Quote:
Originally Posted by BruceZ
The standard deviation of your win RATE (or standard error) is 40/sqrt(10000) = 0.4 BB/100 hands. Your 95% confidence interval is about +/- 1.96 standard deviations, and your 99% confidence interval is about +/- 2.58 standard deviations.
95% interval = 5 +/- 1.96*0.4 =~ 5 +/- 0.78 BB/100.
99% interval = 5 +/- 2.58*0.4 =~ 5 +/- 1.0 BB/100.
Bruce, I believe you meant to say that your standard error is
40/sqrt(100) since your standard deviation per 100 hands is 40BB and that a total of 100*100 = 10,000 hands have been played.
at 95% we have 5 +-1.96*4 BB/100 which is 5 +- 7.84 BB/100
at 99% we have 5+-2.58*4 BB/100 which is 5 +- 10.32 BB/100
Or alternatively,
Your expectation in big blinds and your standard deviation over 10,000 hands is 500BB and 40*sqrt100 respectively.
at 95% we have 500 +- 1.96*400 BB/10,000
at 99% we have 500 +- 2.58*400 BB/10,000
Last edited by BruceZ; 08-16-2008 at 02:05 PM.