thanks for the response! Now im confused, could you please explain me what the difference is between a "rate" and a "probabily"? Can the probability for this never be greater than 1.0 because we can never expect a probability higher than 99.9% that a goal will be scored in the first half, even if in the previous 5 matches, team A scored 5 million goals?
To be honest, I dont think that goals distribute the same as poisson, but maybe I missunderstand what statmanhal is saying. Team A or B probably scored their goals against teams with a weaker defense rather than against teams with a stronger defense so most likely they werent evenly distributed but I dont want to take that into account. So I'd rather assume an average distribution.
The reason Im asking this is because I was looking at the odds of a sportsbetting event. Team A is playing Team B and the bookie is laying odds of 2.8 for a bet that no goals will be scored in the first half of the game. So if I put my money on that bet that there will be no goal in the first in 35.7% or higher, I will make profit. So im trying to calculate how likely it is based on both teams record over their previous 7 matches. Maybe thats a nonsense approach anyway. How would you guys approach this problem?
guys, please help me understand this, I feel stupid right now
Last edited by Acryl2; 10-22-2016 at 09:54 AM.