I'm currently using a winrate simulator to try and predict the variance my low winrate brings to my game. However I believe I am using it wrong.
Holdem manager gives me the following stats when filtered to 100NL:
bb/100 = 0.93
EV bb/100 = 0.47
Std Dev bb = 7.34
Hands = 464,000
I plugged these in to the following variance simulator and got the following results:
Clearly I've done something wrong. Somehow I doubt running good will yield a 21.68 bb/100 winrate over half a million hands. I multiplied my std dev bb by 100 so it was within bb/100 units as the calculator asks for.
If I was to leave my std dev at 7.34 I'm given these results after a mere 50K hands which also cannot be correct as I doubt a player with a winrate as poor as my own will only experience 50K breakeven stretches <1% of the time.
What am I doing wrong, how should I go about calculating this?