In a full ring game of hold em does anyone know what the odds are that someone will hold a bigger flush than you when you have a Jack or Ten high flush. Is it likely or an uncommon occurrence?
I’m not sure what Didace is trying to point out but the OP question is somewhat vague. What point in the hand is assumed? How many opponents are still in? What are their ranges? What is the board?
Even if you know all these, calculating the answer for more than one opponent is not easy. However, with a simulation program it is easy. Here is but one case to show that it is not too often one gets out-flushed with a jack high flush.
Situation: River
Number of opponents: 2 Opponent Range: Each playing top 25%
Hero hand: Jd 8d
Board: Qc 5d 2d Jc 6d
Probability at least one opponent has a higher flush: 3.6%
For a ten high flush, the probability increases to 4.4%.
Naturally the probabilities depend heavily on the inputs.
The result for the example I used can actually be gotten using Equilab since only a higher flush can beat hero's jack high. The result was about 10.1%, higher than I showed. I rechecked the simulation and must have made an input mistake for now I get about 9.8%. The difference is undoubtedly in how the top 25% is defined for Equilab has more high suited cards than my top 25%. Anyway, the chance of a higher ten or jack flush is relatively small for the example used.
Last edited by statmanhal; 07-29-2017 at 03:24 PM.