Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > General Gambling > Probability

Notices

Probability Discussions of probability theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-24-2012, 09:40 AM   #16
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 12
Re: "Random distribution"

You are right there are no clear scientific causal mechanisms that can be determined. However, there are so many functions in the human body's healing mechanisms where there are gaps in the scientific understanding of why healing occurs, or there are severe gaps in our understanding of the chain of processes of healing. Theory fills in the gaps. If you have read much in science you know that there are many things that are unexplainable.
nikolai james is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2012, 09:40 AM   #17
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,130
Re: "Random distribution"

His scientific evidence will likely be claiming his predictions were correct on the forums where they were correct. Those will be the places he really tries to push his little book after, using standard vague babblespeak. He probably believes himself for what it is worth which can help with the con.

This guy reminds me of the spam affiliates back in the day.
Monteroy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2012, 10:09 AM   #18
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 12
Re: "Random distribution"

Here's a question: What is the causal mechanism behind luck? Why does luck vary? What accounts for extreme periods of poor luck or good luck? Randomness is not a causal mechanism.
nikolai james is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2012, 10:25 AM   #19
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,130
Re: "Random distribution"

Why is green better for left handed people? What really is up and down?

Anyone can speak babble if they really want, but a few like you waste time and create a book that does not sell and spam it on a ton of forums for no gain.

200,000th on Kindle - that equal zero sales? Guess they can only go up!

Keep up the great work, and remember your accomplishments are hardly random - they are directly related to you.

All the best.
Monteroy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2012, 01:03 PM   #20
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BruceZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,889
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherman View Post
I cannot vouch for your statements about the history of thinking about weather, but I can say that there is an important difference between weather and astrology: We have identified causal mechanisms for weather. That is, there may be associations between pressure systems and weather just as there may be associations between the planetary alignments and luck. But the causal mechanisms (i.e. the process) between pressure systems and weather has been demonstrated effectively. What is the causal process between planetary alignment and luck? I'm sure your book talks about one, but what is the scientific evidence (i.e. peer reviewed, published work)?
There doesn't need to be a causal connection; there just needs to be an exploitable correlation.

This paper won a Market Technicians Association Dow Award for best technical analysis paper in 1998 by demonstrating a correlation between lunar cycles and stock market panics. Other calendar phenomena are thought to be caused by tax and accounting transactions. wiki

Last edited by BruceZ; 06-24-2012 at 03:23 PM.
BruceZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2012, 03:16 PM   #21
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Sherman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Psychology Department
Posts: 7,422
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
Originally Posted by BruceZ View Post
There doesn't need to be a causal connection; there just needs to be an exploitable correlation. This paper won a Market Technicians Association Dow Award for best technical analysis paper in 1998 by demonstrating a correlation between lunar cycles and stock market panics. Other calendar phenomena are thought to be caused by tax and accounting transactions. wiki
Sorry. I don't buy it. And I don't think you do either. Are you just a willing to make an investment based on correlational information (as gleaned by technical analysis) as you are causal information as gleaned by theory and well designed experimentation?
Sherman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2012, 11:43 PM   #22
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 12
Re: "Random distribution"

This method has been verified through thousands of hands of poker and now through hours on slots either online or in casinos. I changed to slots because I was the able to eliminate the confounding factors in poker of my skill (or lack of it) and the other confounding factor of the luck and skill of the other poker players at the table. Slots also offer the opportunity to bet fast during small periods of luck that are determined for me by planetary aspects of shorter duration. Some machines offer the added feature of allowing you to increase your bet when the luck starts kicking in.
nikolai james is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2012, 12:05 AM   #23
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: In the wires
Posts: 2,257
Re: "Random distribution"

Not bad for a gimmick shill selling an ebook. It's a creative scam anyway.

But not very profitable.
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #228,677
That means it sells less than 5 copies per week, maybe as low as 1/wk. Better pick up your game if you want to eat.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 06-25-2012 at 12:32 AM.
NewOldGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2012, 05:21 AM   #24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BruceZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,889
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolai james View Post
This method has been verified through thousands of hands of poker and now through hours on slots either online or in casinos. I changed to slots because I was the able to eliminate the confounding factors in poker of my skill (or lack of it) and the other confounding factor of the luck and skill of the other poker players at the table. Slots also offer the opportunity to bet fast during small periods of luck that are determined for me by planetary aspects of shorter duration. Some machines offer the added feature of allowing you to increase your bet when the luck starts kicking in.
Slot machines use pseudo random numbers. They are generated by a fixed mathematical algorithm and change hundreds or thousands of times per second. The result that you get is determined by the fraction of a second that you happen to pull the lever, not by any planetary aspect. Even if the random number generated were somehow determined by planetary alignment, the relationship between the random number and your results is still determined by a man made algorithm. The planetary alignment would have to do more than just determine randomness. It would have to take the man made algorithm into account in order to ensure that you get a "good" result rather than a "bad" result. Change the man made algorithm, and the exact same planetary alignment will generate a different result.

I'm beginning to lose confidence that this is a solid system.
BruceZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2012, 11:18 AM   #25
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RustyBrooks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 14,920
Re: "Random distribution"

No, no, see, it changes the distribution of the luck.
RustyBrooks is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2012, 11:41 AM   #26
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,130
Re: "Random distribution"

If he is lucky then all of his spamming various forums will double his slots/luck/aliens theory e-book sales to 2 a week, netting him a cool few pennies per hour work spamming (ignoring the time he wasted creating that book).

I do hope he is serious about playing the slots, and I encourage him to borrow money to play the highest stakes possible when the luck mystical whatever is perfect for him.
Monteroy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2012, 01:00 PM   #27
veteran
 
Didace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,690
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
Originally Posted by BruceZ View Post
Slot machines use pseudo random numbers. They are generated by a fixed mathematical algorithm and change hundreds or thousands of times per second. The result that you get is determined by the fraction of a second that you happen to pull the lever, not by any planetary aspect.
But don't the planets and stars help determine exactly when I pull the lever? Expand your mind if you want to reach truth.
Didace is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2012, 01:20 PM   #28
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: In the wires
Posts: 2,257
Re: "Random distribution"

NewOldGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2012, 02:18 PM   #29
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BruceZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,889
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace View Post
But don't the planets and stars help determine exactly when I pull the lever?
Even if it did, whether a pull at a particular moment is good or bad for you will depend on the workings of the machine.
BruceZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2012, 02:25 PM   #30
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RustyBrooks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 14,920
Re: "Random distribution"

Quote:
Originally Posted by BruceZ View Post
Even if it did, whether a pull at a particular moment is good or bad for you will depend on the workings of the machine.
When the planets are properly aligned, you'll experience more of the good random numbers. It's hard to describe them but you can tell them when you see them. For example, I'm sure you'll agree:

17: bad random number
221: good random number

So, it's like this. Generate some random numbers, and mark them as good or bad. Do this over long periods of time and correlate with astronomical events. It will pop right out at you. It's really so obvious once you see it.

For more info, send one dollar to Happy Dude, 742 Evergreen Terrace, Springfield. Don't delay!
RustyBrooks is online now   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:54 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive