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07-15-2012, 08:39 PM   #106
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 14,936
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by nikolai james Taking a bet from you folks is like willfully entering a den of sharks.
I don't know what you mean? After all here, you must be the one with the advantage. I'm willing to believe that flipping heads is 50% every day, wheras you know which days it's more than that, and which days it's less (right?). So you should be able to clean my clock with no problem. Even if the effect is very small (like maybe it's 51% instead of 50%) we can come up with the right number of trials such that the person with superior information will win.

We can do any kind of purely random thing you want - slot machines, roulette, dice, sports betting, whatever. It just has to be something where it's possible for me, as a person deluded into thinking that I know how random processes work, to figure out what the chances of the events happening purely randomly is.

Then all you have to do is pick in a way that beats that random chance over a long stretch by a significant margin.

You can pick, whatever purely random thing you want is fine by me.

07-15-2012, 09:00 PM   #107
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,896
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by nikolai james Bruce Z's ignorance was demonstrated when he said there was no cross and Otatop's ignorance was also demonstrated when he said there was no cross on Tuesday morning. There is a grand cross of Uranus, Pluto, Mars and the moon. Of course these two posters (especially Bruce Z) are willing to pontificate about something that they know nothing about. So what is the meaning of "skeptical": closed-minded, ignorant, rigid in one's thinking, arrogantly "knowing" without experience or does it have a more positive meaning?"
Yeah, annoy me, the guy who's been cutting you all the slack so that you can stay here despite your spam and your nonsense. You're a sharp one, aren't you? Now you're banned permanently. I'd remove this whole thread, but others seem to find it amusing.

And the moon and Pluto aren't planets you stupid dumbass.

Last edited by BruceZ; 07-15-2012 at 09:14 PM.

 07-15-2012, 09:47 PM #108 Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 5,133 Re: "Random distribution" I tried to demonstrate my ignorance several times in this thread, and yet I got no credit for it. I will no longer buy his ebook on how Neptune will help him lose money in slots on Wednesdays when it is sunny.
 07-15-2012, 10:17 PM #109 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 7,384 Re: "Random distribution" I'll admit that I was being ignorant, because according to astrological charts there is indeed a square of the "planets" Pluto, the moon, Uranus, and Mars. Silly me was looking at where those objects actually are in space instead of a bunch of silly nonsense.
 07-15-2012, 10:44 PM #110 veteran   Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: In the wires Posts: 2,269 Re: "Random distribution" More like an almost-trapezoid, and that's a stretch.
 07-16-2012, 07:37 PM #111 centurion   Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 104 Re: "Random distribution" aw, this could have been a cool topic about random point processes or bayesian inference. well at least i learned that pluto is a "dwarf planet."
07-16-2012, 09:36 PM   #112

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Nova
Posts: 734
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
 Taking a bet from you folks is like willfully entering a den of sharks.
So he admits he's the fish? And that his powers of astrology are inferior to our powers of reasoning? Damn, I wish I didn't already order 5 copies of his book.

07-17-2012, 01:19 AM   #113

Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 9,899
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
 Originally Posted by nikolai james Gambling actually is the best place to use astrology, particularly with slots. It is just your astrology and the machines payback.
Does astrology predict that a slot machine will be positive EV regardless of how it is set initially? Or does it simply predict that the player's EV will be increased by a decent amount? In other words if a machine that usually pays back 96% can be expected under these ideal planetary circumstances to pay back 104%, does that mean that a 90% machine will pay back 98%? Or will it be affected to a greater degree than the first machine so that it too gives the player the edge?

I think you understand why I need this aspect of your theory to be explained further before I spend too much time evaluating it and/or recommending it.

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