I'm currently using a winrate simulator to try and predict the variance my low winrate brings to my game. However I believe I am using it wrong.

Holdem manager gives me the following stats when filtered to 100NL:
bb/100 = 0.93
EV bb/100 = 0.47
Std Dev bb = 7.34
Hands = 464,000

I plugged these in to the following variance simulator and got the following results:


Clearly I've done something wrong. Somehow I doubt running good will yield a 21.68 bb/100 winrate over half a million hands. I multiplied my std dev bb by 100 so it was within bb/100 units as the calculator asks for.

If I was to leave my std dev at 7.34 I'm given these results after a mere 50K hands which also cannot be correct as I doubt a player with a winrate as poor as my own will only experience 50K breakeven stretches <1% of the time.



What am I doing wrong, how should I go about calculating this?
Thanks

I can probably delete this.

I think multiplying my standard deviation by 10 gives the correct results.

Yes. You want to multiply your variance by 100. Your variance is your SD^2. Then you want to take the square root of the result.

SD/100 = sqrt(100*SD^2) = SD*10

Cool I'm capable of having 500K breakeven streaks

Standard obv