Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > General Gambling > Probability

Notices

Probability Discussions of probability theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-30-2012, 05:46 PM   #1
journeyman
 
bluem3's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Bios
Posts: 371
What are the chances of 2 people flopping a pair on a flop

On a random flop with 4 random players flop comes X X X and let's say I catch a mid pair what are the chances of other 3 players having a higher pair or no pair or the lower pair?
bluem3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-30-2012, 10:25 PM   #2
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RustyBrooks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 14,927
Re: What are the chances of 2 people flopping a pair on a flop

You still haven't figured out that the answer to these questions depends on the range of villains? And the cards on the board? Or do you really literally mean vs 4 totally random hands?
RustyBrooks is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2012, 03:28 AM   #3
journeyman
 
bluem3's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Bios
Posts: 371
Re: What are the chances of 2 people flopping a pair on a flop

you have a good memory lol that was flush and straight, and also everyone said something different. but yeah totally random hands and no history about villains
bluem3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2012, 09:31 AM   #4
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: In the wires
Posts: 2,259
Re: What are the chances of 2 people flopping a pair on a flop

Did you want the chance that at least one of the 3 players has a pair after the flop or that all 3 of them have a pair after the flop?

The chance a player with random hole cards has a pair after the flop is ~53%. This includes any hand with at least one matching rank (pair, trips, 2 pair, full, quads).

1 - (44/47 * 40/46 * 36/45 * 32/44) = 52.6%

We can then approximate the chance at least one of 3 players hits using:
1 - (1-.526)^3 = ~89%
NewOldGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2012, 10:30 PM   #5
journeyman
 
bluem3's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Bios
Posts: 371
Re: What are the chances of 2 people flopping a pair on a flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
Did you want the chance that at least one of the 3 players has a pair after the flop or that all 3 of them have a pair after the flop?

The chance a player with random hole cards has a pair after the flop is ~53%. This includes any hand with at least one matching rank (pair, trips, 2 pair, full, quads).

1 - (44/47 * 40/46 * 36/45 * 32/44) = 52.6%

We can then approximate the chance at least one of 3 players hits using:
1 - (1-.526)^3 = ~89%
how about, after 3 other players seing the flop, but 2 fold to a bet which let's say they didn't have anything on a flop not even a low pair, and it's a heads up me vs other player what are the chances of him only having a top pair? not inluding trips 2 pairs... for example on a flop K Q 2 rainbow and I have AQ and chances of him having anything with K and/or AA? vs a random hand/player
bluem3 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive