Bowl Poll question - Gambling and Probability

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Bowl Poll question

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01-03-2018 , 11:25 PM

ugotzo

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 4

I'm second place, only 2 of us have a chance to win...The only way for me to win is obv to pick the opposite side of him (no totals, just point spread)...So basically my odds are 3 to 1 and I should take any deal better than 25% of the pot?

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01-04-2018 , 01:42 AM

ugotzo

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 4

Anyone? Bueller?

Also, ov there is no way to know which side the guy ahead of me is going to pick.

Last edited by ugotzo; 01-04-2018 at 02:10 AM.

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01-04-2018 , 06:12 PM

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

Yeah, basically. It can get a bit more complicated if the spread you're picking against is well off the actual spread, but for your purposes, just snap-take 25%+ if you don't think you can predict the guy at all. (assuming the pot is 100% to first of course)

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01-04-2018 , 09:47 PM

ugotzo

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 4

ya I'm assuming an accurate point spread and no idea at all who the guy is going to take...But I was wondering if it was like more complicated since it's like two sets of expected values (for lack of better turn) ie, it doesn't matter if you're right or wrong, I don't even get to that point if we pick the same side.

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01-05-2018 , 02:54 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

It’s not more complicated in the case where the spread is correct and your opponent is picking randomly, and winner takes all. You can make it more complicated if you want, such as if you both know the spread is off or if only you do and your opponent is going to use a suboptimal strategy.

Can you explain the rules? I’m pretty sure I’ve pieced it together, but I’m not familiar with this game.

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01-05-2018 , 06:05 PM

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,075

If the favorite covers x percent, and doesn't the remaining y percent, the player in the lead has a simple optimum mixed strategy that can be deduced with almost no math.

(By the way this isn't a purely hypothetical question. Many contests require you only to pick the winner without points. If the guy in the lead automatically picks the three point favorite the other guy can exploit this and be well over 25%.)

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01-05-2018 , 10:32 PM

ugotzo

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 4

assume the spread is correct, neither of us know each other's pick...I can't win unless I make a different pick than him.

we both have winner = he wins
we both have loser = he wins
he has winner/i have loser = he wins
i have winner/he has loser = i win

Also, Since the line is a whole number...4

If game lands on 4...he wins no matter what.

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01-06-2018 , 05:25 PM

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,075

I was straying from the original question and a was asking what the GTO strategy for the leader should be if there was no tie possible and the chances of a team winning is known.

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01-07-2018 , 04:43 PM

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,075

Since no one seems to want to answer my question I will go ahead and just tell you that the guy in the lead should select the team that has an x% chance x% of the time. Do you see why?

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