Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmit
I get your point. My original thing was when a player has a flush draw.
No that’s not quite what your original thing was. To remind you, here it is:
Quote:
People have a flush draw and how often they hit the flush. 1,000
All in hands. My initial guess is the flush will hit 70% of the time
Which we all know is very high. I will be doing this on bovada.
I will include my hands win or lose and hands of others I see.
I will love to see bovada reaction when the flush hits this often.
I am prepared to do multiple 1,000 all in samples. ALSo I am willing
To bet a substantial amount of money that every 1,000 all in
Sample will show flushes hitting much over 50%.
Thanks
Note I bolded all-in hands. That is critical. Apparently you are basing your greater than 50% hit probability on hands where you see the result. Clearly if a player hits his flush he is unlikely to fold so if his opponent also stays in you will see the flush hit. But if the flush card doesn’t fall, the player will likely fold so you don’t see the hand. Therefore you are not taking a representative sample for you are missing most of the times a player folds because he did not hit.
By specifiying all-in hands, there are no folds, and if the site shows ALL the all-in results , with a decent size sample, the hit chance will be close to the theoretical 35% unless the site is fooling around, Several posters have tried to explain this to you but you refuse to acknowledge it.
EDIT: I see that Strongfold is essentially saying the same thing.
Last edited by statmanhal; 10-12-2014 at 08:19 PM.