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 06-22-2012, 04:01 PM #1 enthusiast   Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 65 Probability of various flop TYPES occurring? I'm trying to determine the probability of relevant flop types. I have classified flops into the following 6 categories (the number of relevant different flops is listed also) trips: 13 paired, rainbow: 156 paired, 2 flush: 156 unpaired, rainbow: 286 unpaired, 2 flush: 858 unpaired, monotone: 286 1,755 relevant flops Not sure if relevant is the correct term, but what I mean is that the paired rainbow flop of AAK is no different contextually than AAK What I'm trying to do is to adjust my numbers to account for the multiple contextually same flops to account for the total of 22,100 flops.
 06-22-2012, 04:36 PM #2 Actually Shows Proof     Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: This looks interesting. Posts: 7,902 Re: Probability of various flop TYPES occurring? This may help. http://www.spadebidder.com/flop-analysis/part4/ The calculations shown use permutations for simplicity, but just divide by 6 for the number of combos (each of the 22100 flops has 6 permutations, or possible orderings). All of your numbers shown are too low for the combo counts. For example, with triplet flops you have 13 ranks times 4 ways to combine suits = 52 combos. Then 52/22100 is your probability for a triplet flop. Last edited by spadebidder; 06-22-2012 at 04:53 PM.
06-22-2012, 04:42 PM   #3
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Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 65
Re: Probability of various flop TYPES occurring?

Quote:
That's just what I was looking for. Thanks!

 06-22-2012, 04:46 PM #4 veteran   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,343 Re: Probability of various flop TYPES occurring? This is a little more direct answer than Spadebidder's response {Spade - where you been?} Trips: C(4,1) = 4 ways per trip (the 4 possible suits) Paired, rainbow: C(4,2)*2 = 12 (AcAd 4s, AcAd 4h etc.) Paired; two flush: C(4,2)*2 = 12 (AcAd 4c, AcAd 4d, etc.) Unpaired, rainbow: 4*3*2 = 24 (AcKdQs, AcKdQh, etc.) Unpaired, two flush: C(4,1)*3 = 12 (AcKcQd, AcKcQh, etc.) Unpaired, monotone: C(4,1) =4 (AcKcQc, AdKdQd, etc.) Multiplying these results by the quantities you showed totals to 22,100.
06-22-2012, 05:32 PM   #5
Actually Shows Proof

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Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,902
Re: Probability of various flop TYPES occurring?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by statmanhal Trips: C(4,1) = 4 ways per trip (the 4 possible suits)
You meant C(4,3).
Same value, but it's the correct representation for choosing 3 of 4 suits to make a trips.

Quote:
Lurking.

06-22-2012, 08:41 PM   #6
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Posts: 2,343
Re: Probability of various flop TYPES occurring?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by spadebidder You meant C(4,3). Same value, but it's the correct representation for choosing 3 of 4 suits to make a trips. .
Yeah, but in defense of my way, C(4,1) is the number of ways to choose the suit that is not in the trips - so the right result was not totally fortuitous .

 06-24-2012, 11:12 AM #7 grinder     Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 595 Re: Probability of various flop TYPES occurring? Maybe OP is interested in this http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...6&postcount=31 which is based on spadebidder's flop categories and how "stable" they are, i.e., count how often a hand with >= 50% equity on the flop loses the hand by the river for each flop category.

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