Originally Posted by heehaww
Red shows an inconsistency. You either count the $75 in both cases or in neither case. If you don't count it, then folding loses $0, which is better than calling and losing $67. If you count it, folding loses 75 and calling loses 75 plus another 67 for a total of 143. No matter how you slice it, calling is $67 worse than folding.
In the other thread, you're still confused, so I'll explain that post further.
If you're looking at it from the present, folding would lose Hero nothing. If you look at it from the start of the hand, Hero loses $75. Neither perspective is wrong, but consistency (lack of contradictions) is the key, because when comparing EV's you need to compare apples to apples.
The pot is ~160 and Hero's equity is ~20%.
The standard approach is to begin from the present, so once Hero raised 75, that 75 went into the pot and was no longer his. Therefore right now, folding is 0ev.
With that approach, E(call) = .2(310) - .8(150) = -58
But your approach works too if done correctly. You say folding = -75ev, that's fine, but then the equation for E(call) must change: E(call) = .2(235) - .8(225) = -133
(Notice that 133-75 = 58.)
You stand to win 235 instead of 310 because you said 75 is already yours
You stand to lose 225 instead of 150 because you said 75 is yours to lose
. If it's yours to lose when you fold, it's also yours to lose when you call.