So basically my question is can you run above EV playing poorly

From another thread

So according to this ^ you can run above EV playing poorly. I read somewhere where someone mentioned it all evens out though over a large sample of hands, is this correct?

but what if a players style is like the above examples where he is putting his money in good, but just getting sucked out on on the river etc.

If two players get it all in preflop with AA vs KK for a $1000 pot, and for simplicity let's say that AA is 80% favorite over KK. Then the AA player's AIEV is $800 and the KK player's AIEV is $200.

In the actual game, one of these players (barring a split pot) will win the entire $1000 pot. Suppose AA wins the pot. Then AA player's differential between his actual winnings and AIEV will be $1000 - $800 = $200 which is a measure of how lucky he was on the hand (using this measure).

Statistically speaking, these things tend to even out over the long term, but the long term is very long in poker. So each player's differential will tend to zero since if they played AA vs KK in a hundred pots, AA would win around 80 pots and KK would win around 20 pots.

As far as I can tell, the differential between actual winnings and AIEV is not related at all to how well or poorly a player is playing. It is purely a measure of how lucky your boards have run out after you got it all-in.

Hope that helps.

In this example say No Limit hu 100

Say 80% of the money goes in by the turn and river completes a straight for villain and the remaining $20 is bet by villain and Hero obviously calls

So Hero will be minus $100 on the graph and the EV line will say the same minus 100, but he was ahead preflop flop and turn but just got sucked out on otr for remaining $20 which he had to call given money in the pot. So it will look like villain played this hand perfectly according to the ev line, but had he not sucked out on the river he would have been down $80 total.

As I understand it, for obvious reasons, EV is only calculated (or routinely only calculated) at the point both players are all in and there are more board cards to come. In your example above, no further board cards come, so EV (AIEV) is not calculated for this hand.

Of course, your general point is correct. And that is why EV (AIEV) is an imperfect measure of anything.

What do you mean by > > (AIEV) is not calculated for this hand?

Say this was the first hand and only hand in the database, wont the graph show Hero down $100 and the EV line will be at minus $100 also? So Hero is not running above or below EV in this example.

Yes, I think we are saying the same thing. Most software programs assign the actual pot value to EV when the player is not all-in with additional board cards to come.

Not sure what your point is.

EV variance is always set to zero when the hand did not go all in with cards to come (meaning EV is set equal to the actual result).

It's not a useful tool for a player and is totally a distraction because of widespread misunderstanding of what it represents.

Just to understand this correctly

So basically if we get our money in good preflop flop and turn and villains sucks out on us on the river like the example i posted in previous post and we call because were pot committed -- and say 5 hands in a row at NL100, our graph will show minus $500 as will our EV line also minus $500?

So hero will basically look like he is playing poorly becase his winning and EV line are equal minus $500 -- while villain who sucked out all 5 hands on the river will look like he is playing well given his winning are plus $500, as is his EV line also plus $500.

is this correct?

The EV graph has nothing to do with playing poorly or not. It measures the luck of the draw on all-in hands. For those hands the EV line shows your pot equity in $ at the time the money went in.

For other hands it measures nothing and simply shows your actual result.

I was just trying to figure out if i understood the EV graph correctly with that example of 5 buy ins in my previous post?

This is only true if you are looking at it on a percentage basis. It absolute terms it is very unlikely to "even out".

You correctly described what will show but your interpretation is wrong. Getting sucked out on at the river doesn't indicate playing poorly. A negative EV graph doesn't indicate playing poorly. It has nothing to do with the quality of play. It's simply a statistic on how lucky or unlucky you were on all-in hands. For hands that were not all-in before the river it doesn't tell you anything. Like your example.

Yes i totally understand that the EV line has nothing to do with how a player is playing.

Sry English is not my first language, so sometimes i explain thing incorrectly to what i am really trying to get across, but what i was trying to work out is if i had the poker graph right, and you explained i did, so much appreciate your efforts explaining, thank you.

Is this true?

I thought all in EV is EV on an all in bet prior to the river. Equity * Total Pot is not EV. The all in bet size (the investment) has to be subtracted out. This is easily confirmed since Equity * Pot can never be negative and we know that EV can be negative. The key metric as used by HEM and PT is EV $ Diff (the luck metric) which is Gross Amount Won - Equity*Total Pot. This is equivalent to Net Amount Won - AIEV; i.e., the last bet size is subtracted out of each term.

The calculations HEM and PT use are correct for what they are purporting to show but their explanations and terminolgy is not very good IMO.

yes, you are undoubtedly correct. the way the software companies have explained things has confused the issue.