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veteran
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 2,263
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Re: Phase 10 odds
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm assuming you got dealt a natural 10 card straight. The math with wilds would be a lot more difficult.
For a natural 10-card straight, we have 3 rank sequences possible: 1-10, 2-11, and 3-12. For each rank there are 8 possible cards so this leads to 8^10 = 1,073,741,824 combinations for any given rank sequence. These also include straight flushes.
So for the 3 rank sequences possible there are 3*1,073,741,824 = 3,221,225,472 combinations.
The number of combinations that exist from the deck of 108 cards:
C(108,10) = 108!/98!/10! = 38,722,819,230,810
So the probability of a natural straight (or straight flush) is:
3,221,225,472/38,722,819,230,810 =~ 1 in 12,021
If we want to exclude the straight flushes, we need to subtract 4*2^10 from the 8^10 term since there are 2 cards of each rank in each of the 4 suits. So the number of combinations of a straight only is:
3*(8^10-4*2^10) = 3,221,213,184
Probability:
3,221,213,184/38,722,819,230,810 =~ 1 in 12,021
As we can see, ignoring straight flushes does very little because a 10 card straight flush would be:
4*2^10*3 = 12,288 combos
Probability:
12,288/38,722,819,230,810 =~ 1 in 3.15 billion
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