Originally Posted by Sherman
This entire discussion revolves around two different ways of getting a number (call it EV or whatever you want). The numbers are not the same thing. Therefore they cannot be interpreted the same way. What does each one mean?
OK. You say that people want to know if they are playing well or not.
However the EV line cannot show that exactly
. Here's why.
Let's say your opponent shoves preflop and you 100% accurately put him on a range of TT+, AK+. You call with KK, and he shows AA. Whoops?
. Your EV gets recorded as 20% * potsize , when in fact you played well.
I hope it is clear to all that it is far too massive an undertaking for a poker tracker program to try and track what the ranges would of all the opponents at the time in question.
What the EV line does in fact record is how much you would have won if you had been neither lucky nor unlucky w.r.t. cards dealt after you made your final decision on the hand
EDIT: it also does not track luck that happened before your final decision, for example, the case where you bet $80 of your $100 stack preflop with AA, then the opponent calls and flops a set. Undoubtedly you got very unlucky here but it will show up on your EV graph as you playing poorly (if you look at your EV line as showing how well you play -- which I am suggesting you should not treat it that way). I don't see any way the EV line can be reliably made to track the luck factor in this example.
Of course there is the issue that any particular one
dealing of cards is either lucky or unlucky (unless your equity was exactly 50%!), however "expectation" means the average over an extremely long run of repeating the same trial -- or, to put it another way as OP did, how much money your seat would be worth if you were to sell it to someone else at that point in time.
Originally Posted by Karganeth
If you went all in against 32o with AA in a $200 pot (87.214% equity), your hand would be worth 0.87214*$200=$174.428. Imagine if you could sell your seat - once sold, the buyer would win the pot just as you would had you not sold it. If you could sell your seat at the moment there were no more decisions to be made (which in this case coincides with the point you went all in but does not always), it would sell for $174.428.
Here's the scenario that people mistakenly disagree with me on. The scenario: you went all in for $100 with AA on a flop of K
against two players (who both had $200 stacks) who had J
. They both call. The turn is 5
and the player with J:Club:T
bets $100 and the other player folds his cards face up. Now both your cards are turned face up and the only thing left to do is deal the river card. If you could sell your seat, how much would it sell for, keeping in mind your equity in this situation is 88.095%?
In this scenario you were all in on the flop. Therefore the EV should be recorded as your EV as it was on the flop
, i.e. AA v JT v 98 on the KJ2 board. The fact that there was subsequent action is irrelevant as you were already all in, and the main pot is locked. We have made the conscious decision to not try to factor in things like "villain's range", "fold equity", "equity due to one player in the side-pot being forced to fold away his equity in the main pot", and so on, as discussed earlier.
OP seems to be saying that the calculation should be your EV as it was on the turn after another card had been dealt after you had already gone all-in
. This figure would not help you judge whether you had been lucky or unlucky because it also includes the outcome of the turn card being dealt.
To make the example more extreme, let's say you went all in with AA
on an ATT
board, and villains had T9
. The turn is the case T
. The villain with T9
bets and the villain with A4
OP is claiming that our EV should be recorded here as $0 (since we're drawing dead), however I would content that it should be recorded as about 96% * the size of the main pot -- where 96% is the equity of AA v T9 v A4 on the ATT flop.
Finally, I think we can turn to the real original problem. The above scenario quoted by OP is unrealistic as people don't fold face up online. I guess this was just a hypothetical scenario to clarify things before we moved onto the real scenario, so I'll do that now
My reading of OP's original post is that the real problem is when the AA v JT v 98 hand happens, but the 98 player folds face down
We now have no way of calculating our EV as it was on the flop. Hence no calculation should be made.
As in my ATT
example, I would not consider it correct if my EV were recorded in the database as $0, i.e. I did not run bad when the T
came on the turn. I'd want to see a gaping void between the EV line and the earnings like when the case T
That's my 2 cents