Originally Posted by nikolai james
Taking a bet from you folks is like willfully entering a den of sharks.
I don't know what you mean? After all here, you must be the one with the advantage. I'm willing to believe that flipping heads is 50% every day, wheras you know which days it's more than that, and which days it's less (right?). So you should be able to clean my clock with no problem. Even if the effect is very small (like maybe it's 51% instead of 50%) we can come up with the right number of trials such that the person with superior information will win.
We can do any kind of purely random thing you want - slot machines, roulette, dice, sports betting, whatever. It just has to be something where it's possible for me, as a person deluded into thinking that I know how random processes work, to figure out what the chances of the events happening purely randomly is.
Then all you have to do is pick in a way that beats that random chance over a long stretch by a significant margin.
You can pick, whatever purely random thing you want is fine by me.