Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Probability Discussions of probability theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-22-2017, 09:06 AM   #1
Lampinjon
stranger
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 2
Probability calculation in a simple game

Hi guys!

I know it's poker forum but still I hope someone will help me with a probability calculation in a simple game:



What are the chances that a ball fall to a box on the bottom marked from A to R?
How many combinations there is?

Ball is dropped from the top and each step have 50% chance to go to left or right

Example for two balls with same result:
Lampinjon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2017, 12:48 PM   #2
statmanhal
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 3,841
Re: Probability calculation in a simple game

Look up Pascal's triangle.
statmanhal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2017, 02:10 AM   #3
Lampinjon
stranger
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 2
Re: Probability calculation in a simple game

Thank's for tip

So this is exactly the same as my picture above:



If I get it right...the number of all combinations is to sum lowest line (1+16+120+560...)= 65536 total combinations

For a ball fall into the middle line (12870) it has 19,63806% chance or 1:5.09215
Is this correct?
Lampinjon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-23-2017, 01:27 PM   #4
statmanhal
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 3,841
Re: Probability calculation in a simple game

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lampinjon View Post


1) If I get it right...the number of all combinations is to sum lowest line (1+16+120+560...)= 65536 total combinations

2) For a ball fall into the middle line (12870) it has 19,63806% chance or 1:5.09215
Is this correct?
Yes but instead of creating a triangle,

1) The sum of row n is 2^n, the total number of combinations of n trials with 50/50 occurrence of yes-no, heads-tails, left-right, etc.

2) This can be gotten directly using the binomial distribution.
statmanhal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2017, 09:49 AM   #5
heehaww
Pooh-Bah
 
heehaww's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: It was an attractive goat in AR
Posts: 4,108
Re: Probability calculation in a simple game

Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal View Post
2) This can be gotten directly using the binomial distribution.
And since these are 50/50 events, that amounts to using combinations.

combin(n, r) / 2^n

How many ways are there to pick 8 objects from a set of 16?
heehaww is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-26-2017, 10:43 PM   #6
akkopower1
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 63
Re: Probability calculation in a simple game

Thats a Galton box.

The probability of landing in the kth box follows a binomial probability mass function.
akkopower1 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:19 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.33 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online