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What are the odds of this occurrence? Random cards question What are the odds of this occurrence? Random cards question

06-14-2016 , 02:35 AM
I was setting up decks for a cash game and 3 of the cards were a little bent. I went to a different deck to swap the cards out. What are the odds that the 3 cards would be all next to each other?

Both decks were random.
What are the odds of this occurrence? Random cards question Quote
06-14-2016 , 04:06 AM
You just need two pieces of information. Both are pretty easy to figure out:

(1) How many three card sequences exist in a 52 card deck?

(2) How many different sets of three "slots" exist for the three cards in question to appear in?

Your answer is then the ratio of (1)/(2).

(From your question, I presume that in each case the order of the three cards is irrelevant.)
What are the odds of this occurrence? Random cards question Quote
06-14-2016 , 08:12 PM
If the first card lands on top or bottom of the deck, the second card has 2 positions to give you a gutshot on the third card.
If first card lands one away from an edge, the second card has 2 positions to give a gutshot, and 1 position to give open-ended for the third card.
If first card lands elsewhere, the second card has 2 positions for a gutshot, and 2 for open ended.

Combine all the probabilities and I end up with 0.2262443%
I ran a sim of 20,000,000 trials and got 0.2254%
What are the odds of this occurrence? Random cards question Quote
06-14-2016 , 11:40 PM
Are you asking if say it is As3c7h that you were going to change what is the chance the next deck has right away on the very top these 3 specific cards or that somewhere along that deck as currently ordered that triplet exists in any of the 3!=6 possible orders?
What are the odds of this occurrence? Random cards question Quote
06-15-2016 , 12:15 AM
Interesting. The odds of them all being on top would just be (3/52)(2/51)(1/50) which is 0.004525%
Times 50 possible positions gives 0.2262443%, which is what I got via my other method.
What are the odds of this occurrence? Random cards question Quote
06-15-2016 , 12:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoshi63
Interesting. The odds of them all being on top would just be (3/52)(2/51)(1/50) which is 0.004525%
Times 50 possible positions gives 0.2262443%, which is what I got via my other method.
I didnt want to put numbers into it assuming whosenext was helping OP answer on their own with reasoning but in any case;

Spoiler:
It might seem a bit complex to think about it initially but not really provided you imagine the ways it can happen and recognize they are all equivalent.
So this 50x happens because the chance it is found anywhere is basically the way you can have this happen out of 52 cards which is to take these 3 cards out and and then place the other 52-3=49 cards in any order you want with 1 bin separating the pieces to left and right with respect to the sequence of the 3 ABC say so that it looks like; (the separator defines where the triplet is in the sequence)

X1X2...Xk-ABC-Y1Y2..Ym

With X1,..XK|Y1...Ym now being 50 symbols (49 plus the separator) that you care for the order.

Now obviously there are 50! ways (permutations) to order these 49+1 and 49! ways to order 49 cards ignoring the bin position.

Basically there are 50! ways to order the deck with the triplet in some position intact and 49! ways to order 49 cards to begin with.

So it ought to be 50!/49! possible ways to break the sequence of 49 to left and right pieces with a separator anywhere. Or you can see is as 49! ways to orient the cards and 50 positions you can put in the ABC as triplet from left to right in a line of 49.

Those are all equivalent of course (same probability) and since the first is one of the 52C3 possible first triplets (without care for order), the chance the first triplet is the correct one is 1/52C3=1/22100~0.0045248...%

So the chance the triplet is anywhere in the deck is 50/52C3=0.22624...%


Some may simply instantly see it as 1/52C3 to grab the triplet & 50 places to put it but it needs a bit of justification properly to others.

Last edited by masque de Z; 06-15-2016 at 12:59 AM.
What are the odds of this occurrence? Random cards question Quote

      
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