Quote:
Originally Posted by psithurism
Does positive variance/up swinging ever lead to a reduction in EV? Or is that a fairy tale?
EV is the average gain/loss (or, the equity in a pot) you expect to have based upon the information available. It is independent of variance.
"Positive variance" implies that for a certain time period you are receiving better cards than expected by chance. It is independent from EV.
Consequently, the only way I can see how past variance might change the EV of your future hands is if it affects how your opponents are going to play against you--for example, you might have more
fold equity [FE] if they are resorting to playing fit-or-fold against your bets.