Risk of losing money after x times of a certain event.
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 197
In this video it says that the probability of losing money after 50 coin tosses getting 2-1 is 1/2300. What is the formula for getting that result?
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 197
Also how can you calculate within what ranges the result with be with some confidence interval? Thanks
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 6,729
The 1/2300 figure comes from 100 coin flips (not 50). This is the prob of getting between 0 and 33 (inclusive) successes out of 100 50% coin flips.
Of course, getting 2:1 on your money means that you'll lose money whenever you get between 0 and 33 successes out of 100 flips.
You should look up the binomial distribution. It is very well known.
And the confidence intervals of the binomial distribution are well known too. Just search for that.
Join Date: Jan 2014
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Join Date: Mar 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by indio
Or just use the function built in to excel.
