Any of you math mathicians can figure this out?
What is the probability of getting dealt a 7 card straight flush in Pai Gow poker without the joker?

A progressive game that has a big jackpot for it, when does it become +EV at $5 ante every hand for progressive bonus alone?


Can someone compute this up?

If I understand Pai Gow correctly, the chance is the same as that of getting a 7 card straight flush in hold'em or stud. edit: not quite the same because 53-card deck.

There are 9 possible ones to make in 4 suits.

9 * 4 / C(53,7) = 1 in 4,281,752 (rounded)

There are 8 possible seven card straights; A 2 3…7, 2 3 4…8, . . . 8 9 T … A. For each of these there are 4 possible straight flushes for a total of 4*8 = 32 seven card straight flushes. Assuming 1 joker in the deck, there are C(53,7) = 154,143,080 possible deals. Therefore the probability of being dealt a 7 card straight flush is 32/154m or about once every 4.8 million hands. You might try persuading the casino to make it just any straight – then that will happen once every 9,400 hands .

I don’t know enough about progressive games and bonuses to answer the next question but I suspect the answer from a practical point of view is to never play for the jackpot alone. It’s like a lottery prize that has grown so big it’s plus EV to play it but aside from the exciting thought of possibly winning hundreds of millions of dollars with a relatively small investment, you are really throwing the investment away betting on a once in a many million chance of winning. But, the exciting thought may be worth it to you.

Edit: Just saw heehaw answer. How did he get nine straights?

Because I'm a dingus

How about being able to use the joker for that 7 card str8 flush?