Quote:
Originally Posted by VBAces
I think you are focused on the wrong things. The machine you want to play is programmed to pay out 90%, so you will lose 10 cents on every dollar you play. That seems to me to be the thing to focus on.
Ask yourself this question: If, on average, I lose 10 cents on every dollar I play, is it likely I will win in the long run?
None of the rest matters. Machines aren't programmed to hit the jackpot any particular time. They are based on random number generators, and are programmed to pay out at a certain rate. They don't remember if they've paid out a jackpot, they simply keep on spinning and spinning and paying out less than goes in. They don't get "due to pay out big".
And if we forget about that, look at your initial post. You calculated that you could play a machine for 19 hours and hit, even though people have been playing that machine for 7 years and haven't hit. Think about that. Is there any other situation where you would invest in something that has failed to pay off in such a long time?
It has been 7 years and it has not been hit. However, the machine doesn't get played 24/7. Also, it's well known that many people only play 1-2 credits on the machine and not the full 3 credits. I've heard from many it's been hit but only on 1 or 2 credits.
How do we figure out the odds of hitting this jackpot then? With the jackpot this high how can we say the machine is not profitable to play?