theres a contest with 330 people to pick the outcome of the superbowl. for example patriots 24-21, giants 30-24, whatever. right now the line is patriots -3. what would be the best mathematical outcome to choose? if there is a tie it goes to a random drawing.

Probably sports betting stuff ...

My approach would be:

O/U 55
Patriots -3

Patriots 29-26

Take the more probable scores/points around those lines:

31-28 / 30-27/ 28-24 / ...
Avoiding ties if possible (if you know other scores of competitors).

The following website has all the NFL game outcomes since 1920 and you can sort by frequency:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...ame_scores.cgi

27-24 is the third most common final score (173 games) and is probably the most likely outcome for this game given the spread and o/u. It will probably be one of the more popular guesses in your pool, however. So maybe thought should be given to 31-28 (68 games), 28-24 (65 games), or 30-27 (66 games).

The chops/tie draws make it interesting. That's a big pool and if it's at all competitive you'd think people are going to be all over the common scores. There's good reason for that but calculating how much more likely certain scores are to scoop vs how likely they are to happen is certainly an angle of it.

FWIW it does seem like championship games bring out weird events. I'm not a student of NFL history (or particularly familiar with this game) but just in general. People pull out all the stops (and also sometimes get caught up in the moment/make a big mistake). You could see that blocked extra point or safety or somebody going for two that screws up the traditional numbers. Just in sports in general it seems like that happens in championships.

If it's 330 people who are voluntarily shelling out decent cash I think I'd be tempted to at least think about going for one of those 33-26's or something.

eta - but the answer to your OP is certainly something like 27-24.

i guess im just wondering if its better to pick a score thats a little strange like 31-23 vs a score thats real common like 27-24.

even if only 25 other people pick 27-24 then on top of the chance of that score happening i now need to win a 1/25 shot.

To me it'd be tempting. A score that is 2% to happen but will always scoop is worth just as much as a score that is 20% to happen but rates to be a 10 way draw.

Even without odd numbers if you have a particular lean on the game it might be worth it to just go way north or south on the total or on one side because that'd also probably be less likely to share.

Your geography could come into it as well if it's a geographic type pool (ie if it's ran out of a bar in Boston picking the Giants might have more value than you'd expect).

yea its just random i think. its not my pool someone asked me. i actually picked pats 27-24 as a default just cause idc and its most likely, but i thought after that maybe thered be a score that would give me a better overall chance to win.

what happens if nobody is correct? that should come into play also. If it becomes a 'whoever is closest' then choosing a little further away might get you more lottery tickets for the price of one.

A football game will be played.
The halftime show will be awful.

Didn't take long...