I am wondering about this T64

I was reviewing this hand entering theses ranges into pokerstove 1 ply 40%, 2ply 50% 3 ply 13% 4 ply 15% and 5 ply 19%

I have some understanding but can't get fully why 40% hit so well but all other miss. O.o Why 50% miss this one if 40% hit it so often?

My guesses (postulated without doing any of the actual math):

- Both the 40% range and the 50% range are more likely to pair the flop than any of the other tight ranges.

- When both ranges do hit the flop, the 40% range has overall better equity than the 50% range by virtue of being stronger.

Well, one obvious difference is that hands that contain 44 (i.e., the 40% and the 50% hands) are more likely to make a set than the ones that don't. Indeed, the 13% and 15% hands can only make a set with TT. The 19% hand can make a set with TT and 66.

Further, because it is a multiway pot, hands that make big pairs like AA and AK are less likely to win. Another advantage is that the 40% and 50% hands seem to be able to make more straights than the other hands. J7s can make a straight, but JTs cannot. Only the 50% and 40% hands contain a 5, so they are the only ones than can make a straight with a 5 (assuming the 5 comes from their hand). So overall, the 40% and 50% hands have more cards that play well with these three specific cards. The 40% hand does a bit better because the extra 10% of cards the 50% hand has do not help much on this board (if any at all) and thus leave the 50% hand dominated by the 40% hand.

On second look, it looks like you're getting spurious results - probably because you're using PokerStove's 'Enumerate All' option. This gives odd results. I don't know if it is because of a bug in PokerStove, or an artifact of the way the code goes through evaluating each hand in the respective ranges (I'm assuming you stopped the iterations early).

Using Monte Carlo, and about 20 million iterations, I get these results:

ProPokerTools.com roughly confirms (the xx% ranges may not exactly match up with what PokerStove uses):

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: T 6 4

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
40%	16.26%	94,152	6,955
50%	16.20%	94,198	6,217
13%	25.52%	148,360	9,711
15%	22.29%	129,239	9,270
19%	19.73%	114,158	8,677