Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
I write a book based on mathematical modeling and statistical theory, something I have a strong background in, and you wonder how many other fields I claim to be an expert.
The following, which I'm sure you'll find disappointing, is from the back cover:
So I'm not claiming to be an expert in lots of different fields, and thius includes psychology.
MM
But you are dismissing the work of psychologists in the field of poker, which is setting yourself as more "expert" than them, is it not.
What do you say about Stuey, who was a tournament genius yet still had mega-tilt built into his psyche? According to you, seemingly, there is only one factor and it is: the more expert I am at poker the less I will tilt.
That one case (and there are too many others to count) seems enough to contradict such a theory.
As Dostoevsky said, consciousness is not as simple as twice two makes four.
As I say, there are many tracks operating in consciousness ... only one of which at the poker table is "how expert I am at the game, how much knowledge and perception I have, etc." Also operating are emotions (such as critically, frustration), impulse control issues, character issues, so-called "demons," self-esteem issues (as in self-loathing, wholly unrelated to poker skills) ... etc. All these are wider than "poker expertise" and never cease operating in consciousness ... including when one is at the poker table.
Also, I find the idea that execution isn't a part of poker as it is other games quite strange. With the exact same knowledge from one session to the next, we can play stellar one time and badly the next, or anything in between. Just as with tennis, golf, etc. There is an execution factor it seems, just not related to speed and physical coordination. I"m quite sure a neurologist would argue that every human behavior, physical and mental, doing and thinking, is a function of neurological performance and coordination and is thus subject to the same variance.
My compliments on not cutting me off, but you've demonstrated more reserve than most of the mods so I shouldn't be surprised. Now to your field (definitely not mine). When you model something mathematically, what is that telling you about the causes of the distributions? The fact that you can model tilt, what does or can it say about which of the aforementioned factors is driving the behavior? I don't know. I'm very skeptical that it has any ability to do that.