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Old 11-09-2016, 03:09 AM   #26
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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Originally Posted by Dr. Meh View Post
What the opposing view states, and this study agrees with, is individual differences in the way of talents and attributes are a better predictor of performance than practice.
No, it doesn't. What the authors actually say:

Quote:
An important goal for future research on expert performance is to draw on existing theories of individual differences (e.g.,Ackerman, 1987; Gagnť, 2009; Schmidt, 2014; Simonton, 2014) to identify basic abilities and other individual difference factors that explain variance in performance and to estimate their importance as predictor variables relative to deliberate practice.
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So let me make this easier for you to isolate your position: do you think practice is the most important factor as the 10,000 Hour Rule states or that individual characteristics and natural attributes, as I and this article state, is the most important factor?
I agree with the conclusion reached in the study - more research needs to be done before determining the importance of practice relative to individual characteristics and natural attributes.
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Old 11-09-2016, 09:52 AM   #27
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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No, it doesn't. What the authors actually say:





I agree with the conclusion reached in the study - more research needs to be done before determining the importance of practice relative to individual characteristics and natural attributes.
Sigh. This is just getting sad now. It's clear you're just looking for a fight and are willing to twist and manipulate things to fit your narrative all while ignoring questions and not actually taking a position.

It's obvious you're doing this for jollies so I'll leave you to it. Good luck with everything.
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Old 11-09-2016, 10:10 AM   #28
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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Good luck with everything.
Thanks, but you don't need luck when you take the time to read studies thoroughly so you're able to fully comprehend the conclusions and implications.
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Old 11-09-2016, 11:24 PM   #29
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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Thanks, but you don't need luck when you take the time to read studies thoroughly so you're able to fully comprehend the conclusions and implications.
I know. That's why I wished you luck.
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Old 11-12-2016, 11:30 AM   #30
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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Originally Posted by Dr. Meh View Post
So let me make this easier for you to isolate your position: do you think practice is the most important factor as the 10,000 Hour Rule states or that individual characteristics and natural attributes, as I and this article state, is the most important factor?

As much as you try to spin it, you can't have it both ways. Pick one.
These two are not the only choices. There are other important factors, like socio ecconomic factors, luck, the size of ones social network and so on. So if the study says that practise is responsible for 25%, then that is exactly what the study says. It doesen't make any other predictions,
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Old 11-12-2016, 01:39 PM   #31
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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These two are not the only choices. There are other important factors, like socio ecconomic factors, luck, the size of ones social network and so on. So if the study says that practise is responsible for 25%, then that is exactly what the study says. It doesen't make any other predictions,
I'm guessing you haven't read the study. Because it does actually say they recommend further investigation into personal traits and attributes without mentioning the other factors you stated. Those other factors are supposed to be negated by having enough deliberate practice to overcome them. If you buy into the 10,000 Hour Rule, that is.
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Old 11-13-2016, 04:55 PM   #32
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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I'm guessing you haven't read the study. Because it does actually say they recommend further investigation into personal traits and attributes without mentioning the other factors you stated. Those other factors are supposed to be negated by having enough deliberate practice to overcome them. If you buy into the 10,000 Hour Rule, that is.
No I just read the article. But even if they reccomend further investigation into personal traits and attributes, they should give some argument for that (maybe they did) It doesen't follow logically that if it isn't practise it must be personal traits.
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Old 11-14-2016, 01:09 AM   #33
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

most important thing i think is emotional control / putting in hours analyzing spots/putting in hands, i imagine someone like otb_redbaron has spent thousands of hours studying spots / work etc leaving him miles ahead of everyone else...

also mental strength / fearlessness, i.e you are printing $$ at midstakes but dont have the mental ability to handle HS swings (up down 5/6 figs in a session) along with being scared of playing jungle/sauce/baron or whoever is sitting....

Last edited by fkjail; 11-14-2016 at 01:15 AM.
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Old 11-14-2016, 03:27 PM   #34
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

Ego makes it nearly impossible for most poker players to ever become elite. They will grind as much as 10-30k hours thinking their style is great and doesnt need much work and that as long as they are playing they will improve.

Poker is a tricky game because the optimal way to play at each game/stake varies so much with different exploit styles until you reach the top 0.1% of players where GTO factors in a lot more, to what humans are capable of anyways. That and lack of self awareness/emotion control will make it impossible for most to become elite.
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Old 11-16-2016, 12:47 AM   #35
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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In the current issue of the 2+2 magazine Mason writes that it doesen't take 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player. He argues that the 10 000 'rule' only aplies to physical sports and not knowledge fields. This isn't true, because the findings were first uncovered when studying what seperated chess grand masters from other chess players.

What do we mean when talking about being elite? It is not only being able to win at the game, for that you only nedd a bit of knowledge and sitting down at a table where the rest of the players are completley clueless. I think we are talking about being among the best in the world. Not necessarily winning the most money, because this depends more on the skill gap between your ability and the other players ability than on your ability in a vaccum.

Anyways some reasons why it may take longer to become elite:
  • Not all information is correct

    The information available needs to be put into a context. Sometimes it is correct to min 3-bet your aces, sometimes it is correct to move all in. Much information is also delivered by forum posters whose credentials are questionable
  • Bad feeback loop

    Sometimes it is hard to find out if you are losing because the others are playing better or if you are losing because you are unlucky. There are no tools to check your lines, the same way chess players can check their lines with chess software. There are some solvers, but they depend on you puttin villian on a correct range. garbage in, garbage out.
  • People have incentives to not share their information

    In chess, there is usually more money to be made from teaching chess than actually playing. Except at the highest level. Not necessairily so in poker.

So some reasons why it may take a while to get really good at poker. There are of course some things that will speed up the learning process, but Iam saving that for another day. this post is already too long
Hi Aces123123:

Please find below the chapter from my book Real Poker Psychology on this subject.

Best wishes,
Mason

10,000 Hours


In Positive Poker: A Modern Psychological Approach to Mastering Your Mental Game by Dr. Patricia Cardner with Jonathan Little, thereís a lot of emphasis on 10,000 hours. Apparently, to become good at something at an elite level you need to spend 10,000 hours working on it, and you need to work on it the right way. And of course this 10,000 hours includes poker.

Let me give a little history. In the early 1980s I lived in Southern California where there were lots of big poker clubs and developed an interest in poker. But only forms of draw poker were legal at that time and there was very little information available on these games. I did get what there was and did study it. Thank you David Sklansky, Mike Caro, and John Fox. I would say that after maybe 20 hours of work, the low limit games became beatable for me. Of course, I continued to review my hands and think about the game, but never came close to 10,000 hours.

In 1986 I wanted to leave my job and move to Las Vegas. To do this, it became necessary to learn limit hold íem since that was the game that was most appealing to me and the draw poker games were not spread in Las Vegas. Fortunately, I got some help from David Sklansky and remember asking David how long he thought it would take to become a good limit hold íem player. His answer was six weeks and I found that to be about right. That is, after six weeks I was a consistent winner in the $10-$20 games of that time and was able to leave my job with the Northrop Corporation and permanently move to Las Vegas in 1987.

Now since then I have continued to work on my poker and was able to become proficient at other forms besides draw and limit hold íem, but the 10,000 hour number is crazy. So where does it come from?

I think thereís two answers. The first is that to be an elite athlete at some particular sport, it does take 10,000 hours. But thatís not because knowing what to do in many situations is so difficult. Itís more to do with developing timing, speed, and coordination, and that does take a long time. Of course, in poker, timing, speed, and coordination is not an issue.

The second reason has to do with the large short-term standard deviation that is present in most forms of poker. Itís my contention that there is little difference between the top players whether itís tournaments or cash games. But it sure doesnít seem that way.

Letís look at tennis again. Itís also my opinion that the difference between the best players that you see on TV is quite small. So why does a Roger Federer or a Serena Williams dominate so much? The answer has to be that tennis also has a small short-term luck factor. That is, if youíre a little better than someone else, youíll win most every time, and Iíve talked to a number of very good tennis players over the years and they all agree with this.

In golf, the best players donít seem to dominate quite as much as they do in tennis, and unknown golfers always seem to hit a few tournaments each year. And the most likely reason for this is that the short-term standard deviation in golf is probably larger than tennis.

Now letís look at poker. One of the things we see here is that every year there are always a couple of players who seem to do great. Theyíll win a number of tournaments or score big in the cash games. So does this mean they are really elite players who have put in a tremendous amount of time playing, studying, and reviewing their games to gain a large edge over the competition. The answer is no.

Now donít get me wrong. Iím not saying that these people arenít excellent players who donít put time into improving their games. In fact, some of them are clearly the best in the world. But their true edge isnít as big as it may seem, they just got on the right side of the standard deviation, and when a top player gets lucky, he can have incredible results.

As one final specific example, letís talk about ranges. This idea has been the rage for the past few years and it certainly is quite significant relative to how top players now approach the game of poker. In fact, it has significantly impacted my play and that of many, many others. But if I or some expert was to write a definitive book on ranges and how to use them, how long would it be?

When I asked David Sklansky this question, he told me five pages. I tend to give a few more examples in my writing, so my answer might be seven or eight. But one thing is for sure. To master ranges and understand well how they work and how they should impact your strategy at the poker table, it wonít take thousands of hours. The number should be much, much smaller.

And one final thought. If new players understood that it would take 10,000 hours of play and study to become a top notch poker player, I wonder how many new players there would be. Again, you donít need to work on timing, speed, and coordination, and you donít have to gain a knowledge of advanced mathematics to play well. So a lot less than 10,000 hours should do the trick, and I do mean a lot less.
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Old 11-16-2016, 12:52 AM   #36
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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While that may be true, in chess both players have the same information available to them. Your opponent can see everything you are doing. In poker, someone could take an unorthodox line 20% of the time for example, and you may never know how often they're doing that. I think that evens the two up somewhat.
Hi winnercircle:

Except that in poker if you're having trouble against a certain opponent you can drop into GTO strategies when possible and then you won't care how he plays.

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 11-16-2016, 12:58 AM   #37
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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Originally Posted by Dr. Meh View Post
It's an arbitrary number and a pseudo psychological way to try to manipulate the public into buying a system which ultimately boils down to a reincarnation of the phrase "practice makes perfect." Of course you do better the more you practice. But there is no 10,000 hour rule.

Incidentally, chess has optimal play based on your opponent's moves. Poker play is dependent on more variables for optimal play. But perhaps the most important distinction is the luck factor in poker. It doesn't exist in chess.
Hi Dr. Meh:

I strongly agree when it comes to poker. It's my opinion that some of these poker psychologists who sell their services need this number to help convince their students to keep taking lessons.

However, and I know from personal experience, in an athletic sport like tennis, to be really good at it takes a lot of practice time which should mean at the very least thousands of hours.

As for chess, I don't know enough about it to comment.

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 11-16-2016, 01:00 AM   #38
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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The 10k is as true as the amount of practise one needs somewhere.

If u think u can play tens of tables of chess blindfolded simultaneously with a winning score against decent opponents without talent, then u dont have a clue.

You might be able to do pretty well with talent and little practise but the possible high competition needs ever higher talent and amount of practise.

How much is 1 percent? May be all u need to turn a profit.

The poker argument is about weak competition and a relatively easy or less talent needing game relative to competition and even being an easy game like easy studies where one can score high enough or even perfect and it being less or not at all about talent, and there is no 10k hours, it being just a number.
Hi Mikro:

Also, in poker, there isn't much need for speed, timing, and coordination which reduces the amount of time required to get good at it.

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 11-16-2016, 01:03 AM   #39
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
What the meta-analysis you quoted actually concluded:



As most people in the field have concluded, the practice rule is significant for certain fields, but not for others. The variance explained by deliberate practice for sports, music and games is still arguably the biggest single predictor of success in these fields, and therefore has to be considered highly significant.

Of course, physiology (sports), and cognitive ability (music, games) can be argued as bigger predictors, however both physiology and cognitive ability can be further delineated (strength, stamina, hand-eye coordination, etc), and therefore practice may still be the single most important factor for success in these fields.
Hi Elrazor:

As usual, I think you have this exactly right.

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 11-16-2016, 01:11 AM   #40
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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I never intended to try to prove that it takes longer than 10 000 hours. I just wanted to raise some points that the 10 000 rule might be applicable to poker, since Mason seems to think it isn't

I would say that humans usually have quite a difficult time to understand variance. This variance makes learning to play poker well, harder than many other fields, where you can trust the feedback you get.
Hi Aces:

I agree completely with the sentence I bolded. But I'll take it one step further. I believe that some of these poker mental coaches, assuming they're sincere, don't understand how statistical variance works either. Specifically, they seem to think that variance just goes on and on without realizing that it disipates over time when compared to the mean (or win rate in poker).

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 11-16-2016, 02:45 AM   #41
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
I think there’s two answers. The first is that to be an elite athlete at some particular sport, it does take 10,000 hours. But that’s not because knowing what to do in many situations is so difficult. It’s more to do with developing timing, speed, and coordination, and that does take a long time. Of course, in poker, timing, speed, and coordination is not an issue.
This is a good point. I think while I inferred that certain skills such as strength, speed, hand-eye coordination are "natural talents", you can also train these skills to a point. However, your natural physiology will provide a ceiling to how far these skills can be developed.

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Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
Let’s look at tennis again. It’s also my opinion that the difference between the best players that you see on TV is quite small. So why does a Roger Federer or a Serena Williams dominate so much? The answer has to be that tennis also has a small short-term luck factor. That is, if you’re a little better than someone else, you’ll win most every time, and I’ve talked to a number of very good tennis players over the years and they all agree with this.
Good point, particularly wrt tennis. In a close 5 set match between 2 top players, the result will often come down to a handful of points. These points can be decided by a lucky net-cord, or who can raise their game in the clutch points. A good example is Federer V Roddick at Wimbledon in 2009. I think you can argue Roddick played the better tennis for the majority of the match - Federer's only break of serve came at match point 14-15 in the 5th.

I'm not sure how many hours of practice can prepare you for dealing with that particular situation, if at all. Likewise with poker, some players freeze in big pots or at final tables, while some can noticeably raise their game. Top sportsmen and poker players both need a certain amount of pressure to motivate them to perform. However, once this pressure exceeds our coping resources, it leads to stress and ultimately a decline in performance. I'm not sure any amount of deliberate practice can prepare or compensate for that.
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Old 11-16-2016, 03:28 AM   #42
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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This is a good point. I think while I inferred that certain skills such as strength, speed, hand-eye coordination are "natural talents", you can also train these skills to a point. However, your natural physiology will provide a ceiling to how far these skills can be developed.



Good point, particularly wrt tennis. In a close 5 set match between 2 top players, the result will often come down to a handful of points. These points can be decided by a lucky net-cord, or who can raise their game in the clutch points. A good example is Federer V Roddick at Wimbledon in 2009. I think you can argue Roddick played the better tennis for the majority of the match - Federer's only break of serve came at match point 14-15 in the 5th.

I'm not sure how many hours of practice can prepare you for dealing with that particular situation, if at all. Likewise with poker, some players freeze in big pots or at final tables, while some can noticeably raise their game. Top sportsmen and poker players both need a certain amount of pressure to motivate them to perform. However, once this pressure exceeds our coping resources, it leads to stress and ultimately a decline in performance. I'm not sure any amount of deliberate practice can prepare or compensate for that.
Hi Elrazor:

When I was working on my book, and on work I've done since the publication of my book, so much of this stuff always seems to come back to the idea that poker is not a game that requires, speed, timing, and coordination. Yes there may be an execution factor as well as a knowledge factor, but the execution factor in poker has to be small .

The mental coaches that I'm most familiar with, Cardner, Tendler, and Roe, all seem to emphasize stuff that comes from the sports world and should be of help to things like speed, timing, and coordination. For instance, if you can reduce stress, I do agree that you'll hit the tennis ball better, and I know this from much personal experience. But I fail to see how it can help your poker game any more than a very small amount, and is one of the important reasons why I reject what these people advocate.

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 11-16-2016, 03:53 AM   #43
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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The mental coaches that I'm most familiar with, Cardner, Tendler, and Roe, all seem to emphasize stuff that comes from the sports world and should be of help to things like speed, timing, and coordination.
Yeah, I mean this is just lazy critical thinking on the part of the psychologist, and they also know that if they waft a few journal articles in front of their $300 an hour client, they are unlikely to question it further.

With regards to stress, this is only from personal experience. When I final tabled my first six-figure (online) tournament, it was clear that most people froze at the table and were just looking to hang on for as long as possible. I started shoving my chips around and from a lowly chip position finished second. It seemed clear at the time that I adapted to the situation better than my opponents, but i'm not sure this could be attributed to technical knowledge of the game acquired by deliberate practice - i'm pretty sure everyone had read Harrington - but it was a different skill set that was required to act on it.
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Old 11-16-2016, 04:31 PM   #44
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

Mason Malmuth seems to be saying that you could just read the right book and be able to play as good as the top poker players in the world because speed, timing and coordination aren't required. So, it's just a finite amount of information and variance that separates all of us? Is there no emotional component to the game? Is there no discipline required? Sure, you could program a computer and not worry about emotions or discipline, but you can't program a person in the same manner. Maybe it was easier to overcome this side of the game when you could crush draw poker in 1980 after 20 hours of study.
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Old 11-17-2016, 12:46 AM   #45
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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Mason Malmuth seems to be saying that you could just read the right book and be able to play as good as the top poker players in the world because speed, timing and coordination aren't required.
No. I don't say anything like this.

What I do say is that the poker mental coaches that I'm familiar with often go to the sports world and take ideas from there that if successful will help with things like speed, timing, and coordination. They then apply these ideas to poker, which is much more of a knowledge game than an execution game, where they have little if any value.

Quote:
So, it's just a finite amount of information and variance that separates all of us? Is there no emotional component to the game? Is there no discipline required? Sure, you could program a computer and not worry about emotions or discipline, but you can't program a person in the same manner.
I have no problem with what you have stated here.

Quote:
Maybe it was easier to overcome this side of the game when you could crush draw poker in 1980 after 20 hours of study.
When I read posts like yours they'll often point out that I'm a terrible poker player with poor longterm results. At least you say that I can crush draw poker even if those games don't exist anymore.

MM
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Old 11-17-2016, 12:57 PM   #46
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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No. I don't say anything like this.

What I do say is that the poker mental coaches that I'm familiar with often go to the sports world and take ideas from there that if successful will help with things like speed, timing, and coordination. They then apply these ideas to poker, which is much more of a knowledge game than an execution game, where they have little if any value.
Thanks for the clarification.

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Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post

When I read posts like yours they'll often point out that I'm a terrible poker player with poor longterm results. At least you say that I can crush draw poker even if those games don't exist anymore.
I'm just trying to figure out why the game seems so simple to you. Could it be that you learned it so long ago and the competition was light? If it's just about gaining the right amount of information, it's almost like a trivia contest. Do you allow for skill in applying the knowledge? Creativity? These are things that athletes also rely on. Some of the best in sports have the best minds and aren't just relying on speed, timing and coordination as you repeat ad nauseam.

It seems to me you are just trying to tear down these mental coaches without offering much in return. Every time I read one of your posts, they sound way too simplistic. Are there examples of players who have been converted from these coaches to your simplistic approach and flourished?

I wish you the best in selling your book. I'm not buying it though.
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Old 11-17-2016, 07:34 PM   #47
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

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Thanks for the clarification.



I'm just trying to figure out why the game seems so simple to you. Could it be that you learned it so long ago and the competition was light? If it's just about gaining the right amount of information, it's almost like a trivia contest. Do you allow for skill in applying the knowledge? Creativity? These are things that athletes also rely on. Some of the best in sports have the best minds and aren't just relying on speed, timing and coordination as you repeat ad nauseam.

It seems to me you are just trying to tear down these mental coaches without offering much in return. Every time I read one of your posts, they sound way too simplistic. Are there examples of players who have been converted from these coaches to your simplistic approach and flourished?

I wish you the best in selling your book. I'm not buying it though.
You obviously know little about me. I've been involved in the writing and publishing of books about poker/gambling that are quite complex and sophisticated. As for frequently mentioning the idea related to speed, timing, and coordination, that's because it's one of the important areas where these mental coaches who I think have little to offer go wrong. But if you were to read my poker psychology book you'll see that there's a lot more addressed than this one idea, and this includes the knowledge component in athletic sports. And if you were to read something like my Gambling Theory book, you'll see that my approach to much of this stuff is in no way simplistic.

Mason
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:53 PM   #48
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

Poker is a complex game, there is a lot of thinking in poker, still I think is monotone. Chess and bridge for example require more mental challenges. In poker though, it is the gambling component that is exciting. And that encompasses all. Regarding 10000 hours I think is an arbitrarily given number.
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Old 11-18-2016, 01:25 AM   #49
simplegirl
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Join Date: Nov 2016
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

i laugh when people who just won a 6 max sng say they are good at poker
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Old 11-18-2016, 11:49 AM   #50
paulhamr
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Join Date: Jul 2016
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Re: It might take longer than 10 000 hours to become an elite poker player

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
You obviously know little about me. I've been involved in the writing and publishing of books about poker/gambling that are quite complex and sophisticated. As for frequently mentioning the idea related to speed, timing, and coordination, that's because it's one of the important areas where these mental coaches who I think have little to offer go wrong. But if you were to read my poker psychology book you'll see that there's a lot more addressed than this one idea, and this includes the knowledge component in athletic sports. And if you were to read something like my Gambling Theory book, you'll see that my approach to much of this stuff is in no way simplistic.

Mason
You are right. I didn't realize that I was talking to the founder of 2+2 publishing. My apologies and good luck to you.
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