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Old 04-23-2012, 09:16 PM   #1
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Help me handle this heater and inevitable downswing

I'm a microstakes tourney player and I'm on the biggest heater of my life. I've cashed in or won I think 5-6 tourneys in a row. The last one was the biggest...I just finished 7th in a tourney and got $106.

That wouldn't be a lot back when I was low-to-medium stakes, but I went busto and took a long break, easing my way back in with <$5 tourneys, freeroll and SNG's and I'm just crushing them over the last few weeks. That 7th-place tourney I just referenced finished less than half an hour ago. I got up, made and sandwich, and my legs shook the whole time. I've never been on a streak like this and I am not sure of the most optimal way to handle it.

But, I know that even the best tourney players only cash around 15% of the time, so I know this streak is not sustainable. I'm afraid I'll crash harder when that inevitable variance kicks in.

So I thought I'd make this thread. I'd like advice for preparing for the downswing and playing from an optimal mental place while I'm still in the rush.

Thanks in advance.
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Old 04-23-2012, 10:58 PM   #2
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Re: Help me handle this heater and inevitable downswing

sounds like what youre doing is working fine. Id suggest taking a couple shots at bigger tournies though.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:01 AM   #3
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Re: Help me handle this heater and inevitable downswing

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrEleganza View Post
But, I know that even the best tourney players only cash around 15% of the time, so I know this streak is not sustainable. I'm afraid I'll crash harder when that inevitable variance kicks in.
Reading http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy might help

Or put simply: the profit line has no reason to fall harder after a big unsustainable rush; it has no "memory" of what happened before.

Quote:
So I thought I'd make this thread. I'd like advice for preparing for the downswing and playing from an optimal mental place while I'm still in the rush.
Easy: Don't even think of it as profit yet!

Forget about the rush and just concentrate on playing more and finding your longterm winrate/ROI... Then you can tell yourself "if I play X hours, on average, I'll make $Y", etc and rushes/downswings won't bother you so much.

Juk
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:55 AM   #4
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Re: Help me handle this heater and inevitable downswing

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Originally Posted by jukofyork View Post
Reading http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy might help

Or put simply: the profit line has no reason to fall harder after a big unsustainable rush; it has no "memory" of what happened before.



Juk
To clarify, I only meant that the downswing would take a greater emotional toll on me, not that I believe the gambler's fallacy.
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