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 07-22-2012, 10:52 AM #1 old hand     Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Liverpool Posts: 1,581 Winrate Confidence I'm currently using a winrate simulator to try and predict the variance my low winrate brings to my game. However I believe I am using it wrong. Holdem manager gives me the following stats when filtered to 100NL: bb/100 = 0.93 EV bb/100 = 0.47 Std Dev bb = 7.34 Hands = 464,000 I plugged these in to the following variance simulator and got the following results: Clearly I've done something wrong. Somehow I doubt running good will yield a 21.68 bb/100 winrate over half a million hands. I multiplied my std dev bb by 100 so it was within bb/100 units as the calculator asks for. If I was to leave my std dev at 7.34 I'm given these results after a mere 50K hands which also cannot be correct as I doubt a player with a winrate as poor as my own will only experience 50K breakeven stretches <1% of the time. What am I doing wrong, how should I go about calculating this? Thanks
 07-22-2012, 11:06 AM #2 old hand     Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Liverpool Posts: 1,581 Re: Winrate Confidence I can probably delete this. I think multiplying my standard deviation by 10 gives the correct results.
 07-22-2012, 12:19 PM #3 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Psychology Department Posts: 7,426 Re: Winrate Confidence Yes. You want to multiply your variance by 100. Your variance is your SD^2. Then you want to take the square root of the result. SD/100 = sqrt(100*SD^2) = SD*10
 07-22-2012, 12:46 PM #4 old hand     Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Liverpool Posts: 1,581 Re: Winrate Confidence Cool I'm capable of having 500K breakeven streaks
07-28-2012, 08:21 PM   #5
old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Scotland
Posts: 1,498
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Deco354 Cool I'm capable of having 500K breakeven streaks
Standard obv

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