strike rate run of outs - Gambling and Probability

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strike rate run of outs

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09-30-2016 , 04:55 AM

o t b

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 10

I googled strike rate and run of outs for sports betting and seen this table which is 1000 bets and some others which displayed more bets, but I was interested if this was accurate and who is behind these calculations or is it just simple maths?, I'm a maths noob btw.

This is the online calculator used http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/strikerate.asp

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09-30-2016 , 11:09 AM

whosnext

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 6,733

Yes, the expected longest streak is given by a well-known formula. The formula is an approximation whose accuracy improves as the number of bets increases.

Expected longest losing streak = - ln(N)/ln(1-W)

where N is the total number of bets placed, the prob of winning each bet is W, and ln is the natural logarithm

You can see the formula referenced in various places. Its derivation can be found in academic articles as well.

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09-30-2016 , 06:10 PM

o t b

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 10

thanks

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