I am referring to the calculator on Poker Dope webpage.

My stats:
- I am playing around 50k hands/month (this is stable since I am Platinum level and am maintaining it while going for Supernova)
- WR is positive, concrete figure is not important methodology-wise since the same issue always comes up
- Standard deviation 78 bb/100

The calculator produces a table Downswing extents / downswing stretches.
I have at least 1 big downswing per month, average size is 1662 bb.

I have put in my numbers (WR, standard deviation) and looked at them month-per-month.

It comes out that probability of having downswings that I did have last 7 months is around 1% if I multiply probabilities that I should have had these downswings.

Questions:
1) Is it theoretically incorrect to take monthly (or yearly) chunks of data and look them up in the table?
2) If incorrect, what would be a correct way to see if my data differs from expectation?

more likely your variance is higher than you think or your WR is lower than you think or both

Yeah I thought of that (WR is an approximation) but methodologically if a WR is positive (which is reasonable to assume given the results) I should still get a number that is below 100% so it always seems I get too many downswings.

So maybe I am doing it wrong?