I posted this Open Face Chinese Pineapple question over in the 'draw and other poker' section but it isn't getting any responses, so I'll post it here.

I've come into this situation a lot near the end of the hand... a standard situation would be when I have QQ up top, small 2p in the middle, and am trying to qualify in the back with a hand like JJ7xx. on the 2nd to last draw I don't improve, so now I need to decide something important; do I play one of my live cards in the back to leave myself 1 spot open, or do I fill up the empty irrelevant spots in the middle/top and leave myself 2 open spots in the back to make a pocket pair?

It basically comes down to - am I more likely to hit my newly acquired 3 out draw, or to be dealt any pocket pair to improve in the back. Assuming a normal distribution of cards on the table/cards known, and that my kicker in question is completely live (3 outs) I would assume that I am still more likely to be dealt a pocket pair than the 3 outer, therefore the correct play would be to leave 2 spots open in the back. Does anybody have the math for this?

Thanks

No especially if you play HU. 3 outer is much better.

the rule of thumb in endgame is if you have a 3-outer you should use it, while 2-outer and dealt pair is very close so you would need to look at additional information to make a correct decision

we have QQ
4455
JJ7


opponent's hand will matter as well. but let's ignore it for the moment. we know 9 cards. that is 43 remaining.

we get a 6. 42 remaining.

right now we have 5 outs (JJ777). if we fill we will have 8 outs twice. if we don't fill we will have 5 outs and then 8 twice. i think to put it in the back is better.

this must be the third last draw. if it is the second last draw, then you have no choices.