Odds of losing AA all in pre last 3 times - Gambling and Probability

Two Plus Two Forums Other Topics Probability

Odds of losing AA all in pre last 3 times

Post Reply Subscribe

...

12-04-2014 , 04:42 AM

redrex003

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 179

Lost with AA all in pre heads up 3 times tonight, whats the odds of that happening.

Quote

12-04-2014 , 06:06 AM

David Lyons

old hand

Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 1,459

Depends how loose you play, and how deep you play.

If you always shortstack, and shove very loose, then you are liable to get 3-4 callers every time you have Aces. The odds of losing to one of those hands is about 50%.

Quote

12-04-2014 , 06:36 AM

redrex003

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 179

Each time was all in preflop and against one person. Meaning 80% equity everytime was wondering what the odds were of me losing all 3 times that happened to me today though.

Quote

12-04-2014 , 02:33 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,986

Using an average lose probability of 20% against one villain, the chance of losing 3 AA hands out of 3 is 0.20^3 = 0.8% for odds against of about 125 to 1.

With millions of hands played each day this will not be that rare but the fact that it happened to YOU makes it special.

Quote

12-05-2014 , 02:55 PM

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,075

Quote:

Originally Posted by redrex003

Each time was all in preflop and against one person. Meaning 80% equity everytime was wondering what the odds were of me losing all 3 times that happened to me today though.

If you don't learn how to do this yourself, you won't need bad luck to lose.

Quote

12-05-2014 , 10:02 PM

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 19,865

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

Using an average lose probability of 20% against one villain, the chance of losing 3 AA hands out of 3 is 0.20^3 = 0.8% for odds against of about 125 to 1.

But what if I played every day for a year and was all in with AA three times everyday. What are the odds that on at least one of those days I would lose all three times?

ETA: Or better yet, 1,095 hands and I lose three in a row at any time.

Last edited by Didace; 12-05-2014 at 10:05 PM. Reason: Without doing it (because I'm lazy like that) I'm guessing it approaches 100%

Quote

12-06-2014 , 01:19 PM

AaronBrown

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 4,240

For the first question, take the probability of not losing all three on a given day, 124/125, and raise to the 365th power (assuming you play weekends and holidays as well as weekdays). That gives you the probability of surviving the year without ever losing all three in a day, 5.3%. Subtract from one to get 94.7%, your chance of it happening at least once.

With 1,095 hands you have 1,093 chances to lose three in a row. However, they are not independent, so the computation gets a bit tedious. It's about 99.98% chance of getting three in a row.

Quote

12-06-2014 , 01:51 PM

AaronBrown

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 4,240

The chance of losing your first three AA is 1/125 = 25/3,125.

The chance of losing your second three AA, given than you didn't lose the first three, is 20/3,125.

The chance of losing your third three AA (that is, from the third to the fifth hand), given that you didn't lose three in a row earlier, is 16/3,125. This is nearly the same for all future runs of three.

Therefore, the chance of going 1,095 without three losses in a row, is approximately:

(1 - 25/3,125)*(1 - 20/3,125)*(1 - 16/3,125)^1,091 = 0.36%

Not 0.02% as I posted above.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...