It is NOT true. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabi...nsity_function. The probability of lying between any two values is the integral between those two values on the curve, or in simpler terms, the area under the curve. The area under the curve near the mean value is greater, since the value of the function is larger.

To get an approximate probability of being at an exact value, you could take the area under the curve between that value and that value plus some small amount. Clearly if you're closer to the mean you'll get a greater area under the curve and further away you get a smaller amount.

I don't have anything to add, but I have to say I enjoyed this video a lot. Thanks!

this was my thinking and wanted to make sure no one else had commented on it yet, but i wonder what the graph could actually look like, since you never know your true win rate.

i think the actual "downswing"/bad luck whatever you want to call it could be worse then you think because your winrate changes every hand you play. so for this guy who has had the 4PTBB/100 when he starts to lose his WR might become 3 for his overall earnings which would make the variance even higher

Maybe someone can reupload this video?

Heh, +1. I was like, hmm this looks interesting then I was all fuuuuuu FBI

+111111111111111

This thread has altered my outset..thanks for sharing the knowledge

+1 on requesting reupload

*bump*

Grunched a bit, but would also like to see the original video.

In the meantime, here's a little clip showing simulations of 1 million $1 coin flips. (click for video)

can someone reupload the video, am very interested

+1
same

What's a good site to upload it at?

Ok here's the file guys:

http://www.sendspace.com/file/u8t855

awesome ty!

ty sir