Quote:
Originally Posted by PayOffWizard1987
So I have ~4% chance of making a backdoor flush?
Is that 4% large enough to alter any of my decisions to continue with some hands. For example could it be more profitable for me to bluff in certain sports where I will win an extra 4% of the time?
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Of course 4% can be large enough to change a decision you make. Sklansky has talked about this in at least one book (but probably numerous books). The one I can remember for sure is Poker, Gaming, and Life book. An essay called "A Note on Extra Outs" or something like that. Adding a backdoor draw to a hand with a pair can be quite valuable.
Actually, now that I stop to take a look, it seems that same essay is in Sklansky's Theory of Poker book (word for word at a quick glance). Small Stakes Hold'em (p. 101) has a section specifically discussing backdoor outs. They suggest that a backdoor draw is worth approximately 1 additional out. So of course adding an extra out can swing a decision.
To be honest, from both your questions posed so far it is pretty obvious you are new to poker (or at least new to thinking about poker mathematically). I would seriously recommend books like Small Stakes Hold'em (it is for limit poker, but very instructive about these basics concepts and question), the first Harrington on Hold'em Book (it is for tournament poker but again, it is extremely instructive about the basics), and then Professional No Limit Hold'em.
You should be able to calculate things like "the probability of making a backdoor draw" with ease to be successful as a poker player. Forking over the money for those books and spending the time and effort to read them will make you a lot more money than they will cost you for sure.