at the table when he ran like god and made $5K in 2 hours. Then he went on the sickest 3 day run i've ever seen, 3 sessions where he cashed out between $4k to $7k.
So, now, he thinks he's crushing the game and asks my opinion if he should move up to the 5/10nl game which allows up to a $3k buy-in and really plays more like a 10/20nl. I tell him he's not ready but of course he thinks he's the best player ever so he moves up.
And then he has a lucky run at 5/10nl, 4 days of cashing out around $5k - $10k. So he's loving life, being a ballah and then the math catches up with him.
Over the next month, he easily drops over $70k at the 5/10nl table and the 5/10nl players literally FIGHT each other to get at the same table he's playing at LOL. All the while he's whining to me about suck outs and bad beats, etc etc.
What makes his downswing or more accurately "normal swing" even funnier is ego, since he "moved up" to 5/10nl the thought of coming back down to 2/5nl came across to him like slumming LOL.
Eventually he went through all his disposable income and disappeared from the casino for a few months until he got some more money. Of course "now" he considers himself a 5/10nl player and only plays that game, so he burns through his bankroll pretty quickly. He'll play for 1 week then disappear for a month then come back for a week burn through his bankroll, disappear for a month, rinse and repeat...
Two of my friends have paid the floor people to give them a call whenever he is at the tables LOL. Its like the batsignal. He comes and sits down and players literally come to the casino bursting through the doors out of breath rushing to the table hoping to get on the list and to the table before the free money train runs out of steam