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 03-31-2017, 07:03 AM #1 HitNRunSpecialist stranger   Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2 What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG? There is a prize draw at the local casino every week where the prize draw winner is offered \$5,000 cash or the option to pick a mystery bag containing one of the following prizes: -\$2,000 cash; -\$4,000 Non-Negotiable Chips; -\$6,000 Non-Negotiable Chips; -\$8,000 cash; and -\$10,000 cash. What would you choose and why?
 03-31-2017, 09:29 AM #2 NewOldGuy Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: In the wires Posts: 4,987 Re: What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG? So the chips cannot be cashed in but must be wagered at a table game? We need to determine their redemption value based on churning them in a negative EV game until they all get replaced by real chips. That's going to be a small fraction of their face value. Once we have that we just average the bags. If we count them as zero, the 5 bags have a average cash value of \$4000. I take the 5k.
03-31-2017, 11:37 AM   #3
Didace
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 11,472
Re: What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NewOldGuy So the chips cannot be cashed in but must be wagered at a table game? We need to determine their redemption value based on churning them in a negative EV game until they all get replaced by real chips. That's going to be a small fraction of their face value. Once we have that we just average the bags. If we count them as zero, the 5 bags have a average cash value of \$4000. I take the 5k.
Half on red, half on black.

 03-31-2017, 11:39 AM #4 David Lyons adept     Join Date: May 2003 Location: Welcome to the top of my range Posts: 912 Re: What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG? In case anyone is wondering, generally the best way to churn non-negotiable chips is to bet them on single roulette numbers. Put it all once on single roulette numbers (in double-zero roulette) and your EV is \$1,842 in cash chips. The smaller denominations you bet, the lower variance you will get. Try and convince the house to allow you to bet the non-negotiables on single numbers.
03-31-2017, 11:40 AM   #5
David Lyons

Join Date: May 2003
Location: Welcome to the top of my range
Posts: 912
Re: What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Didace Half on red, half on black.
That is terrible advice, if you are allowed to bet longer odds bets in roulette.

Your EV for this is \$947

03-31-2017, 12:05 PM   #6
NewOldGuy
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: In the wires
Posts: 4,987
Re: What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Didace Half on red, half on black.
Some casinos won't allow this on the same spin. But if we go with David's number of \$947, then the bags have an expected value of \$4947 vs the cash \$5000. But we also have to consider that the \$5K cash has ZERO variance. It's guaranteed. So even if we come up with a wagering scheme that puts the average bag value over \$5K, we still might lose all our non-negotiable chips and have nothing.

I take the \$5k, all day.

03-31-2017, 02:12 PM   #7
Didace
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 11,472
Re: What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by David Lyons That is terrible advice, if you are allowed to bet longer odds bets in roulette.
I was responding to this.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by NewOldGuy We need to determine their redemption value based on churning them in a negative EV game until they all get replaced by real chips. That's going to be a small fraction of their face value.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by NewOldGuy I take the \$5k, all day.
I agree. Unless the \$5k was a trivial sum to me. Then it's gamble it up.

 04-01-2017, 01:59 AM #8 browni3141 old hand   Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: South Florida Posts: 1,274 Re: What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG? Take the bag. It is significantly higher EV, nearly \$6000. Non-negs are actually very close to the full value of regular chips, depending on how you play them. They should be played at Blackjack according to Wizard of Odds. https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
 04-01-2017, 12:23 PM #9 doylebrunson1337 grinder     Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Micros 4-ever Posts: 562 Re: What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG? Losing 3k or winning 1k as I see it.
 04-05-2017, 10:39 AM #10 rainmaker1855 adept     Join Date: Sep 2015 Location: Chicago Posts: 748 Re: What would you choose - THE MONEY OR THE BAG? the answer obviously depends on your BR/financial situation - that being said, the best play I see is to take the \$5k in cash. If it were in neg chips maybe I'd consider the bag, but all things equal the smart play is cash up front IMO

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