variance betting on horse racing question true winrate
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 8
Before each bet we assign a price to each horse so say we price the horse $7 (decimal) and back it at $9 or $2 and back it at $2.50 etc etc, obviously we could be running above EV and below with these bets, my question is how many races would we need to establish our true winrate.
For example you often see poker players talk about crushing the game over 10k hands 100k hands etc which could be just variance, before a more experienced player poster explains a required amount of hands more suitable to judge a players true winrate, so I'm just wondering how would one work out the same with horse racing and how many bets would be required to get a true winrate?
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 223
You may just back test yourself wih real past races, the min. is 2, 000 . Some researchers go 10, 000. It is just like poker, poker is an exampleur gambling game (all the best gamblers are poker player). Also it is best to bet according to rules on horses until you can break the mold and be free, you can use statistics; also because pure random luck is not a factor in horse races win rates are known before hand to a great extent. Perhaps you need to focus on exotic wagers were rules are harder to set and there are many more unkowns.
