What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG? - Gambling and Probability

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What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG?

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03-31-2017 , 07:03 AM

HitNRunSpecialist

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2

There is a prize draw at the local casino every week where the prize draw winner is offered $5,000 cash or the option to pick a mystery bag containing one of the following prizes:

-$2,000 cash;

-$4,000 Non-Negotiable Chips;

-$6,000 Non-Negotiable Chips;

-$8,000 cash; and

-$10,000 cash.

What would you choose and why?

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03-31-2017 , 09:29 AM

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

So the chips cannot be cashed in but must be wagered at a table game? We need to determine their redemption value based on churning them in a negative EV game until they all get replaced by real chips. That's going to be a small fraction of their face value. Once we have that we just average the bags.

If we count them as zero, the 5 bags have a average cash value of $4000.

I take the 5k.

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03-31-2017 , 11:37 AM

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 19,854

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

Half on red, half on black.

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03-31-2017 , 11:39 AM

David Lyons

old hand

Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 1,459

In case anyone is wondering, generally the best way to churn non-negotiable chips is to bet them on single roulette numbers.

Put it all once on single roulette numbers (in double-zero roulette) and your EV is $1,842 in cash chips. The smaller denominations you bet, the lower variance you will get.

Try and convince the house to allow you to bet the non-negotiables on single numbers.

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03-31-2017 , 11:40 AM

David Lyons

old hand

Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 1,459

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

Half on red, half on black.

That is terrible advice, if you are allowed to bet longer odds bets in roulette.

Your EV for this is $947

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03-31-2017 , 12:05 PM

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

Half on red, half on black.

Some casinos won't allow this on the same spin. But if we go with David's number of $947, then the bags have an expected value of $4947 vs the cash $5000. But we also have to consider that the $5K cash has ZERO variance. It's guaranteed. So even if we come up with a wagering scheme that puts the average bag value over $5K, we still might lose all our non-negotiable chips and have nothing.

I take the $5k, all day.

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03-31-2017 , 02:12 PM

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 19,854

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Lyons

That is terrible advice, if you are allowed to bet longer odds bets in roulette.

I was responding to this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

We need to determine their redemption value based on churning them in a negative EV game until they all get replaced by real chips. That's going to be a small fraction of their face value.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

I take the $5k, all day.

I agree. Unless the $5k was a trivial sum to me. Then it's gamble it up.

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04-01-2017 , 01:59 AM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Take the bag. It is significantly higher EV, nearly $6000.

Non-negs are actually very close to the full value of regular chips, depending on how you play them. They should be played at Blackjack according to Wizard of Odds.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/

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04-01-2017 , 12:23 PM

doylebrunson1337

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 562

Losing 3k or winning 1k as I see it.

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04-05-2017 , 10:39 AM

#10

rainmaker1855

adept

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,031

the answer obviously depends on your BR/financial situation - that being said, the best play I see is to take the $5k in cash. If it were in neg chips maybe I'd consider the bag, but all things equal the smart play is cash up front IMO

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